0x9b5d…fbb6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9b5dc8793a43f26295a0c8eec3e58b041989fbb6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

49% @ 44.9¢

Brier

0.173

Resolved

2441

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (489/1016)	+5%	1016
Politics	48% (39/81)	+16%	81
Geopolitics	85% (11/13)	+41%	13
Culture	18% (2/11)	-51%	11
Tech	75% (6/8)	+19%	8
Sports	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Economy	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+14%	4

Other1016 bets
Hit rate
48% (489/1016)
ROI
+5%
Politics81 bets
Hit rate
48% (39/81)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
85% (11/13)
ROI
+41%
Culture11 bets
Hit rate
18% (2/11)
ROI
-51%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+19%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+14%

Track record

48% hit · 549/1143

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 13?	Yes	$1	71.5¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	No	$28	65.9¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$6	25.0¢	Lost
Rams vs. Seahawks	Rams	$4	45.0¢	Lost
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$5	64.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$16	52.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	Yes	$40	34.8¢	Lost
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?	Yes	$8	39.5¢	Lost
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	$14	1.8¢	Lost
Will Poland win on 2025-10-12?	Yes	$1	71.0¢	Won
Canucks vs. Avalanche	Canucks	$1	42.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit?	No	$3	28.0¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$1	82.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 8?	Yes	$2	47.7¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	$23	84.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$137	77.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$40	21.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$20	41.6¢	Lost
Will Solana dip to $130 in November?	Yes	$1	61.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?	Yes	$3	33.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?	Yes	$3	3.4¢	Lost
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	3DMAX	$6	49.0¢	Won
Will Keir Starmer say "Gentleman" or "Lady" 6+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)	Yousri Belgaroui	$5	46.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	$2	76.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in October?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$3	69.0¢	Won
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?	Yes	$2	1.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21?	No	$6	76.3¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$16	32.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Corn" during Iowa speech?	No	$2	28.0¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Biden" 5+ times during the next press briefing?	Yes	$2	29.0¢	Won
US bank failure by March 31?	No	$7	73.0¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	No	$23	49.0¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Team Falcons	$24	52.2¢	Won
Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?	No	$4	20.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$2	39.0¢	Won
Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17?	Yes	$1	75.0¢	Won
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	No	$6	32.0¢	Won
Capitals vs. Kings	Capitals	$1	50.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 2?	Yes	$1	45.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8)	Yes	$3	56.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 4?	Yes	$3	57.3¢	Won
Seahawks vs. Falcons	Seahawks	$2	76.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$22	56.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	No	$2	43.0¢	Lost

Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 13?Won
Yes$1 @ 71.5¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Won
No$28 @ 65.9¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 25.0¢
Rams vs. SeahawksLost
Rams$4 @ 45.0¢
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$5 @ 64.0¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$16 @ 52.0¢
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?Lost
Yes$40 @ 34.8¢
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?Lost
Yes$8 @ 39.5¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Lost
No$14 @ 1.8¢
Will Poland win on 2025-10-12?Won
Yes$1 @ 71.0¢
Canucks vs. AvalancheLost
Canucks$1 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit?Won
No$3 @ 28.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$1 @ 82.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 8?Won
Yes$2 @ 47.7¢
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Won
Yes$23 @ 84.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$137 @ 77.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 21.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 41.6¢
Will Solana dip to $130 in November?Won
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Won
Yes$3 @ 33.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.4¢
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Won
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group AWon
3DMAX$6 @ 49.0¢
Will Keir Starmer say "Gentleman" or "Lady" 6+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)Won
Yousri Belgaroui$5 @ 46.0¢
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
Yes$2 @ 76.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in October?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?Won
Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21?Lost
No$6 @ 76.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$16 @ 32.4¢
Will Trump say "Corn" during Iowa speech?Won
No$2 @ 28.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Biden" 5+ times during the next press briefing?Won
Yes$2 @ 29.0¢
US bank failure by March 31?Lost
No$7 @ 73.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?Won
No$23 @ 49.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group AWon
Team Falcons$24 @ 52.2¢
Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?Won
No$4 @ 20.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$2 @ 39.0¢
Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17?Won
Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?Won
No$6 @ 32.0¢
Capitals vs. KingsWon
Capitals$1 @ 50.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 45.0¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8)Won
Yes$3 @ 56.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 4?Won
Yes$3 @ 57.3¢
Seahawks vs. FalconsWon
Seahawks$2 @ 76.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$22 @ 56.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Lost
No$2 @ 43.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$139	58.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$120	66.9¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?	Culture	Yes	$105	65.5¢
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	Culture	No	$69	91.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Politics	Yes	$60	29.9¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Culture	Yes	$59	53.6¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	Culture	Yes	$57	34.6¢
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	Culture	Yes	$53	52.5¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?	Culture	Yes	$39	24.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$25	25.0¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	Culture	Yes	$8	10.9¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?	Culture	Yes	$4	6.0¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$139 @ 58.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$120 @ 66.9¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?Culture
Yes$105 @ 65.5¢
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?Culture
No$69 @ 91.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Politics
Yes$60 @ 29.9¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Culture
Yes$59 @ 53.6¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?Culture
Yes$57 @ 34.6¢
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?Culture
Yes$53 @ 52.5¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?Culture
Yes$39 @ 24.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?Culture
Yes$8 @ 10.9¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?Culture
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢