0x9b22…3a92

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9b22f05eab284c3379ef2576019739e32a273a92
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.0pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

40% @ 31.7¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

537

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (34/95)	+27%	95
Politics	22% (7/32)	+23%	32
Geopolitics	17% (2/12)	-37%	12

Other95 bets
Hit rate
36% (34/95)
ROI
+27%
Politics32 bets
Hit rate
22% (7/32)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
17% (2/12)
ROI
-37%

Track record

31% hit · 43/139

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$9	35.4¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$76	46.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$73	20.1¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	14.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$7	22.6¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$13	25.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$4	5.8¢	Lost
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	6.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$19	23.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$5	13.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$255	71.7¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$2	15.3¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	$3	8.1¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$1	5.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$13	10.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	No	$5	15.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	$7	27.7¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?	Yes	$6	4.6¢	Lost
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?	No	$25	82.5¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$3	5.4¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	Yes	$11	55.7¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$35	38.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	13.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$31	28.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$7	14.3¢	Won
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?	No	$5	28.2¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?	Yes	$21	83.8¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$121	42.9¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$36	15.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$2	31.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$9	25.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$110	57.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$24	60.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$13	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$24	25.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$42	25.9¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$3	52.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$9	18.7¢	Lost
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	No	$16	35.7¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	39.8¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	$21	73.4¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$92	70.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$6	16.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$3	3.6¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	2.2¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	54.7¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$10	19.9¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Yes	$2	3.1¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	$5	26.0¢	Lost

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$9 @ 35.4¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$76 @ 46.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$73 @ 20.1¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 14.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$7 @ 22.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$13 @ 25.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.8¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 23.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$5 @ 13.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$255 @ 71.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.3¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 10.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
No$5 @ 15.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 27.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.6¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 82.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Won
Yes$11 @ 55.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 38.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$31 @ 28.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$7 @ 14.3¢
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Lost
No$5 @ 28.2¢
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Won
Yes$21 @ 83.8¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$121 @ 42.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$36 @ 15.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 31.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 25.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$110 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$24 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$13 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$24 @ 25.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$42 @ 25.9¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 52.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 18.7¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Lost
No$16 @ 35.7¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 39.8¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Won
No$21 @ 73.4¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$92 @ 70.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 16.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.2¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 54.7¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 19.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.1¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Lost
No$5 @ 26.0¢

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