← Smart money
0x9afe…062a
ProfitableEdge
+39.3pp
ROI
+86%
Win rate
83% @ 44.1¢
Brier
0.325
Resolved
139
Avg size
$104
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 69% (11/16) | +125% | 16 |
| Tech | 75% (3/4) | +13% | 4 |
| Politics | 33% (1/3) | -62% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (2/2) | +35% | 2 |
| Culture | 100% (2/2) | +94% | 2 |
- Other16 bets
- Hit rate
- 69% (11/16)
- ROI
- +125%
- Tech4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- +13%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- -62%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +35%
- Culture2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +94%
Track record
70% hit · 19/27- Yes$354 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$250 @ 50.0¢
- No$731 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$199 @ 79.6¢
- Yes$432 @ 47.0¢
- No$435 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$770 @ 77.0¢
- Yes$345 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$308 @ 29.7¢
- No$521 @ 87.0¢
- No$98 @ 49.0¢
- No$309 @ 74.4¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 24.8¢
- No$349 @ 23.9¢
- Yes$196 @ 68.7¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 45.9¢
- Yes$790 @ 79.0¢
- Yes$180 @ 18.0¢
- No$469 @ 64.3¢
- Yes$569 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$29 @ 33.5¢
- No$180 @ 34.9¢
- Yes$104 @ 9.5¢
- Yes$695 @ 37.7¢
- Yes$440 @ 44.0¢
- Yes$135 @ 37.3¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?WonYes$1.4k @ 52.7¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | Tech | Yes | $478 | 74.0¢ |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? | Politics | No | $306 | 17.9¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $305 | 61.0¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $284 | 71.0¢ |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31? | Politics | Yes | $254 | 62.0¢ |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $126 | 42.0¢ |
- Yes$478 @ 74.0¢
- No$306 @ 17.9¢
- Yes$305 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$284 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$254 @ 62.0¢
- Yes$126 @ 42.0¢