0x9af0…5816

Specialization by sphere

• Other23 bets

  Hit rate

  83% (19/23)

  ROI

  -4%

• Politics17 bets

  Hit rate

  94% (16/17)

  ROI

  +21%

• Geopolitics5 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (5/5)

  ROI

  +19%

• Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$44 @ 82.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
  No$29 @ 85.6¢
• Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$189 @ 85.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$14 @ 77.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
  No$10 @ 70.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 49.5¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$226 @ 79.6¢
• U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
  No$183 @ 88.2¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$78 @ 69.4¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
  Yes$102 @ 13.0¢
• Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$65 @ 80.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$99 @ 82.8¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
  Yes$13 @ 69.6¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$44 @ 56.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$135 @ 86.1¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$371 @ 79.7¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$1.7k @ 44.8¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$205 @ 74.5¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
  No$12 @ 56.0¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
  Yes$13 @ 42.9¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$322 @ 73.8¢
• Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$125 @ 81.7¢
• Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$127 @ 63.4¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
  No$128 @ 85.1¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Won
  No$176 @ 87.7¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
  Yes$95 @ 44.9¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$49 @ 26.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
  No$483 @ 71.7¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$262 @ 37.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$261 @ 69.8¢
• Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?Won
  No$324 @ 83.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$16 @ 90.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
  No$59 @ 76.9¢
• Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$90 @ 86.7¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Won
  Yes$54 @ 73.0¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
  Yes$600 @ 73.2¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?Won
  No$49 @ 76.8¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$132 @ 69.1¢
• Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?Lost
  No$110 @ 70.2¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?Won
  No$10 @ 53.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$16 @ 88.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$330 @ 41.0¢
• Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?Won
  No$11 @ 79.0¢
• Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30?Won
  No$117 @ 88.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
  No$94 @ 82.2¢

Current positions

• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$665 @ 63.2¢
• Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Politics
  No$620 @ 83.5¢
• Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$613 @ 85.8¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$587 @ 72.6¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$503 @ 68.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$494 @ 81.7¢
• Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?Geopolitics
  No$313 @ 92.6¢
• Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$225 @ 90.2¢
• Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Politics
  No$195 @ 80.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$161 @ 69.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$154 @ 95.0¢
• U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Politics
  No$151 @ 94.7¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$146 @ 79.8¢
• Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Politics
  No$113 @ 26.2¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Politics
  No$108 @ 88.9¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$105 @ 49.5¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$71 @ 68.9¢
• Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
  Yes$67 @ 62.6¢
• Trump meets with Putin by December 31?—
  No$67 @ 66.6¢
• Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
  Yes$66 @ 80.4¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$55 @ 98.7¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?Politics
  No$24 @ 81.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
  Yes$23 @ 41.5¢
• Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$13 @ 11.1¢
• Trump meets with Putin by September 30?—
  No$5 @ 79.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  Yes$2 @ 10.2¢