← Smart money
0x9aeb…2729
Edge
-1.4pp
ROI
+9%
Win rate
50% @ 51.2¢
Brier
0.209
Resolved
458
Avg size
$380
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 58% (129/221) | +13% | 221 |
| Politics | 56% (29/52) | +5% | 52 |
| Tech | 69% (22/32) | +8% | 32 |
| Geopolitics | 64% (7/11) | +22% | 11 |
| Sports | 56% (5/9) | -2% | 9 |
| Culture | 75% (6/8) | +26% | 8 |
| Economy | 80% (4/5) | +37% | 5 |
| Science | 50% (2/4) | +1% | 4 |
| Crypto | 67% (2/3) | +49% | 3 |
- Other221 bets
- Hit rate
- 58% (129/221)
- ROI
- +13%
- Politics52 bets
- Hit rate
- 56% (29/52)
- ROI
- +5%
- Tech32 bets
- Hit rate
- 69% (22/32)
- ROI
- +8%
- Geopolitics11 bets
- Hit rate
- 64% (7/11)
- ROI
- +22%
- Sports9 bets
- Hit rate
- 56% (5/9)
- ROI
- -2%
- Culture8 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (6/8)
- ROI
- +26%
- Economy5 bets
- Hit rate
- 80% (4/5)
- ROI
- +37%
- Science4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +1%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +49%
Track record
60% hit · 206/345- Yes$5.1k @ 43.6¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 87.0¢
- Patriots$320 @ 32.0¢
- Yes$30 @ 87.7¢
- Cowboys$1.5k @ 61.0¢
- Yes$190 @ 48.6¢
- Yes$864 @ 88.8¢
- Yes$288 @ 50.7¢
- No$3.4k @ 73.6¢
- Yes$72 @ 31.3¢
- No$26 @ 30.1¢
- Yes$199 @ 0.9¢
- No$882 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$187 @ 36.4¢
- Yes$28 @ 58.3¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 26.5¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 41.3¢
- Yes$140 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 85.7¢
- Lions vs. BillsLostLions$1.7k @ 31.0¢
- No$115 @ 10.0¢
- No$24 @ 79.0¢
- No$508 @ 27.7¢
- Yes$7.6k @ 68.3¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 72.5¢
- No$859 @ 14.7¢
- Yes$497 @ 39.1¢
- No$7 @ 18.0¢
- No$202 @ 70.3¢
- Yes$319 @ 88.8¢
- No$173 @ 43.2¢
- Yes$497 @ 56.9¢
- Spain$753 @ 72.3¢
- No$329 @ 72.0¢
- Yes$4.1k @ 87.0¢
- Yes$16.2k @ 80.5¢
- Minnesota Twins$129 @ 41.0¢
- Team Liquid$3.7k @ 37.0¢
- No$1.3k @ 87.0¢
- No$2.2k @ 77.0¢
- Yes$41 @ 81.6¢
- Yes$365 @ 20.3¢
- No$1.5k @ 49.6¢
- Yes$27 @ 1.1¢
- Under$476 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$538 @ 27.0¢
- Yes$214 @ 36.0¢
- Chicago Cubs$1.6k @ 66.0¢
- No$163 @ 52.7¢
- No$691 @ 53.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $3.4k | 84.0¢ |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1.5k | 56.0¢ |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Politics | Yes | $1.4k | 30.1¢ |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | Politics | No | $1.4k | 50.5¢ |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Culture | Yes | $1.3k | 67.9¢ |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Tech | No | $261 | 63.0¢ |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? | Politics | No | $170 | 62.4¢ |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Tech | No | $31 | 76.8¢ |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | Tech | Yes | $17 | 85.6¢ |
- No$3.4k @ 84.0¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 56.0¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 30.1¢
- No$1.4k @ 50.5¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 67.9¢
- No$261 @ 63.0¢
- No$170 @ 62.4¢
- No$31 @ 76.8¢
- Yes$17 @ 85.6¢