0x9aeb…2729

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9aeb534c42b58b21673d5e03e9da14fbd15b2729
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.5pp

ROI

+42%

Win rate

48% @ 40.9¢

Brier

0.150

Resolved

496

Avg size

$271

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (57/105)	+18%	105
Politics	57% (13/23)	+48%	23
Tech	58% (7/12)	+17%	12
Science	50% (2/4)	+1%	4
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	-24%	4
Sports	67% (2/3)	+5%	3
Culture	33% (1/3)	-29%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+49%	3
Economy	50% (1/2)	+7%	2

Other105 bets
Hit rate
54% (57/105)
ROI
+18%
Politics23 bets
Hit rate
57% (13/23)
ROI
+48%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
+17%
Science4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-24%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+5%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-29%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+49%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+7%

Track record

55% hit · 87/159

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$1.9k	62.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$1.3k	69.7¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	$245	50.2¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$586	5.8¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	84.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$310	16.4¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$197	3.9¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$569	71.0¢	Won
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	$343	66.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$4.7k	61.9¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$291	85.0¢	Won
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	No	$144	51.5¢	Won
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	Yes	$2.0k	27.6¢	Lost
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	$161	45.7¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Yes	$468	41.1¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$139	69.3¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?	No	$2.4k	85.6¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$644	79.2¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$235	13.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 24?	No	$311	88.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	17.6¢	Lost
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	Yes	$987	21.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2?	Yes	$117	72.0¢	Won
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$434	9.8¢	Lost
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$58	9.8¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?	No	$322	65.6¢	Won
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$676	56.1¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$143	46.0¢	Won
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m?	Yes	$100	27.6¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	13.0¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	$1.8k	40.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 31?	Yes	$26	20.0¢	Lost
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?	Yes	$26	53.0¢	Lost
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$324	8.2¢	Lost
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 12.5m?	Yes	$85	76.8¢	Won
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$243	3.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10?	Yes	$82	30.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.6k	24.8¢	Won
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	88.1¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	$59	59.8¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	$4.5k	66.1¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$855	63.9¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$1.7k	38.8¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$215	60.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7?	Yes	$2	19.9¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$16.1k	82.4¢	Won
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	$686	39.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 28?	Yes	$59	62.9¢	Won
James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	$403	67.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$737	13.5¢	Lost

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$1.9k @ 62.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 69.7¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Won
No$245 @ 50.2¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$586 @ 5.8¢
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 84.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$310 @ 16.4¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$197 @ 3.9¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$569 @ 71.0¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?Won
No$343 @ 66.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$4.7k @ 61.9¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$291 @ 85.0¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Won
No$144 @ 51.5¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 27.6¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Won
No$161 @ 45.7¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Lost
Yes$468 @ 41.1¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$139 @ 69.3¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?Won
No$2.4k @ 85.6¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
No$644 @ 79.2¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$235 @ 13.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 24?Won
No$311 @ 88.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 17.6¢
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?Lost
Yes$987 @ 21.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2?Won
Yes$117 @ 72.0¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$434 @ 9.8¢
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$58 @ 9.8¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?Won
No$322 @ 65.6¢
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$676 @ 56.1¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$143 @ 46.0¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m?Lost
Yes$100 @ 27.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 13.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?Won
No$1.8k @ 40.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 20.0¢
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?Lost
Yes$26 @ 53.0¢
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$324 @ 8.2¢
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 12.5m?Won
Yes$85 @ 76.8¢
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$243 @ 3.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10?Won
Yes$82 @ 30.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 24.8¢
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 88.1¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Lost
No$59 @ 59.8¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Won
Yes$4.5k @ 66.1¢
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
Yes$855 @ 63.9¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$1.7k @ 38.8¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$215 @ 60.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.9¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$16.1k @ 82.4¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Lost
No$686 @ 39.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 28?Won
Yes$59 @ 62.9¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Won
Yes$403 @ 67.5¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$737 @ 13.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	56.0¢
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.4k	88.1¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	30.1¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.0k	95.9¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$474	5.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$265	75.9¢
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$261	63.0¢
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?	Culture	No	$257	93.4¢
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?	Culture	Yes	$237	70.6¢
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$182	86.6¢
Will Trump nationalize elections?	Politics	No	$170	62.4¢
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?	Culture	No	$164	74.3¢
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?	—	Yes	$158	70.0¢
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?	Culture	Yes	$76	75.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$58	92.2¢
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Tech	Yes	$39	78.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	—	Yes	$18	85.6¢

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 56.0¢
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.4k @ 88.1¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 30.1¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?Tech
No$1.0k @ 95.9¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?—
No$474 @ 5.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$265 @ 75.9¢
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$261 @ 63.0¢
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?Culture
No$257 @ 93.4¢
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?Culture
Yes$237 @ 70.6¢
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?—
No$182 @ 86.6¢
Will Trump nationalize elections?Politics
No$170 @ 62.4¢
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?Culture
No$164 @ 74.3¢
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?—
Yes$158 @ 70.0¢
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?Culture
Yes$76 @ 75.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$58 @ 92.2¢
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech
Yes$39 @ 78.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?—
Yes$18 @ 85.6¢