0x9998…e858

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x99984e22205053950eb25453779267bcc1aee858
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.8pp

ROI

+46%

Win rate

34% @ 21.4¢

Brier

0.213

Resolved

4065

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (654/1682)	+46%	1682
Politics	46% (25/54)	-21%	54
Sports	57% (16/28)	+34%	28
Crypto	56% (9/16)	+68%	16
Tech	42% (5/12)	+1%	12
Geopolitics	89% (8/9)	+806%	9
Culture	38% (3/8)	+2%	8
Economy	100% (1/1)	+257%	1

Other1682 bets
Hit rate
39% (654/1682)
ROI
+46%
Politics54 bets
Hit rate
46% (25/54)
ROI
-21%
Sports28 bets
Hit rate
57% (16/28)
ROI
+34%
Crypto16 bets
Hit rate
56% (9/16)
ROI
+68%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
42% (5/12)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
89% (8/9)
ROI
+806%
Culture8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
+2%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+257%

Track record

40% hit · 721/1810

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
North Korean soldier caught in Ukraine before May?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will AllianceBernstein (AB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Will AllianceBernstein (AB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Won
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?	No	$7	40.0¢	Won
Yoon arrested before September?	No	$4	12.0¢	Lost
Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?	Yes	$5	4.7¢	Lost
Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by August 31?	Yes	$4	21.0¢	Lost
Will WD-40 Company (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$0	3.4¢	Lost
Will WD-40 Company (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$0	21.0¢	Won
GPT ads by December 31?	No	$10	49.0¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	Yes	$0	7.0¢	Lost
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31?	Yes	$21	10.5¢	Won
Jerome Powell federally charged by August 31?	Yes	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Ethereum all time high before October?	Yes	$4	9.6¢	Won
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?	No	$4	45.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?	Yes	$52	32.7¢	Lost
Stefon Diggs suspended this season?	Yes	$16	53.0¢	Lost
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?	Yes	$10	11.0¢	Lost
Dogecoin above $0.16 on April 25?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Won
Poilievre resigns as leader of Conservatives before June?	No	$1	27.0¢	Won
Clavicular unbanned from Kick by January 31?	No	$18	35.1¢	Lost
James Comey’s indictment dismissed before trial?	Yes	$11	54.0¢	Won
UFC Fight Night Parlay: Lewis + Thompson	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	No	$15	61.0¢	Won
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$3	20.0¢	Lost
Trump x Xi talk before July?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?	No	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Won
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?	No	$18	35.0¢	Lost
Will FIFA ban or suspend Israel in 2025?	No	$18	61.0¢	Won
Trump meets with Carney before June?	No	$5	10.4¢	Lost
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?	No	$30	54.4¢	Won
Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by May 31?	Yes	$4	18.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?	Yes	$1	4.8¢	Lost
Boxing: Will Usyk win by KO/TKO/DQ?	No	$52	47.5¢	Lost
Next French confidence vote passes?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Lost
Epstein client list released in 2025?	No	$18	33.0¢	Won
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?	No	$1	34.0¢	Won
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?	No	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?	Yes	$5	48.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?	Yes	$5	26.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	No	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1?	No	$0	25.4¢	Won
US bank failure by March 31?	No	$38	49.0¢	Lost
India strike on Pakistan by August 31?	Yes	$4	5.6¢	Lost
EWC CS2 2026: IGL to Win a 1v3+ Clutch?	No	$3	11.0¢	Lost
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?	No	$3	21.0¢	Won
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price by March 31, 2026?	No	$18	17.6¢	Lost
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall	Fury	$53	64.2¢	Won
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall	Hall	$11	27.0¢	Lost

North Korean soldier caught in Ukraine before May?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will AllianceBernstein (AB) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$0 @ 3.0¢
Will AllianceBernstein (AB) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?Won
No$7 @ 40.0¢
Yoon arrested before September?Lost
No$4 @ 12.0¢
Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.7¢
Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by August 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 21.0¢
Will WD-40 Company (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$0 @ 3.4¢
Will WD-40 Company (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$0 @ 21.0¢
GPT ads by December 31?Won
No$10 @ 49.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 7.0¢
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31?Won
Yes$21 @ 10.5¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by August 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Ethereum all time high before October?Won
Yes$4 @ 9.6¢
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?Won
No$4 @ 45.2¢
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?Lost
Yes$52 @ 32.7¢
Stefon Diggs suspended this season?Lost
Yes$16 @ 53.0¢
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 11.0¢
Dogecoin above $0.16 on April 25?Won
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Poilievre resigns as leader of Conservatives before June?Won
No$1 @ 27.0¢
Clavicular unbanned from Kick by January 31?Lost
No$18 @ 35.1¢
James Comey’s indictment dismissed before trial?Won
Yes$11 @ 54.0¢
UFC Fight Night Parlay: Lewis + Thompson Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will Base launch a token in 2025?Won
No$15 @ 61.0¢
Will Base launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$3 @ 20.0¢
Trump x Xi talk before July?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?Lost
No$3 @ 3.0¢
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?Won
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?Lost
No$18 @ 35.0¢
Will FIFA ban or suspend Israel in 2025?Won
No$18 @ 61.0¢
Trump meets with Carney before June?Lost
No$5 @ 10.4¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
No$30 @ 54.4¢
Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by May 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 18.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.8¢
Boxing: Will Usyk win by KO/TKO/DQ?Lost
No$52 @ 47.5¢
Next French confidence vote passes?Lost
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
No$18 @ 33.0¢
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 34.0¢
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?Lost
No$5 @ 9.0¢
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 48.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 26.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Lost
No$1 @ 8.0¢
Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1?Won
No$0 @ 25.4¢
US bank failure by March 31?Lost
No$38 @ 49.0¢
India strike on Pakistan by August 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.6¢
EWC CS2 2026: IGL to Win a 1v3+ Clutch?Lost
No$3 @ 11.0¢
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?Won
No$3 @ 21.0¢
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 17.6¢
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie HallWon
Fury$53 @ 64.2¢
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie HallLost
Hall$11 @ 27.0¢

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