← Smart money
0x9951…11bd
SharpEdge
+23.7pp
ROI
+23%
Win rate
95% @ 71.3¢
Brier
0.098
Resolved
40
Avg size
$759
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 100% (6/6) | +20% | 6 |
| Politics | 100% (3/3) | +17% | 3 |
| Tech | 50% (1/2) | +76% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +34% | 1 |
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (6/6)
- ROI
- +20%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +17%
- Tech2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +76%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +34%
Track record
92% hit · 11/12| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | Yes | $29 | 72.4¢ | Won |
| Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? | No | $5.6k | 74.5¢ | Won |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | $5.9k | 86.0¢ | Won |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | Yes | $145 | 31.3¢ | Lost |
| Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? | Yes | $182 | 79.6¢ | Won |
| Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31? | No | $2.2k | 88.9¢ | Won |
| Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? | Yes | $6.0k | 82.2¢ | Won |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | No | $932 | 83.0¢ | Won |
| Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m? | Yes | $11 | 51.0¢ | Won |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | $8.6k | 86.0¢ | Won |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Yes | $718 | 47.2¢ | Won |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | $79 | 50.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$29 @ 72.4¢
- No$5.6k @ 74.5¢
- No$5.9k @ 86.0¢
- Yes$145 @ 31.3¢
- Yes$182 @ 79.6¢
- No$2.2k @ 88.9¢
- Yes$6.0k @ 82.2¢
- No$932 @ 83.0¢
- Yes$11 @ 51.0¢
- Yes$8.6k @ 86.0¢
- Yes$718 @ 47.2¢
- No$79 @ 50.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $8.5k | 86.0¢ |
| Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? | Culture | No | $6.5k | 89.0¢ |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Politics | No | $5.9k | 86.0¢ |
| Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? | Culture | Yes | $1.7k | 88.3¢ |
| Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? | Politics | Yes | $26 | 95.0¢ |
- Yes$8.5k @ 86.0¢
- No$6.5k @ 89.0¢
- No$5.9k @ 86.0¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 88.3¢
- Yes$26 @ 95.0¢