← Smart money
0x9826…e7fe
SharpEdge
-5.0pp
ROI
+8%
Win rate
33% @ 37.6¢
Brier
0.163
Resolved
1103
Avg size
$217
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 52% (34/65) | +11% | 65 |
| Other | 51% (30/59) | +3% | 59 |
| Politics | 59% (10/17) | +17% | 17 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (4/4) | +24% | 4 |
- Sports65 bets
- Hit rate
- 52% (34/65)
- ROI
- +11%
- Other59 bets
- Hit rate
- 51% (30/59)
- ROI
- +3%
- Politics17 bets
- Hit rate
- 59% (10/17)
- ROI
- +17%
- Geopolitics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (4/4)
- ROI
- +24%
Track record
54% hit · 78/145- No$1.3k @ 51.0¢
- No$40 @ 40.0¢
- No$76 @ 58.0¢
- No$536 @ 67.0¢
- Over$171 @ 57.0¢
- No$146 @ 73.0¢
- Over$180 @ 60.0¢
- No$2.6k @ 85.2¢
- Yes$39 @ 19.4¢
- Yes$3.4k @ 37.5¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 70.0¢
- No$917 @ 91.7¢
- Yes$515 @ 10.3¢
- Yes$18 @ 0.9¢
- No$360 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$960 @ 10.0¢
- No$3.8k @ 77.0¢
- Yes$136 @ 27.3¢
- Yes$3.4k @ 34.3¢
- No$653 @ 82.0¢
- No$3.5k @ 49.8¢
- No$1.6k @ 40.7¢
- Yes$113 @ 5.0¢
- No$376 @ 94.1¢
- Yes$75 @ 5.7¢
- No$250 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$856 @ 95.1¢
- No$9.7k @ 96.5¢
- Yes$260 @ 2.6¢
- Yes$7 @ 2.4¢
- No$63 @ 99.2¢
- Argentina$93 @ 93.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 98.5¢
- No$500 @ 96.1¢
- Under$1.4k @ 93.0¢
- Canada$266 @ 74.0¢
- No$365 @ 73.0¢
- Under$44 @ 89.0¢
- No$453 @ 90.7¢
- No$54 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$560 @ 56.0¢
- Yes$156 @ 30.0¢
- No$270 @ 90.0¢
- No$154 @ 88.9¢
- Yes$4.3k @ 39.0¢
- No$3.5k @ 34.0¢
- No$4.9k @ 40.5¢
- No$1.4k @ 23.0¢
- No$3.5k @ 58.0¢
- Yes$5.4k @ 40.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $4.0k | 88.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $1.6k | 83.0¢ |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $1.5k | 94.0¢ |
| Will Lauren Boebert resign by October 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $1.3k | 94.6¢ |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $800 | 80.0¢ |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Economy | No | $780 | 86.6¢ |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $771 | 91.9¢ |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $647 | 87.3¢ |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $448 | 80.0¢ |
| Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5) | Sports | Levante UD | $316 | 79.0¢ |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | Sports | No | $16 | 81.0¢ |
- Yes$4.0k @ 88.0¢
- No$1.6k @ 83.0¢
- No$1.5k @ 94.0¢
- No$1.3k @ 94.6¢
- No$800 @ 80.0¢
- No$780 @ 86.6¢
- No$771 @ 91.9¢
- No$647 @ 87.3¢
- Yes$448 @ 80.0¢
- Levante UD$316 @ 79.0¢
- No$16 @ 81.0¢