0x97d3…3f3c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x97d37d16d1774785197bfa23ffed625a8e493f3c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.5pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

69% @ 61.6¢

Brier

0.131

Resolved

1685

Avg size

$44

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (26/44)	-2%	44
Politics	70% (30/43)	+29%	43
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+16%	3

Other44 bets
Hit rate
59% (26/44)
ROI
-2%
Politics43 bets
Hit rate
70% (30/43)
ROI
+29%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+16%

Track record

66% hit · 59/90

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$172	26.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	67.5¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	No	$292	86.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.0k	60.9¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$116	58.0¢	Lost
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$264	57.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	42.8¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$166	83.0¢	Won
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$8	5.6¢	Lost
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$231	23.6¢	Lost
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?	Yes	$199	86.6¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	$633	87.3¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June?	No	$18	82.7¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$100	84.5¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$358	9.6¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	No	$453	89.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$5.8k	73.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$298	58.0¢	Won
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	No	$61	85.0¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?	No	$120	85.9¢	Won
Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$436	81.9¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$2.3k	79.4¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	53.4¢	Won
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?	No	$37	85.5¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$345	83.4¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$21	11.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$312	34.5¢	Won
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$155	27.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$484	68.7¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$726	31.5¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$242	19.2¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.6k	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$3.2k	65.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	43.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$105	40.6¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$372	77.9¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$883	28.7¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	No	$18	20.0¢	Lost
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?	No	$37	85.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	$133	88.3¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	$9.3k	79.5¢	Won
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	$403	88.2¢	Won
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	$1.5k	84.4¢	Won
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$1.3k	71.4¢	Won
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$676	14.3¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?	Yes	$7	11.8¢	Lost

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$172 @ 26.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 67.5¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Won
No$292 @ 86.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.0k @ 60.9¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$116 @ 58.0¢
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$264 @ 57.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 42.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 5.6¢
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$231 @ 23.6¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?Won
Yes$199 @ 86.6¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Won
No$633 @ 87.3¢
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June?Won
No$18 @ 82.7¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 84.5¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$358 @ 9.6¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Won
No$453 @ 89.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$5.8k @ 73.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$298 @ 58.0¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?Won
No$61 @ 85.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?Won
No$120 @ 85.9¢
Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$436 @ 81.9¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$2.3k @ 79.4¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 53.4¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?Won
No$37 @ 85.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$345 @ 83.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$21 @ 11.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$312 @ 34.5¢
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$155 @ 27.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$484 @ 68.7¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$726 @ 31.5¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$242 @ 19.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$3.2k @ 65.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 43.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$105 @ 40.6¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$372 @ 77.9¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$883 @ 28.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Lost
No$18 @ 20.0¢
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?Won
No$37 @ 85.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Won
No$133 @ 88.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$9.3k @ 79.5¢
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$403 @ 88.2¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Won
No$1.5k @ 84.4¢
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 71.4¢
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$676 @ 14.3¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 11.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.6k	85.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$937	77.7¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Politics	No	$454	91.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$410	28.6¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$405	63.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$309	57.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$308	90.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$296	57.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$281	51.6¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	Yes	$274	91.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$246	50.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$233	94.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$212	58.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$199	83.8¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$178	74.0¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31?	—	Yes	$172	86.0¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$166	91.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$138	34.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$124	60.3¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$95	95.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?	Politics	Yes	$59	78.0¢
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$49	83.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$47	93.2¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$31	2.5¢
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$27	92.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$23	25.9¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$17	9.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$4	88.9¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.6k @ 85.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$937 @ 77.7¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?Politics
No$454 @ 91.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$410 @ 28.6¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$405 @ 63.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$309 @ 57.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$308 @ 90.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$296 @ 57.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$281 @ 51.6¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
Yes$274 @ 91.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$246 @ 50.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$233 @ 94.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$212 @ 58.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$199 @ 83.8¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$178 @ 74.0¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31?—
Yes$172 @ 86.0¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$166 @ 91.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$138 @ 34.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$124 @ 60.3¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$95 @ 95.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?Politics
Yes$59 @ 78.0¢
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$49 @ 83.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$47 @ 93.2¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?Politics
Yes$31 @ 2.5¢
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$27 @ 92.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$23 @ 25.9¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$17 @ 9.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?Geopolitics
No$4 @ 88.9¢