0x9648…6825

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics214 bets

  Hit rate

  42% (89/214)

  ROI

  +28%

• Other28 bets

  Hit rate

  46% (13/28)

  ROI

  +3%

• Geopolitics27 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (9/27)

  ROI

  -9%

• Tech16 bets

  Hit rate

  31% (5/16)

  ROI

  -8%

• Culture9 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (3/9)

  ROI

  -34%

• Economy6 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (2/6)

  ROI

  +36%

• Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
• Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Won
  No$68 @ 62.6¢
• Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$890 @ 33.0¢
• Will André do Prado win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
  No$1.8k @ 7.1¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
  Yes$6.2k @ 84.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Lost
  No$589 @ 9.0¢
• Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
  No$1.0k @ 23.0¢
• Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Lost
  Yes$434 @ 11.0¢
• Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Lost
  No$1.3k @ 18.6¢
• Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Won
  Yes$1.2k @ 63.5¢
• Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Won
  Yes$20.8k @ 29.9¢
• Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?Lost
  Yes$625 @ 10.7¢
• Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Lost
  No$37 @ 21.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
  No$3.6k @ 80.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$1.3k @ 29.0¢
• Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Lost
  No$1.0k @ 19.4¢
• Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?Lost
  Yes$1.8k @ 21.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$68.0k @ 87.4¢
• Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Won
  Yes$3.1k @ 65.8¢
• Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?Lost
  Yes$353 @ 7.1¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$3.7k @ 23.2¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$14.7k @ 79.9¢
• Will Sandro Alex win the Governor of Paraná election?Won
  No$405 @ 72.0¢
• Will Sandro Alex win the Governor of Paraná election?Lost
  Yes$22 @ 19.0¢
• 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?Won
  Yes$669 @ 32.0¢
• Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?Lost
  No$1.9k @ 13.5¢
• Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Lost
  No$579 @ 33.1¢
• Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
  Yes$388 @ 7.1¢
• Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?Won
  No$6.2k @ 86.8¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
  No$4.1k @ 26.9¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
  Yes$12.6k @ 68.7¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$194 @ 4.0¢
• Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$4.4k @ 59.5¢
• Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$2.5k @ 34.8¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Won
  Yes$620 @ 18.4¢
• Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?Won
  Yes$524 @ 67.3¢
• Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?Won
  No$8.4k @ 82.5¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Won
  No$72 @ 71.0¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
  Yes$902 @ 28.0¢
• Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Won
  Yes$71 @ 63.0¢
• Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 80-82%?Lost
  No$3.8k @ 84.0¢
• Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
  Yes$3.2k @ 42.7¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Lost
  No$450 @ 3.6¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Won
  Yes$1.1k @ 89.0¢
• Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
  Yes$93 @ 5.5¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Lost
  Yes$78 @ 2.1¢
• Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?Lost
  No$1.1k @ 50.0¢
• Will Renan Santos win less than 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$384 @ 89.9¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 0.3¢

Current positions

• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
  Yes$231.0k @ 84.1¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$121.3k @ 89.1¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  No$81.5k @ 60.4¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$49.6k @ 59.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$38.2k @ 39.0¢
• Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$33.7k @ 74.2¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
  No$33.7k @ 75.9¢
• Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$32.7k @ 88.1¢
• Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$29.2k @ 59.4¢
• Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$27.8k @ 59.5¢
• Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
  No$20.5k @ 50.8¢
• Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Politics
  No$20.3k @ 61.5¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$20.0k @ 71.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$18.5k @ 43.7¢
• Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$16.2k @ 72.6¢
• Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?Politics
  Yes$15.5k @ 74.9¢
• Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$15.1k @ 71.7¢
• Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$14.7k @ 82.9¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Politics
  No$14.0k @ 80.3¢
• Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$12.7k @ 86.0¢
• Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Politics
  No$12.6k @ 81.8¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Politics
  No$12.4k @ 65.6¢
• Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  No$11.3k @ 83.7¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  Yes$10.4k @ 19.3¢
• Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Politics
  No$10.4k @ 32.0¢
• No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
  Yes$9.7k @ 23.2¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?Politics
  No$8.6k @ 61.5¢
• Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?Politics
  No$8.4k @ 82.5¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
  No$7.3k @ 38.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$6.6k @ 86.4¢