0x961b…2b00

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x961b2866b349bad732c6fce081af9090be4d2b00
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.3pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

28% @ 23.7¢

Brier

0.135

Resolved

761

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	51% (43/85)	+13%	85
Other	53% (37/70)	+34%	70
Economy	23% (11/48)	-18%	48
Science	38% (15/39)	-4%	39
Geopolitics	48% (11/23)	+31%	23
Tech	75% (6/8)	+103%	8
Sports	43% (3/7)	+33%	7
Culture	50% (1/2)	+236%	2

Politics85 bets
Hit rate
51% (43/85)
ROI
+13%
Other70 bets
Hit rate
53% (37/70)
ROI
+34%
Economy48 bets
Hit rate
23% (11/48)
ROI
-18%
Science39 bets
Hit rate
38% (15/39)
ROI
-4%
Geopolitics23 bets
Hit rate
48% (11/23)
ROI
+31%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+103%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+33%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+236%

Track record

45% hit · 127/282

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Arnab peak as a very severe cyclonic storm?	No	$3	14.0¢	Lost
Will DoorDash acquire Instacart in 2026?	Yes	$3	55.0¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	$20	65.0¢	Won
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$15	43.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hyperliquid" in September?	No	$25	54.0¢	Won
Will Trudy peak at Category 4?	Yes	$32	42.9¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in September?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	$20	61.6¢	Won
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	$20	13.9¢	Won
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30?	Meta	$5	34.0¢	Won
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 14, 2026?	Yes	$10	21.0¢	Won
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	Yes	$4	1.0¢	Lost
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall	Fury	$30	61.0¢	Won
Will Zacharia say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	$15	51.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week?	Yes	$12	13.0¢	Lost
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	Yes	$10	21.0¢	Won
Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?	Yes	$5	3.0¢	Lost
Will Trudy peak at Category 2?	Yes	$7	3.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Coal" during his remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium?	Yes	$15	35.0¢	Lost
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in September?	No	$16	81.0¢	Won
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in September?	Yes	$8	6.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	$15	29.0¢	Lost
Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?	No	$10	15.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in September?	Yes	$4	1.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$10	28.8¢	Lost
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.0% or less in September?	Yes	$1	1.8¢	Lost
FDA approves Elevar Therapeutics' Rivoceranib + camrelizumab?	Yes	$10	29.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$11	64.8¢	Won
Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in September?	No	$22	83.0¢	Won
Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in September?	Yes	$1	3.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$15	55.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Milk" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	$4	65.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	No	$12	61.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	Yes	$20	37.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump's tie be red?	No	$0	28.0¢	Won
Will Zacharia say "Go Ahead" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	$15	46.0¢	Lost
Will Zacharia say "Iran" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	$15	35.0¢	Lost
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	$25	68.7¢	Won
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	Yes	$1	8.1¢	Lost
Will Choi-wan peak as a Very strong typhoon?	Yes	$30	33.6¢	Won
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	Yes	$15	33.2¢	Won
Trump alleges Georgia foreign election interference by July 16?	No	$12	39.3¢	Won
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	28.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during his remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium?	Yes	$15	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tractor" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	No	$10	41.0¢	Lost
What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)	Yes	$20	55.0¢	Won
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week?	Yes	$2	19.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Fake News" during his announcement?	Yes	$15	54.0¢	Won
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?	Yes	$25	71.0¢	Won

Will Arnab peak as a very severe cyclonic storm?Lost
No$3 @ 14.0¢
Will DoorDash acquire Instacart in 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 55.0¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Won
Yes$20 @ 65.0¢
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 43.7¢
Will Trump say "Hyperliquid" in September?Won
No$25 @ 54.0¢
Will Trudy peak at Category 4?Lost
Yes$32 @ 42.9¢
Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in September?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Won
Yes$20 @ 61.6¢
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Won
Yes$20 @ 13.9¢
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30?Won
Meta$5 @ 34.0¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 14, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.0¢
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie HallWon
Fury$30 @ 61.0¢
Will Zacharia say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next White House Press Briefing?Lost
Yes$15 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week?Lost
Yes$12 @ 13.0¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Won
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.0¢
Will Trudy peak at Category 2?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump say "Coal" during his remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium?Lost
Yes$15 @ 35.0¢
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in September?Won
No$16 @ 81.0¢
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in September?Lost
Yes$8 @ 6.4¢
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?Lost
No$15 @ 29.0¢
Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?Lost
No$10 @ 15.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in September?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.3¢
Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
Yes$10 @ 28.8¢
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.0% or less in September?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
FDA approves Elevar Therapeutics' Rivoceranib + camrelizumab?Lost
Yes$10 @ 29.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$11 @ 64.8¢
Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in September?Won
No$22 @ 83.0¢
Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in September?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.3¢
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
Yes$15 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump say "Milk" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?Won
No$4 @ 65.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?Won
No$12 @ 61.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?Lost
Yes$20 @ 37.0¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be red?Won
No$0 @ 28.0¢
Will Zacharia say "Go Ahead" during the next White House Press Briefing?Lost
Yes$15 @ 46.0¢
Will Zacharia say "Iran" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?Lost
Yes$15 @ 35.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
Yes$25 @ 68.7¢
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.1¢
Will Choi-wan peak as a Very strong typhoon?Won
Yes$30 @ 33.6¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 33.2¢
Trump alleges Georgia foreign election interference by July 16?Won
No$12 @ 39.3¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$7 @ 28.0¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during his remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium?Won
Yes$15 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump say "Tractor" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?Lost
No$10 @ 41.0¢
What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)Won
Yes$20 @ 55.0¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week?Won
Yes$2 @ 19.5¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during his announcement?Won
Yes$15 @ 54.0¢
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?Won
Yes$25 @ 71.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 51.0 or higher?	Economy	Yes	$50	85.0¢
Mamdani announces reparations by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$50	66.6¢
Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?	Politics	No	$45	39.9¢
Elon Musk meets with Putin by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$40	77.5¢
Elon Musk meets with Putin by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$40	81.0¢
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	Politics	No	$40	88.5¢
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	Politics	No	$40	88.0¢
Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	Politics	No	$40	65.0¢
Supreme Court sides with Catholic preschools in Colorado funding case?	Politics	Yes	$40	61.0¢
María Corina Machado arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$40	84.0¢
Maryland passes redistricting requirements ballot measure?	Politics	No	$35	38.2¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $1B in domestic box office in 2026?	Culture	No	$30	80.2¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?	Politics	Yes	$30	35.4¢
Netanyahu out before the next Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?	Politics	No	$30	75.0¢
Danielle Smith out as Premier of Alberta by March 31?	Politics	No	$30	80.9¢
Supreme Court revives Arizona's proof-of-citizenship voting rules?	Politics	Yes	$30	71.0¢
Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	Economy	No	$30	76.0¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Andrey Gyurov win Bulgaria?	Politics	No	$30	76.0¢
ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31?	Politics	No	$30	70.5¢
EU debt downgrade before 2027?	Politics	No	$30	85.0¢
Turkey military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$30	85.0¢
Danielle Smith out as Premier of Alberta by November 30?	Politics	No	$30	85.3¢
Turkish troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	79.0¢
Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Science	No	$30	28.9¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Science	Yes	$30	26.9¢
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?	Politics	No	$30	85.0¢
Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?	Politics	No	$30	69.0¢
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?	Politics	No	$30	60.3¢
Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 52.0 or higher?	Economy	Yes	$30	67.0¢
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026?	Culture	No	$30	68.6¢

Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 51.0 or higher?Economy
Yes$50 @ 85.0¢
Mamdani announces reparations by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$50 @ 66.6¢
Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?Politics
No$45 @ 39.9¢
Elon Musk meets with Putin by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 77.5¢
Elon Musk meets with Putin by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$40 @ 81.0¢
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?Politics
No$40 @ 88.5¢
Israeli Knesset election annulled?Politics
No$40 @ 88.0¢
Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?Politics
No$40 @ 65.0¢
Supreme Court sides with Catholic preschools in Colorado funding case?Politics
Yes$40 @ 61.0¢
María Corina Machado arrested before 2027?Politics
No$40 @ 84.0¢
Maryland passes redistricting requirements ballot measure?Politics
No$35 @ 38.2¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $1B in domestic box office in 2026?Culture
No$30 @ 80.2¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?Politics
Yes$30 @ 35.4¢
Netanyahu out before the next Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?Politics
No$30 @ 75.0¢
Danielle Smith out as Premier of Alberta by March 31?Politics
No$30 @ 80.9¢
Supreme Court revives Arizona's proof-of-citizenship voting rules?Politics
Yes$30 @ 71.0¢
Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?Economy
No$30 @ 76.0¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Andrey Gyurov win Bulgaria?Politics
No$30 @ 76.0¢
ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31?Politics
No$30 @ 70.5¢
EU debt downgrade before 2027?Politics
No$30 @ 85.0¢
Turkey military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$30 @ 85.0¢
Danielle Smith out as Premier of Alberta by November 30?Politics
No$30 @ 85.3¢
Turkish troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 79.0¢
Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?Science
No$30 @ 28.9¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?Science
Yes$30 @ 26.9¢
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?Politics
No$30 @ 85.0¢
Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?Politics
No$30 @ 69.0¢
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 60.3¢
Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 52.0 or higher?Economy
Yes$30 @ 67.0¢
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026?Culture
No$30 @ 68.6¢