0x95fd…7e04

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x95fd19c46ea2c3e125233feed31dfca6e7a57e04
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.7pp

ROI

+122%

Win rate

43% @ 25.1¢

Brier

0.137

Resolved

388

Avg size

$41

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (13/35)	+145%	35
Sports	39% (7/18)	+15%	18
Politics	75% (3/4)	+24%	4
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	+25%	4

Other35 bets
Hit rate
37% (13/35)
ROI
+145%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
+15%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+25%

Track record

39% hit · 24/61

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	14.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$7	58.1¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$131	29.0¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$45	45.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	Yes	$50	2.2¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$5.7k	73.9¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$6	1.1¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$164	10.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$100	16.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	15.7¢	Won
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$130	65.0¢	Won
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$83	76.0¢	Won
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$150	30.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Won
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$31	23.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$16	2.0¢	Lost
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$20	3.4¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$56	2.8¢	Lost
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$89	88.9¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Lost
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	$11	44.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$5	0.8¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 10, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$33	1.1¢	Lost
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?	Yes	$1	4.2¢	Won
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$9	2.4¢	Lost
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$21	50.0¢	Won
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	3.4¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?	Yes	$6	4.0¢	Lost
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	2.6¢	Lost
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?	No	$398	66.2¢	Won
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	$5	36.0¢	Lost
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$3.7k	46.6¢	Won
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$13	51.0¢	Won
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$7	16.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$10	10.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	No	$120	38.0¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?	Yes	$11	0.6¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	$131	84.0¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$37	1.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	No	$932	74.6¢	Won
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?	Yes	$18	7.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?	No	$10	2.2¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?	Yes	$312	86.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$21	10.9¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Yes	$421	11.9¢	Won
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?	Yes	$41	12.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	Yes	$35	6.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?	Yes	$293	12.0¢	Lost
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Over	$10	43.0¢	Won

Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 14.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$7 @ 58.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$131 @ 29.0¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$45 @ 45.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 2.2¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$5.7k @ 73.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.1¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$164 @ 10.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$100 @ 16.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 15.7¢
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$130 @ 65.0¢
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$83 @ 76.0¢
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 30.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?Lost
Yes$31 @ 23.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.0¢
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$20 @ 3.4¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$56 @ 2.8¢
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$89 @ 88.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Won
Yes$11 @ 44.0¢
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.8¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 10, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$33 @ 1.1¢
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?Won
Yes$1 @ 4.2¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.4¢
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$21 @ 50.0¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.4¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.0¢
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?Won
No$398 @ 66.2¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Lost
No$5 @ 36.0¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 46.6¢
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$13 @ 51.0¢
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 16.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Lost
No$120 @ 38.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.6¢
Will France win on 2026-07-04?Won
Yes$131 @ 84.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$37 @ 1.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Won
No$932 @ 74.6¢
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Won
Yes$18 @ 7.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?Lost
No$10 @ 2.2¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Won
Yes$312 @ 86.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$21 @ 10.9¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Won
Yes$421 @ 11.9¢
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?Won
Yes$41 @ 12.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 6.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$293 @ 12.0¢
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5Won
Over$10 @ 43.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	Yes	$130	52.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	Other	Yes	$110	22.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Politics	No	$97	3.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	Other	Yes	$39	11.3¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$29	28.9¢
US announces military base in Israel in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	3.0¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
Yes$130 @ 52.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?Other
Yes$110 @ 22.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Politics
No$97 @ 3.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?Other
Yes$39 @ 11.3¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$29 @ 28.9¢
US announces military base in Israel in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢