0x9578…f066

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9578af80708f271f705e27867dcf6ec653acf066
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.6pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

61% @ 54.3¢

Brier

0.168

Resolved

1981

Avg size

$38

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (216/362)	+10%	362
Politics	65% (40/62)	+20%	62
Culture	72% (36/50)	+29%	50
Tech	72% (26/36)	+19%	36
Geopolitics	80% (8/10)	+72%	10
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+66%	3
Sports	100% (1/1)	+17%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+64%	1

Other362 bets
Hit rate
60% (216/362)
ROI
+10%
Politics62 bets
Hit rate
65% (40/62)
ROI
+20%
Culture50 bets
Hit rate
72% (36/50)
ROI
+29%
Tech36 bets
Hit rate
72% (26/36)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
80% (8/10)
ROI
+72%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+66%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+17%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+64%

Track record

63% hit · 331/525

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "Patient Zero" hit 40m first week streams?	Yes	$1.3k	40.0¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?	No	$865	69.0¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams?	No	$97	50.6¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 35m first week streams?	Yes	$49	61.0¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 70m first week streams?	No	$2.0k	88.5¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 90m first week streams?	No	$70	98.6¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 43m first week streams?	Yes	$51	80.8¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 80m first week streams?	No	$803	96.5¢	Won
Will "Cleveland! - Taylor Swift" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	$205	78.8¢	Won
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?	No	$732	69.0¢	Won
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	Yes	$370	74.7¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song this week?	No	$2	5.8¢	Lost
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	$3	80.9¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #2 song this week?	Yes	$65	40.1¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver between 525000 and 550000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	$12	83.0¢	Won
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 225k and 250k?	No	$36	89.9¢	Won
Will 'Prizefighter' - Mumford and Sons debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?	Yes	$4	25.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?	Yes	$145	75.8¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$11	37.0¢	Lost
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30?	No	$13	13.0¢	Lost
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?	Yes	$6	24.1¢	Won
Will Beyonce have a #1 hit in June?	No	$31	83.3¢	Won
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	Yes	$40	89.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$36	22.0¢	Lost
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	No	$40	85.2¢	Won
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$35	78.1¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	No	$107	55.3¢	Won
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	Yes	$302	72.2¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$41	28.1¢	Lost
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	$17	84.0¢	Won
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?	Yes	$7	27.8¢	Won
Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be between 1.3m and 1.5m?	No	$6	88.9¢	Won
Will Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?	Yes	$65	88.1¢	Won
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?	No	$30	31.0¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$43	61.1¢	Won
Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in the US in June?	No	$48	80.2¢	Won
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 200k and 225k?	Yes	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will António José Seguro win the first round?	No	$20	65.5¢	Lost
Will António José Seguro win the first round?	Yes	$25	48.5¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$8	15.1¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?	Yes	$342	86.0¢	Won
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?	Yes	$812	59.7¢	Lost
Will Nettspend release an album in 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	83.6¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	No	$168	83.5¢	Won
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?	Yes	$92	85.8¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$107	35.7¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	20.2¢	Lost
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	$523	82.2¢	Won
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	23.5¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan win Hennepin County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?	Yes	$220	66.8¢	Won

Will "Patient Zero" hit 40m first week streams?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 40.0¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?Won
No$865 @ 69.0¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams?Won
No$97 @ 50.6¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 35m first week streams?Won
Yes$49 @ 61.0¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 70m first week streams?Won
No$2.0k @ 88.5¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 90m first week streams?Won
No$70 @ 98.6¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 43m first week streams?Won
Yes$51 @ 80.8¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 80m first week streams?Won
No$803 @ 96.5¢
Will "Cleveland! - Taylor Swift" be the #2 US song this week?Won
Yes$205 @ 78.8¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?Won
No$732 @ 69.0¢
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?Won
Yes$370 @ 74.7¢
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song this week?Lost
No$2 @ 5.8¢
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song this week?Won
Yes$3 @ 80.9¢
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #2 song this week?Lost
Yes$65 @ 40.1¢
Will Tesla deliver between 525000 and 550000 vehicles in Q3 2026Won
No$12 @ 83.0¢
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 225k and 250k?Won
No$36 @ 89.9¢
Will 'Prizefighter' - Mumford and Sons debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?Lost
Yes$4 @ 25.3¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?Won
Yes$145 @ 75.8¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$11 @ 37.0¢
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30?Lost
No$13 @ 13.0¢
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?Won
Yes$6 @ 24.1¢
Will Beyonce have a #1 hit in June?Won
No$31 @ 83.3¢
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?Won
Yes$40 @ 89.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$36 @ 22.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?Won
No$40 @ 85.2¢
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
No$35 @ 78.1¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Won
No$107 @ 55.3¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Won
Yes$302 @ 72.2¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$41 @ 28.1¢
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week?Won
Yes$17 @ 84.0¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?Won
Yes$7 @ 27.8¢
Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be between 1.3m and 1.5m?Won
No$6 @ 88.9¢
Will Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Won
Yes$65 @ 88.1¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?Won
No$30 @ 31.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$43 @ 61.1¢
Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in the US in June?Won
No$48 @ 80.2¢
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 200k and 225k?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Will António José Seguro win the first round?Lost
No$20 @ 65.5¢
Will António José Seguro win the first round?Won
Yes$25 @ 48.5¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.1¢
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Won
Yes$342 @ 86.0¢
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?Lost
Yes$812 @ 59.7¢
Will Nettspend release an album in 2026?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 83.6¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Won
No$168 @ 83.5¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Won
Yes$92 @ 85.8¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$107 @ 35.7¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 20.2¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Won
No$523 @ 82.2¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 23.5¢
Will Peggy Flanagan win Hennepin County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?Won
Yes$220 @ 66.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$9.8k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$9.8k	50.0¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$1.5k	80.5¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.4k	60.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Tech	No	$1.2k	81.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$991	68.3¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 700k?	Culture	No	$970	97.0¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?	Tech	No	$665	82.4¢
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$636	81.2¢
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Tech	Yes	$472	26.1¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 150k?	Culture	Yes	$461	92.3¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?	Politics	No	$457	83.4¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 154k?	Culture	Yes	$415	85.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$392	44.3¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$381	84.4¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 500k?	Culture	No	$348	87.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$338	92.4¢
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$310	57.6¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova?	Tech	No	$302	81.7¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?	Politics	No	$284	80.9¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Tech	Yes	$284	35.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$282	82.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$280	87.9¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$270	70.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$269	81.9¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$248	68.3¢
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T?	Tech	Yes	$243	79.2¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	Politics	No	$228	71.3¢
Will John Ternus attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?	Politics	No	$226	67.4¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flame?	Tech	No	$224	77.7¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$9.8k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$9.8k @ 50.0¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto
Yes$1.5k @ 80.5¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1.4k @ 60.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Tech
No$1.2k @ 81.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$991 @ 68.3¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 700k?Culture
No$970 @ 97.0¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?Tech
No$665 @ 82.4¢
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$636 @ 81.2¢
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Tech
Yes$472 @ 26.1¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 150k?Culture
Yes$461 @ 92.3¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?Politics
No$457 @ 83.4¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 154k?Culture
Yes$415 @ 85.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Business
Yes$392 @ 44.3¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Tech
Yes$381 @ 84.4¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 500k?Culture
No$348 @ 87.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Tech
Yes$338 @ 92.4¢
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$310 @ 57.6¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova?Tech
No$302 @ 81.7¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?Politics
No$284 @ 80.9¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Tech
Yes$284 @ 35.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$282 @ 82.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Tech
Yes$280 @ 87.9¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$270 @ 70.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$269 @ 81.9¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31?Culture
Yes$248 @ 68.3¢
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T?Tech
Yes$243 @ 79.2¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?Politics
No$228 @ 71.3¢
Will John Ternus attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Politics
No$226 @ 67.4¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flame?Tech
No$224 @ 77.7¢