0x94cf…d339

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x94cf12f33cc258208d641836c5d4741c0ac7d339
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.8pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

52% @ 42.6¢

Brier

0.204

Resolved

1935

Avg size

$115

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (73/145)	+4%	145
Politics	48% (32/66)	+32%	66
Sports	39% (7/18)	-6%	18
Geopolitics	17% (1/6)	-92%	6
Crypto	75% (3/4)	+109%	4
Tech	50% (1/2)	+6%	2

Other145 bets
Hit rate
50% (73/145)
ROI
+4%
Politics66 bets
Hit rate
48% (32/66)
ROI
+32%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
-6%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-92%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+109%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+6%

Track record

49% hit · 117/241

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$829	27.2¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$307	15.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$5	6.0¢	Lost
Valorant: Team Vitality vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	LOUD	$18	53.0¢	Won
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	No	$853	83.0¢	Won
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$178	18.6¢	Lost
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	No	$360	85.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	$250	79.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$193	58.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$974	26.5¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$101	15.0¢	Lost
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$135	4.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$83	14.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$469	23.6¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$375	73.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$67	16.0¢	Lost
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?	Yes	$7	7.5¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	$455	57.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$279	48.1¢	Won
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?	No	$14	41.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	$4	6.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	$14	83.0¢	Lost
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$165	68.0¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$619	18.7¢	Lost
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	Yes	$275	81.1¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	Yes	$654	40.0¢	Lost
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$920	83.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$99	81.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$17	1.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$144	17.2¢	Won
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	No	$17	30.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	$44	4.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$4.9k	73.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$4.5k	42.3¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	No	$11	15.0¢	Lost
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Yes	$36	83.0¢	Won
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$891	41.3¢	Lost
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	$1.2k	61.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$6.2k	45.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$512	7.1¢	Lost
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?	Yes	$827	62.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$545	31.7¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$396	35.0¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	Yes	$711	65.5¢	Won
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$4.2k	24.5¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$16.9k	68.5¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$591	2.3¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$3	22.6¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$217	13.0¢	Lost
Government shutdown on Saturday?	Yes	$271	14.0¢	Lost

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$829 @ 27.2¢
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Lost
No$307 @ 15.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.0¢
Valorant: Team Vitality vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions PlayoffsWon
LOUD$18 @ 53.0¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Won
No$853 @ 83.0¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$178 @ 18.6¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Won
No$360 @ 85.0¢
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Won
Yes$250 @ 79.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$193 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$974 @ 26.5¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Lost
No$101 @ 15.0¢
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$135 @ 4.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$83 @ 14.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$469 @ 23.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$375 @ 73.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$67 @ 16.0¢
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.5¢
Spurs vs. ThunderLost
Thunder$455 @ 57.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$279 @ 48.1¢
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?Won
No$14 @ 41.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?Won
No$4 @ 6.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?Lost
Yes$14 @ 83.0¢
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?Won
Yes$165 @ 68.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$619 @ 18.7¢
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Won
Yes$275 @ 81.1¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$654 @ 40.0¢
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
No$920 @ 83.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$99 @ 81.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$144 @ 17.2¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Won
No$17 @ 30.0¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Lost
Yes$44 @ 4.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$4.9k @ 73.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$4.5k @ 42.3¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?Lost
No$11 @ 15.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?Won
Yes$36 @ 83.0¢
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Lost
No$891 @ 41.3¢
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 61.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$6.2k @ 45.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$512 @ 7.1¢
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?Won
Yes$827 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$545 @ 31.7¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$396 @ 35.0¢
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?Won
Yes$711 @ 65.5¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$4.2k @ 24.5¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$16.9k @ 68.5¢
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$591 @ 2.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$3 @ 22.6¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$217 @ 13.0¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Lost
Yes$271 @ 14.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$11.6k	80.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$8.7k	67.4¢
49ers vs. Raiders	—	Raiders	$2.7k	58.5¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$2.2k	67.1¢
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	32.0¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	43.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	29.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	84.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$900	90.2¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	—	No	$820	37.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$748	34.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Sports	Yes	$722	65.0¢
Spurs vs. Thunder	Sports	Thunder	$449	57.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Sports	Yes	$433	39.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$424	24.9¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$422	27.8¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	Politics	Yes	$420	10.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$327	34.0¢
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	—	No	$270	26.2¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Politics	Yes	$217	11.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Politics	No	$211	19.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$196	88.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$122	70.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Politics	Yes	$78	47.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Politics	Yes	$49	14.0¢
Trump kiss by May 31?	—	No	$47	58.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 11?	Politics	Yes	$47	16.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$29	14.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$19	24.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Politics	Yes	$18	16.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$11.6k @ 80.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$8.7k @ 67.4¢
49ers vs. Raiders—
Raiders$2.7k @ 58.5¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$2.2k @ 67.1¢
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 32.0¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 43.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 29.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 84.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$900 @ 90.2¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?—
No$820 @ 37.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$748 @ 34.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?Sports
Yes$722 @ 65.0¢
Spurs vs. ThunderSports
Thunder$449 @ 57.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?Sports
Yes$433 @ 39.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$424 @ 24.9¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$422 @ 27.8¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Politics
Yes$420 @ 10.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$327 @ 34.0¢
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?—
No$270 @ 26.2¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Politics
Yes$217 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Politics
No$211 @ 19.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$196 @ 88.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$122 @ 70.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Politics
Yes$78 @ 47.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Politics
Yes$49 @ 14.0¢
Trump kiss by May 31?—
No$47 @ 58.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 11?Politics
Yes$47 @ 16.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$29 @ 14.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$19 @ 24.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?Politics
Yes$18 @ 16.0¢