← Smart money
0x94cf…d339
ProfitableEdge
+15.8pp
ROI
+36%
Win rate
60% @ 43.9¢
Brier
0.232
Resolved
450
Avg size
$108
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 49% (20/41) | +30% | 41 |
| Politics | 36% (8/22) | +19% | 22 |
| Crypto | 75% (3/4) | +109% | 4 |
| Tech | 50% (1/2) | +6% | 2 |
| Sports | 50% (1/2) | +1% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other41 bets
- Hit rate
- 49% (20/41)
- ROI
- +30%
- Politics22 bets
- Hit rate
- 36% (8/22)
- ROI
- +19%
- Crypto4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- +109%
- Tech2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +6%
- Sports2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +1%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
46% hit · 33/72- Yes$5 @ 6.0¢
- No$853 @ 83.0¢
- Yes$178 @ 18.6¢
- No$193 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$974 @ 26.5¢
- Yes$83 @ 14.6¢
- Yes$469 @ 23.6¢
- No$375 @ 73.9¢
- Yes$67 @ 16.0¢
- No$99 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$17 @ 1.2¢
- No$4.9k @ 73.3¢
- Yes$4.5k @ 42.3¢
- No$6.2k @ 45.0¢
- Yes$512 @ 7.1¢
- No$396 @ 35.0¢
- No$3 @ 22.6¢
- Yes$217 @ 13.0¢
- No$45 @ 67.9¢
- No$1.6k @ 35.9¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 20.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 35.9¢
- Yes$8 @ 4.0¢
- No$1.8k @ 15.6¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 71.1¢
- Yes$485 @ 56.8¢
- No$83 @ 82.1¢
- No$6 @ 89.8¢
- No$13 @ 22.0¢
- Yes$36 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$66 @ 5.9¢
- Yes$25 @ 21.0¢
- No$347 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$34 @ 2.4¢
- Yes$8 @ 2.2¢
- Yes$202 @ 1.1¢
- Yes$112 @ 21.0¢
- No$3.4k @ 86.4¢
- Yes$298 @ 12.6¢
- No$316 @ 55.8¢
- Yes$877 @ 33.8¢
- No$155 @ 88.6¢
- No$340 @ 41.0¢
- Yes$267 @ 19.5¢
- No$1.3k @ 43.7¢
- Yes$42 @ 43.6¢
- Yes$726 @ 40.4¢
- No$506 @ 41.0¢
- Yes$68 @ 27.2¢
- No$3.7k @ 73.2¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $9.5k | 79.3¢ |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | No | $1.6k | 63.9¢ |
| LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | — | Yes | $567 | 51.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $393 | 25.0¢ |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | — | No | $298 | 59.0¢ |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $273 | 99.0¢ |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $271 | 97.4¢ |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | — | No | $196 | 88.0¢ |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | — | Yes | $162 | 40.0¢ |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | — | Yes | $29 | 41.0¢ |
- No$9.5k @ 79.3¢
- No$1.6k @ 63.9¢
- Yes$567 @ 51.0¢
- Yes$393 @ 25.0¢
- No$298 @ 59.0¢
- No$273 @ 99.0¢
- No$271 @ 97.4¢
- No$196 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$162 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$29 @ 41.0¢