0x94c5…e6ee

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x94c56fb3f8e7b8a934ddbfd1a4fa1a4282b9e6ee
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.2pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

32% @ 23.3¢

Brier

0.148

Resolved

282

Avg size

$38

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	33% (11/33)	+28%	33
Other	27% (3/11)	-6%	11
Geopolitics	33% (2/6)	-18%	6
Sports	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics33 bets
Hit rate
33% (11/33)
ROI
+28%
Other11 bets
Hit rate
27% (3/11)
ROI
-6%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-18%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

29% hit · 16/55

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	$134	3.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on July 8?	No	$17	84.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.0k	84.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$53	2.5¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$152	49.9¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$85	8.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$172	68.3¢	Won
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?	No	$10	0.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$1.3k	80.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$22	21.6¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	2.7¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on July 1?	Yes	$21	11.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$268	67.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	$12	2.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$8	1.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$21	2.8¢	Lost
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	No	$171	85.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$33	33.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$180	5.4¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$290	29.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$193	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$171	25.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	Yes	$374	16.3¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	$37	3.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$294	49.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$360	12.0¢	Lost
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	No	$134	8.5¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$31	31.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$102	7.5¢	Lost
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	United States	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$570	28.5¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?	No	$13	21.5¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?	Yes	$10	0.9¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$39	39.0¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$40	38.9¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$512	42.7¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$510	25.5¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$92	10.2¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	$17	1.7¢	Lost
US x China tariff agreement by October 31?	No	$30	5.8¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	$13	25.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	$228	57.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$300	50.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?	Yes	$699	69.0¢	Won
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	$41	20.5¢	Lost

Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
No$134 @ 3.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on July 8?Won
No$17 @ 84.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 84.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$53 @ 2.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$152 @ 49.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$85 @ 8.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$172 @ 68.3¢
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?Lost
No$10 @ 0.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 80.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$22 @ 21.6¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.7¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on July 1?Lost
Yes$21 @ 11.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$268 @ 67.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Lost
No$12 @ 2.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$8 @ 1.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$21 @ 2.8¢
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Won
No$171 @ 85.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$33 @ 33.0¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$180 @ 5.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$290 @ 29.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$193 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$171 @ 25.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Lost
No$5 @ 1.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Lost
Yes$374 @ 16.3¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Lost
No$37 @ 3.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$294 @ 49.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$360 @ 12.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?Lost
No$134 @ 8.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$31 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$102 @ 7.5¢
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceLost
United States$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$570 @ 28.5¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?Lost
No$13 @ 21.5¢
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.9¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$39 @ 39.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$40 @ 38.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$512 @ 42.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$510 @ 25.5¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$3 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$92 @ 10.2¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Lost
No$17 @ 1.7¢
US x China tariff agreement by October 31?Lost
No$30 @ 5.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 25.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Lost
No$228 @ 57.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
Yes$300 @ 50.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?Won
Yes$699 @ 69.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Lost
No$41 @ 20.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$290	29.0¢

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$290 @ 29.0¢