0x94b0…9d34

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x94b08a4aa9c9ccfb9c8fecf6891e1ffff0809d34
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.4pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

64% @ 58.2¢

Brier

0.083

Resolved

357

Avg size

$84

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	63% (27/43)	+3%	43
Politics	73% (8/11)	+26%	11
Geopolitics	67% (4/6)	+19%	6
Economy	33% (1/3)	+13%	3
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other43 bets
Hit rate
63% (27/43)
ROI
+3%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
73% (8/11)
ROI
+26%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+19%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+13%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

63% hit · 40/64

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$159	31.8¢	Lost
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?	No	$120	71.2¢	Lost
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?	Yes	$154	88.2¢	Won
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 19, 2026?	No	$221	83.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$75	75.0¢	Won
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	$139	73.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$474	79.0¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in May?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$50	48.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$2.4k	83.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$32	16.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$831	81.5¢	Won
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	No	$253	84.3¢	Lost
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$55	2.9¢	Lost
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,100 (LOW) by April 30?	Yes	$2	31.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$64	64.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$910	52.8¢	Lost
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?	No	$96	13.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$444	74.0¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–$2.75 in May?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$375	70.9¢	Won
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	No	$0	33.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$1.0k	72.4¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	$1.2k	83.9¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April?	No	$132	44.0¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April?	Yes	$284	67.9¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$500	78.8¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?	No	$76	87.8¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	$660	82.5¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$539	71.2¢	Won
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?	No	$342	87.1¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No	$75	66.2¢	Won
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$37	1.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$376	76.1¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	$3.2k	79.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	No	$125	83.0¢	Won
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$10	12.1¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$907	61.5¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$206	39.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	No	$86	86.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	$6.9k	83.8¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$44	22.0¢	Lost
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$57	2.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$537	41.3¢	Won
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 19, 2026?	No	$271	87.6¢	Won
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$573	44.1¢	Lost
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	$105	52.5¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?	No	$261	87.0¢	Won

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$159 @ 31.8¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?Lost
No$120 @ 71.2¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?Won
Yes$154 @ 88.2¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 19, 2026?Won
No$221 @ 83.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$75 @ 75.0¢
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?Won
Yes$139 @ 73.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$474 @ 79.0¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in May?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 48.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$2.4k @ 83.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$32 @ 16.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$831 @ 81.5¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
No$253 @ 84.3¢
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$55 @ 2.9¢
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,100 (LOW) by April 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$64 @ 64.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$910 @ 52.8¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?Lost
No$96 @ 13.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$444 @ 74.0¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–$2.75 in May?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$375 @ 70.9¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Lost
No$0 @ 33.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 72.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
No$1.2k @ 83.9¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April?Lost
No$132 @ 44.0¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April?Won
Yes$284 @ 67.9¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$500 @ 78.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?Won
No$76 @ 87.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Won
No$660 @ 82.5¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$539 @ 71.2¢
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?Won
No$342 @ 87.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?Won
No$75 @ 66.2¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$37 @ 1.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$376 @ 76.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Won
No$3.2k @ 79.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?Won
No$125 @ 83.0¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Lost
Yes$10 @ 12.1¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
Yes$907 @ 61.5¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$206 @ 39.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Won
No$86 @ 86.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Won
No$6.9k @ 83.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$44 @ 22.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 2.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$537 @ 41.3¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 19, 2026?Won
No$271 @ 87.6¢
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Lost
Yes$573 @ 44.1¢
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
No$105 @ 52.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?Won
No$261 @ 87.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$5.1k	84.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	56.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.3k	93.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.2k	87.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$400	80.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	83.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1	84.0¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$5.1k @ 84.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 56.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$1.3k @ 93.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$1.2k @ 87.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$400 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 83.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 84.0¢