0x94b0…9d34

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x94b08a4aa9c9ccfb9c8fecf6891e1ffff0809d34
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.9pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

39% @ 31.3¢

Brier

0.168

Resolved

2135

Avg size

$41

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (135/256)	+20%	256
Politics	77% (20/26)	+9%	26
Geopolitics	63% (5/8)	+11%	8
Economy	40% (2/5)	+91%	5
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other256 bets
Hit rate
53% (135/256)
ROI
+20%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
77% (20/26)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+11%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+91%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

55% hit · 162/297

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	$300	86.0¢	Won
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1600 and $4.1699 on November 1?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?	No	$1.0k	99.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	87.1¢	Lost
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	$507	98.6¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	$1.1k	94.0¢	Won
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	$50	87.0¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 30?	Yes	$183	92.0¢	Won
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	$271	60.5¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	$23	35.3¢	Lost
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	$72	55.0¢	Won
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	$100	93.0¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	$1.9k	98.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$200	69.4¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?	Yes	$85	85.0¢	Won
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?	No	$315	85.2¢	Won
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?	No	$200	7.3¢	Lost
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?	No	$23	80.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?	No	$18	35.0¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?	Yes	$1.1k	41.7¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$300	43.0¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in January?	Yes	$106	8.4¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.70–2.80 in February?	No	$247	67.2¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.70–2.80 in February?	Yes	$3	1.7¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?	No	$124	81.0¢	Won
Will SOFR hit 3.60% (Low) between March 1 and March 31?	Yes	$31	2.1¢	Lost
Super Bowl LIX Winner	Chiefs	$50	54.0¢	Lost
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	No	$100	73.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$20	36.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$159	31.8¢	Lost
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?	No	$160	49.6¢	Lost
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?	Yes	$154	88.2¢	Won
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?	No	$17	34.0¢	Lost
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?	No	$256	39.1¢	Won
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Russia before July?	No	$403	68.6¢	Won
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$1.9k	74.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	Yes	$84	39.0¢	Won
Will SOFR hit 3.74% (High) between March 1 and March 31?	Yes	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?	Yes	$50	64.0¢	Lost
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?	No	$212	23.0¢	Lost
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?	Yes	$280	33.1¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in October?	Yes	$241	70.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in March?	Yes	$947	65.9¢	Won
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$268	55.5¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$100	89.5¢	Won
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 19, 2026?	No	$221	83.4¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in October?	No	$130	65.0¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in October?	Yes	$337	8.1¢	Lost

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Won
No$300 @ 86.0¢
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1600 and $4.1699 on November 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 99.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 87.1¢
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Won
No$507 @ 98.6¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 94.0¢
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?Won
Yes$50 @ 87.0¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 30?Won
Yes$183 @ 92.0¢
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Won
Yes$271 @ 60.5¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Lost
No$23 @ 35.3¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Won
Yes$72 @ 55.0¢
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?Won
No$100 @ 93.0¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?Won
No$1.9k @ 98.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$200 @ 69.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Won
Yes$85 @ 85.0¢
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?Won
No$315 @ 85.2¢
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?Lost
No$200 @ 7.3¢
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?Won
No$23 @ 80.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?Won
No$18 @ 35.0¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 41.7¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$300 @ 43.0¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in January?Lost
Yes$106 @ 8.4¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.70–2.80 in February?Won
No$247 @ 67.2¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.70–2.80 in February?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.7¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?Won
No$124 @ 81.0¢
Will SOFR hit 3.60% (Low) between March 1 and March 31?Lost
Yes$31 @ 2.1¢
Super Bowl LIX WinnerLost
Chiefs$50 @ 54.0¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
No$100 @ 73.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$20 @ 36.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$159 @ 31.8¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?Lost
No$160 @ 49.6¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?Won
Yes$154 @ 88.2¢
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?Lost
No$17 @ 34.0¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?Won
No$256 @ 39.1¢
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump visit Russia before July?Won
No$403 @ 68.6¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$1.9k @ 74.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Won
Yes$84 @ 39.0¢
Will SOFR hit 3.74% (High) between March 1 and March 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Lost
Yes$50 @ 64.0¢
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?Lost
No$212 @ 23.0¢
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?Won
Yes$280 @ 33.1¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in October?Won
Yes$241 @ 70.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in March?Won
Yes$947 @ 65.9¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$268 @ 55.5¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$100 @ 89.5¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 19, 2026?Won
No$221 @ 83.4¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in October?Won
No$130 @ 65.0¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in October?Lost
Yes$337 @ 8.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.8k	83.3¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.6k	96.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	56.1¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$994	90.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$978	93.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	Politics	No	$804	89.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$653	93.3¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Politics	No	$391	96.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$389	97.3¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.90 and $2.00 in October?	Economy	No	$279	94.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$192	64.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$184	46.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Politics	No	$184	92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$176	88.0¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?	Politics	No	$155	97.6¢
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$130	96.3¢
Panama Canal effectively closed by November 30?	Politics	No	$97	96.9¢
Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$2.70 in October?	Economy	No	$93	97.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?	Politics	No	$58	96.6¢
Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.90 in October?	Economy	No	$36	97.1¢
Will the US national average gas price be $4.1900+ on November 2?	Economy	No	$20	99.0¢
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$16	82.0¢
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1500 and $4.1599 on November 2?	Economy	Yes	$14	10.0¢
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1800 and $4.1899 on November 2?	Economy	No	$9	98.0¢
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1600 and $4.1699 on November 2?	Economy	Yes	$3	20.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1	84.0¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$2.8k @ 83.3¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.6k @ 96.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 56.1¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$994 @ 90.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$978 @ 93.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?Politics
No$804 @ 89.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$653 @ 93.3¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
No$391 @ 96.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$389 @ 97.3¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.90 and $2.00 in October?Economy
No$279 @ 94.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$192 @ 64.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$184 @ 46.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Politics
No$184 @ 92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
No$155 @ 97.6¢
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$130 @ 96.3¢
Panama Canal effectively closed by November 30?Politics
No$97 @ 96.9¢
Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$2.70 in October?Economy
No$93 @ 97.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
No$58 @ 96.6¢
Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.90 in October?Economy
No$36 @ 97.1¢
Will the US national average gas price be $4.1900+ on November 2?Economy
No$20 @ 99.0¢
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?Geopolitics
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1500 and $4.1599 on November 2?Economy
Yes$14 @ 10.0¢
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1800 and $4.1899 on November 2?Economy
No$9 @ 98.0¢
Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1600 and $4.1699 on November 2?Economy
Yes$3 @ 20.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 84.0¢