0x93b3…893e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x93b356349d65877d0b2570f174b4688682f6893e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-5.1pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

14% @ 19.2¢

Brier

0.111

Resolved

652

Avg size

$18

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	15% (17/116)	+114%	116
Politics	21% (11/52)	-58%	52
Geopolitics	0% (0/28)	-100%	28
Sports	50% (1/2)	+204%	2
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other116 bets
Hit rate
15% (17/116)
ROI
+114%
Politics52 bets
Hit rate
21% (11/52)
ROI
-58%
Geopolitics28 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/28)
ROI
-100%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+204%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

15% hit · 29/199

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$9	13.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$10	42.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?	No	$1	68.0¢	Won
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$10	48.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$73	5.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	$6	17.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$17	41.4¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$70	11.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$9	21.9¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$10	9.4¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$21	35.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$32	11.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$4	14.6¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$23	10.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$5	17.7¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	31.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$998	64.4¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$57	5.7¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$3	33.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$16	10.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Won
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$11	22.0¢	Lost
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$15	23.4¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$83	4.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$24	19.8¢	Lost
Will Solana dip to $140 in May?	No	$5	79.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?	Yes	$4	21.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$56	18.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$32	17.5¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$44	14.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	$15	28.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$9	45.0¢	Won
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?	Yes	$1	3.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	$7	3.7¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$6	11.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	$6	20.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	$4	14.2¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	$19	31.5¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	Yes	$14	18.0¢	Lost
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	No	$2	14.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	$25	18.0¢	Lost

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$9 @ 13.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$10 @ 42.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?Won
No$1 @ 68.0¢
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$10 @ 48.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$73 @ 5.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.9¢
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Morocco?Lost
Yes$6 @ 17.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$17 @ 41.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$70 @ 11.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 21.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.4¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$21 @ 35.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 11.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 14.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$23 @ 10.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.7¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$998 @ 64.4¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$57 @ 5.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$3 @ 33.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$16 @ 10.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 22.0¢
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
Yes$15 @ 23.4¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$83 @ 4.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$24 @ 19.8¢
Will Solana dip to $140 in May?Won
No$5 @ 79.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?Lost
Yes$4 @ 21.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$56 @ 18.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$32 @ 17.5¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$44 @ 14.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Lost
Yes$15 @ 28.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.7¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July?Won
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Lost
Yes$6 @ 20.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Lost
Yes$4 @ 14.2¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Lost
No$19 @ 31.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?Lost
Yes$14 @ 18.0¢
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?Lost
No$2 @ 14.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Lost
No$25 @ 18.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$160	15.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$93	19.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$84	21.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$75	10.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$62	10.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$39	16.3¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$19	8.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$10	25.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$8	16.9¢
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	Culture	Yes	$7	7.0¢
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?	Tech	Yes	$5	5.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	43.0¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$160 @ 15.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$93 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$84 @ 21.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$75 @ 10.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$62 @ 10.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$39 @ 16.3¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$19 @ 8.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 16.9¢
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?Culture
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?Tech
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 43.0¢