0x9352…2227

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x93521335308a270795daa9f073b5406938b12227
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.2pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

64% @ 52.4¢

Brier

0.167

Resolved

1153

Avg size

$188

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (61/110)	+8%	110
Politics	59% (39/66)	+16%	66
Tech	35% (7/20)	-53%	20
Geopolitics	60% (6/10)	+10%	10
Sports	33% (2/6)	+14%	6
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+67%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+123%	1

Other110 bets
Hit rate
55% (61/110)
ROI
+8%
Politics66 bets
Hit rate
59% (39/66)
ROI
+16%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
35% (7/20)
ROI
-53%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
+10%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+14%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+67%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+123%

Track record

54% hit · 117/215

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$1.5k	45.7¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$52	2.6¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$2.3k	66.7¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$703	20.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$450	8.7¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$4.6k	85.5¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$55	9.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$2.2k	48.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$459	59.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$572	33.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$344	20.4¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$494	16.6¢	Lost
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$165	16.0¢	Lost
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$843	85.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$760	30.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$1.4k	76.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$556	19.5¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$1.7k	81.6¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$315	21.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$123	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$2.0k	32.6¢	Won
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	Yes	$5	3.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$4.7k	43.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	No	$363	15.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$1.6k	58.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$2.0k	25.5¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$10.1k	57.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	19.4¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$370	18.5¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$1.9k	77.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$844	54.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$7.8k	86.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$1.9k	11.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$1.4k	22.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$529	57.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ethanol" during Michigan remarks?	No	$227	84.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$2.8k	84.3¢	Won
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	$748	79.9¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$2.0k	9.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	No	$2.6k	78.1¢	Won
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	$581	72.6¢	Won
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	$348	32.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$1.3k	89.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	Yes	$316	29.4¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$636	73.8¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$4.2k	66.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.5k	85.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	No	$260	9.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs	Team Liquid	$4.0k	28.4¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	No	$1.9k	37.9¢	Won

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 45.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$52 @ 2.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 66.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$703 @ 20.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$450 @ 8.7¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$4.6k @ 85.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
No$55 @ 9.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 48.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$459 @ 59.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$572 @ 33.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$344 @ 20.4¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$494 @ 16.6¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
No$165 @ 16.0¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$843 @ 85.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$760 @ 30.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 76.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$556 @ 19.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$1.7k @ 81.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$315 @ 21.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$123 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 32.6¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.7k @ 43.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?Lost
No$363 @ 15.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$1.6k @ 58.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 25.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$10.1k @ 57.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 19.4¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$370 @ 18.5¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$1.9k @ 77.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$844 @ 54.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$7.8k @ 86.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 11.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$1.4k @ 22.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$529 @ 57.6¢
Will Trump say "Ethanol" during Michigan remarks?Won
No$227 @ 84.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 84.3¢
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$748 @ 79.9¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 9.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Won
No$2.6k @ 78.1¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Won
No$581 @ 72.6¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Lost
Yes$348 @ 32.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 89.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Lost
Yes$316 @ 29.4¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$636 @ 73.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$4.2k @ 66.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 85.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Lost
No$260 @ 9.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLost
Team Liquid$4.0k @ 28.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Won
No$1.9k @ 37.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$5.3k	63.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3.9k	72.8¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	No	$3.8k	87.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$3.6k	60.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$3.5k	86.2¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	—	No	$3.0k	92.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$2.6k	93.2¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	No	$2.5k	81.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$2.4k	71.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$2.2k	89.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Business	No	$2.1k	98.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$2.0k	71.7¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$1.9k	77.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.6k	79.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.5k	60.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$1.5k	81.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.4k	32.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	—	Yes	$1.3k	64.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	21.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.1k	25.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	—	No	$1.1k	87.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$962	63.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$946	73.0¢
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$781	83.0¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	No	$636	80.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$628	17.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	—	No	$625	92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	—	Yes	$595	5.9¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$588	90.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$580	29.0¢

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$5.3k @ 63.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
No$3.9k @ 72.8¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
No$3.8k @ 87.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?—
No$3.6k @ 60.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$3.5k @ 86.2¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?—
No$3.0k @ 92.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$2.6k @ 93.2¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
No$2.5k @ 81.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$2.4k @ 71.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$2.2k @ 89.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
No$2.1k @ 98.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$2.0k @ 71.7¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?—
No$1.9k @ 77.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$1.6k @ 79.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$1.5k @ 60.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?—
No$1.5k @ 81.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$1.4k @ 32.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?—
Yes$1.3k @ 64.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 21.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$1.1k @ 25.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?—
No$1.1k @ 87.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$962 @ 63.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?—
No$946 @ 73.0¢
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?—
No$781 @ 83.0¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
No$636 @ 80.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$628 @ 17.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?—
No$625 @ 92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?—
Yes$595 @ 5.9¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$588 @ 90.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$580 @ 29.0¢