0x9352…2227

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics276 bets

  Hit rate

  53% (145/276)

  ROI

  +14%

• Other154 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (89/154)

  ROI

  +11%

• Geopolitics58 bets

  Hit rate

  53% (31/58)

  ROI

  +12%

• Tech33 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (18/33)

  ROI

  +17%

• Sports7 bets

  Hit rate

  29% (2/7)

  ROI

  +14%

• Business3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  -23%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +29%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +67%

• Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
  No$1.4k @ 36.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Lost
  No$122 @ 57.0¢
• Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
  No$2.9k @ 72.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
  Yes$2.1k @ 35.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
  No$2.9k @ 64.5¢
• Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Lost
  No$2.6k @ 39.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Won
  No$2 @ 33.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
  No$750 @ 34.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Lost
  Yes$240 @ 72.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 64.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Won
  No$1.4k @ 77.7¢
• Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Lost
  Yes$161 @ 31.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
  Yes$123 @ 35.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
  No$146 @ 35.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Lost
  Yes$270 @ 9.0¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Won
  No$463 @ 27.3¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Lost
  Yes$286 @ 66.5¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Won
  No$797 @ 46.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Won
  No$2.1k @ 66.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 30.0¢
• Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 99.0¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 14?Won
  Yes$95 @ 75.3¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
  No$250 @ 15.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 85.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
• Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Won
  No$733 @ 69.9¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Won
  No$994 @ 70.3¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Lost
  Yes$97 @ 34.0¢
• Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Lost
  Yes$236 @ 28.8¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 2.9¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 17.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$3.3k @ 74.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$395 @ 34.0¢
• Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Won
  No$233 @ 87.0¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$962 @ 63.0¢
• Graham Platner divorce by October 31?Lost
  Yes$42 @ 7.0¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$39 @ 45.1¢
• Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
  Yes$1.7k @ 85.0¢
• Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
  Yes$250 @ 53.9¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
  No$773 @ 68.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
  Yes$95 @ 26.0¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
  Yes$833 @ 68.2¢
• Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
  Yes$2.3k @ 69.0¢
• Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
  No$2.5k @ 70.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
  No$401 @ 77.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 0.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Lost
  No$563 @ 10.5¢
• Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$5.2k @ 64.9¢
• Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Won
  No$85 @ 30.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$1.6k @ 59.9¢

Current positions

• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$4.2k @ 70.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$3.3k @ 69.4¢
• Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?Crypto
  Yes$3.0k @ 99.0¢
• Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$2.9k @ 72.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Politics
  Yes$2.9k @ 78.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 36.4¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 35.0¢
• Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.7k @ 27.0¢
• Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 77.8¢
• Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics
  Yes$1.4k @ 28.0¢
• Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Politics
  Yes$1.2k @ 12.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$901 @ 66.1¢
• Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$753 @ 56.3¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
  No$750 @ 34.0¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Politics
  Yes$703 @ 24.2¢
• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
  No$700 @ 78.0¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Politics
  Yes$513 @ 35.6¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  Yes$450 @ 15.0¢
• Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
  Yes$394 @ 11.0¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
  Yes$310 @ 36.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$288 @ 48.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$270 @ 9.0¢
• Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?Politics
  No$263 @ 91.2¢
• Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$255 @ 9.5¢
• Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$240 @ 72.0¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
  No$218 @ 90.0¢
• Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$216 @ 77.9¢
• Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Tech
  Yes$207 @ 42.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$174 @ 34.0¢
• Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?Tech
  Yes$173 @ 35.0¢