0x92d0…269e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x92d0cb81e6c891b835c8e0272e8c323095bd269e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

41% @ 36.5¢

Brier

0.174

Resolved

949

Avg size

$118

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	44% (34/78)	+38%	78
Other	35% (22/62)	-11%	62
Geopolitics	30% (7/23)	-20%	23
Sports	29% (2/7)	+160%	7
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics78 bets
Hit rate
44% (34/78)
ROI
+38%
Other62 bets
Hit rate
35% (22/62)
ROI
-11%
Geopolitics23 bets
Hit rate
30% (7/23)
ROI
-20%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
+160%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 65/171

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$283	27.6¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$985	48.3¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$405	8.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$145	39.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$282	22.6¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$35	7.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$339	65.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$146	14.6¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$33	6.6¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?	Yes	$88	8.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$413	59.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$781	26.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$101	8.0¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$56	46.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$345	69.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$72	24.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$1.0k	37.2¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$88	57.8¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$316	49.9¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$157	2.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$711	47.4¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$1.3k	11.2¢	Lost
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?	No	$1.0k	66.7¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$1.4k	12.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$142	64.5¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$1.1k	36.8¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$556	35.6¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$115	11.2¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	$97	39.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$544	43.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	$530	21.2¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$689	19.6¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$2.5k	31.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$74	37.0¢	Won
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$37	13.9¢	Lost
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?	Yes	$18	5.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	34.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$1.6k	71.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$477	11.9¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$450	28.1¢	Lost
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	Yes	$51	47.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$763	63.1¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$118	5.9¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$322	67.9¢	Won
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	No	$336	56.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$1.7k	48.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$270	27.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$196	49.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	52.3¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$553	15.8¢	Lost

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$283 @ 27.6¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$985 @ 48.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$405 @ 8.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$145 @ 39.7¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$282 @ 22.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$35 @ 7.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$339 @ 65.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$146 @ 14.6¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$33 @ 6.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?Lost
Yes$88 @ 8.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$413 @ 59.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$781 @ 26.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$101 @ 8.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$56 @ 46.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$345 @ 69.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$72 @ 24.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$1.0k @ 37.2¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 57.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$316 @ 49.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$157 @ 2.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$711 @ 47.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 11.2¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 66.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 12.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$142 @ 64.5¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 36.8¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$556 @ 35.6¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$115 @ 11.2¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Lost
Yes$97 @ 39.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$544 @ 43.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Lost
Yes$530 @ 21.2¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$689 @ 19.6¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 31.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$74 @ 37.0¢
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
No$37 @ 13.9¢
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 5.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 34.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$1.6k @ 71.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$477 @ 11.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$450 @ 28.1¢
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsLost
Yes$51 @ 47.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
No$763 @ 63.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$118 @ 5.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$322 @ 67.9¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Won
No$336 @ 56.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$1.7k @ 48.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$270 @ 27.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$196 @ 49.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 52.3¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$553 @ 15.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	—	Yes	$800	40.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	—	Yes	$761	57.9¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?	—	No	$489	69.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Politics	No	$230	46.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	—	No	$216	77.8¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?	—	No	$179	59.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$148	37.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	—	No	$134	53.6¢
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?	Politics	No	$126	70.5¢
US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?	—	Yes	$103	15.1¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?	—	Yes	$80	68.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	—	No	$36	71.0¢

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?—
Yes$800 @ 40.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?—
Yes$761 @ 57.9¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?—
No$489 @ 69.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
No$230 @ 46.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?—
No$216 @ 77.8¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?—
No$179 @ 59.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$148 @ 37.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?—
No$134 @ 53.6¢
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?Politics
No$126 @ 70.5¢
US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?—
Yes$103 @ 15.1¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?—
Yes$80 @ 68.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?—
No$36 @ 71.0¢