0x92d0…269e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x92d0cb81e6c891b835c8e0272e8c323095bd269e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

45% @ 38.1¢

Brier

0.199

Resolved

5085

Avg size

$85

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (422/1005)	+16%	1005
Politics	41% (79/192)	+18%	192
Geopolitics	34% (20/58)	+2%	58
Sports	29% (2/7)	+160%	7
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+52%	1

Other1005 bets
Hit rate
42% (422/1005)
ROI
+16%
Politics192 bets
Hit rate
41% (79/192)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics58 bets
Hit rate
34% (20/58)
ROI
+2%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
+160%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+52%

Track record

41% hit · 524/1264

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Yes	$270	27.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	$143	58.7¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	$894	60.9¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31?	Yes	$358	74.2¢	Won
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	$205	35.5¢	Won
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	$200	50.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	$23	57.0¢	Won
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	Yes	$276	48.9¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	$98	36.7¢	Lost
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	Yes	$46	37.8¢	Lost
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?	No	$555	79.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$148	37.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$344	68.8¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	$594	67.5¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	$228	54.7¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 31?	No	$56	35.6¢	Lost
Houthi military action against Mecca by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	Yes	$45	11.5¢	Lost
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	Yes	$114	22.4¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?	No	$90	73.6¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	Yes	$75	24.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	$260	26.0¢	Lost
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?	Yes	$26	2.8¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	No	$33	11.0¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$109	29.0¢	Lost
India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?	No	$38	38.0¢	Won
India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?	Yes	$104	79.5¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?	No	$25	33.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	No	$72	40.0¢	Lost
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?	No	$61	3.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$283	27.6¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$1.5k	59.2¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$985	48.3¢	Won
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?	Yes	$47	33.6¢	Won
North Korea missile test by September 15?	No	$173	55.8¢	Won
North Korea missile test by September 15?	Yes	$117	23.4¢	Lost
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?	No	$62	65.4¢	Won
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?	Yes	$53	35.0¢	Lost
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?	Yes	$5	3.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$934	26.7¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	40.1¢	Won
Israel military action against Iran in April?	Yes	$22	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?	Yes	$172	57.3¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$502	64.2¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?	Yes	$105	42.0¢	Won
Trump x Xi talk before July?	No	$125	24.3¢	Lost
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$611	23.4¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$548	13.7¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$686	71.9¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	$194	49.5¢	Lost

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Lost
Yes$270 @ 27.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Lost
No$143 @ 58.7¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Won
Yes$894 @ 60.9¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31?Won
Yes$358 @ 74.2¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Won
No$205 @ 35.5¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Lost
Yes$200 @ 50.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Won
No$23 @ 57.0¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Lost
Yes$276 @ 48.9¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Lost
Yes$98 @ 36.7¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?Lost
Yes$46 @ 37.8¢
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?Won
No$555 @ 79.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$148 @ 37.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$344 @ 68.8¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Won
Yes$594 @ 67.5¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Won
Yes$228 @ 54.7¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 31?Lost
No$56 @ 35.6¢
Houthi military action against Mecca by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?Lost
Yes$45 @ 11.5¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?Lost
Yes$114 @ 22.4¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?Won
No$90 @ 73.6¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 24.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Lost
No$260 @ 26.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?Lost
Yes$26 @ 2.8¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?Lost
No$33 @ 11.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$109 @ 29.0¢
India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?Won
No$38 @ 38.0¢
India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?Lost
Yes$104 @ 79.5¢
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?Lost
No$25 @ 33.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$72 @ 40.0¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?Lost
No$61 @ 3.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$283 @ 27.6¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$1.5k @ 59.2¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$985 @ 48.3¢
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?Won
Yes$47 @ 33.6¢
North Korea missile test by September 15?Won
No$173 @ 55.8¢
North Korea missile test by September 15?Lost
Yes$117 @ 23.4¢
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?Won
No$62 @ 65.4¢
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?Lost
Yes$53 @ 35.0¢
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$934 @ 26.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 40.1¢
Israel military action against Iran in April?Lost
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Won
Yes$172 @ 57.3¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$502 @ 64.2¢
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?Won
Yes$105 @ 42.0¢
Trump x Xi talk before July?Lost
No$125 @ 24.3¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$611 @ 23.4¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$548 @ 13.7¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$686 @ 71.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Lost
Yes$194 @ 49.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$163	54.4¢
Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Politics	No	$121	66.5¢
Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	Politics	No	$108	61.4¢

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?Geopolitics
No$163 @ 54.4¢
Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?Politics
No$121 @ 66.5¢
Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?Politics
No$108 @ 61.4¢