0x92a7…eb78

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x92a7cfd236957a6f5472ac3f81e6468cd5d8eb78
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.5pp

ROI

+56%

Win rate

41% @ 28.6¢

Brier

0.219

Resolved

647

Avg size

$49

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (35/74)	+68%	74
Politics	42% (20/48)	+50%	48
Sports	27% (3/11)	-34%	11
Geopolitics	40% (4/10)	-12%	10
Tech	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+0%	1

Other74 bets
Hit rate
47% (35/74)
ROI
+68%
Politics48 bets
Hit rate
42% (20/48)
ROI
+50%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
27% (3/11)
ROI
-34%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
-12%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%

Track record

41% hit · 63/152

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	$51	37.7¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	$15	37.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 16, 2026?	Yes	$35	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Save America Act" during remarks in Georgia?	No	$8	14.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$87	64.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?	No	$578	72.2¢	Won
Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Marco Rubio give the next White House press briefing?	Yes	$25	15.5¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern Munich Legends win on 2026-08-15?	Yes	$23	13.0¢	Won
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$1.0k	21.2¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?	Yes	$163	82.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?	Yes	$313	19.2¢	Lost
Will Magnus Carlsen Win EWC 2026 Chess?	No	$13	8.6¢	Lost
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	$101	81.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$433	20.6¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani in September?	Yes	$34	74.0¢	Won
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	$151	28.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 11, 2026?	No	$16	10.7¢	Lost
The Hundred, Women: Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds	Sunrisers Leeds	$553	69.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner?	Yes	$55	26.9¢	Lost
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 25 and 30 minutes long?	Yes	$27	20.0¢	Won
Will PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. FK Septemvri Sofia end in a draw?	Yes	$3	0.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$157	64.8¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$8	1.6¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?	No	$201	35.5¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?	Yes	$68	14.9¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	No	$198	66.0¢	Won
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	Yes	$2.2k	55.9¢	Won
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$286	33.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$120	6.0¢	Lost
Did a valve or plumbing failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?	Yes	$19	76.8¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	Yes	$716	28.0¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$11	8.7¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?	No	$34	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?	No	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?	No	$50	50.0¢	Won
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$25	89.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026?	Yes	$149	74.3¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$151	59.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	Yes	$24	68.0¢	Lost
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$27	12.0¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern Munich Legends vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?	No	$160	16.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?	Yes	$9	0.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	$99	13.5¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	No	$624	18.0¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$148	79.3¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	No	$184	14.7¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost

Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?Won
No$51 @ 37.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Won
Yes$15 @ 37.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 16, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump say "Save America Act" during remarks in Georgia?Lost
No$8 @ 14.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$87 @ 64.0¢
Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?Won
No$578 @ 72.2¢
Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Marco Rubio give the next White House press briefing?Lost
Yes$25 @ 15.5¢
Will FC Bayern Munich Legends win on 2026-08-15?Won
Yes$23 @ 13.0¢
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
No$1.0k @ 21.2¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?Won
Yes$163 @ 82.7¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?Lost
Yes$313 @ 19.2¢
Will Magnus Carlsen Win EWC 2026 Chess?Lost
No$13 @ 8.6¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Won
No$101 @ 81.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$433 @ 20.6¢
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani in September?Won
Yes$34 @ 74.0¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Lost
Yes$151 @ 28.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 11, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 10.7¢
The Hundred, Women: Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers LeedsWon
Sunrisers Leeds$553 @ 69.1¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner?Lost
Yes$55 @ 26.9¢
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 25 and 30 minutes long?Won
Yes$27 @ 20.0¢
Will PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. FK Septemvri Sofia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$157 @ 64.8¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 1.6¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?Lost
No$201 @ 35.5¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?Won
Yes$68 @ 14.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Won
No$198 @ 66.0¢
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 55.9¢
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$286 @ 33.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$120 @ 6.0¢
Did a valve or plumbing failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?Won
Yes$19 @ 76.8¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?Won
Yes$716 @ 28.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 8.7¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?Lost
No$34 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Lost
No$1 @ 0.8¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?Won
No$50 @ 50.0¢
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
No$25 @ 89.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026?Won
Yes$149 @ 74.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$151 @ 59.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 68.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
No$27 @ 12.0¢
Will FC Bayern Munich Legends vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?Won
No$160 @ 16.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.6¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$99 @ 13.5¢
Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?Lost
No$624 @ 18.0¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$148 @ 79.3¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Won
No$184 @ 14.7¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$9.5k	50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$9.5k	50.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	75.7¢
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Politics	Yes	$408	34.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$236	70.6¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$220	49.9¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Politics	Yes	$159	11.4¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Sports	Golden State Valkyries	$100	39.0¢
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Politics	Yes	$94	7.9¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Culture	Yes	$76	56.7¢
Will Trump say "Fertilizer" or "Rural" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?	Politics	Yes	$47	51.0¢
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Politics	Yes	$44	14.7¢
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Politics	Yes	$44	2.6¢
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Politics	Yes	$44	2.6¢
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" during the Buccaneers vs Cowboys game?	Sports	Yes	$39	78.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ilhan Omar by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$39	37.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$32	16.0¢
Map Handicap: LDP (-1.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+1.5)	Sports	METANOIA WOLVES	$29	0.5¢
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Politics	Yes	$18	5.9¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$8	0.9¢
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions	Sports	Samsung Lions	$6	2.0¢
Will Gibraltar win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Sports	Yes	$4	4.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?	Politics	No	$2	0.3¢
LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 3 Winner	Sports	FURIA Esports	$2	0.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	—	Down	$2	0.1¢

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$9.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$9.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 75.7¢
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics
Yes$408 @ 34.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$236 @ 70.6¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$220 @ 49.9¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Politics
Yes$159 @ 11.4¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta DreamSports
Golden State Valkyries$100 @ 39.0¢
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Politics
Yes$94 @ 7.9¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?Culture
Yes$76 @ 56.7¢
Will Trump say "Fertilizer" or "Rural" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?Politics
Yes$47 @ 51.0¢
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Politics
Yes$44 @ 14.7¢
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Politics
Yes$44 @ 2.6¢
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Politics
Yes$44 @ 2.6¢
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" during the Buccaneers vs Cowboys game?Sports
Yes$39 @ 78.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ilhan Omar by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$39 @ 37.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$32 @ 16.0¢
Map Handicap: LDP (-1.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+1.5)Sports
METANOIA WOLVES$29 @ 0.5¢
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Politics
Yes$18 @ 5.9¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$8 @ 0.9¢
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung LionsSports
Samsung Lions$6 @ 2.0¢
Will Gibraltar win the UEFA EURO 2028?Sports
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?Politics
No$2 @ 0.3¢
LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 3 WinnerSports
FURIA Esports$2 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?—
Down$2 @ 0.1¢