← Smart money
0x92a7…eb78
ProfitableEdge
+13.8pp
ROI
+73%
Win rate
39% @ 25.3¢
Brier
0.259
Resolved
420
Avg size
$41
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 44% (14/32) | +111% | 32 |
| Politics | 33% (7/21) | +70% | 21 |
| Tech | 0% (0/4) | -100% | 4 |
| Sports | 50% (2/4) | -24% | 4 |
| Geopolitics | 33% (1/3) | -29% | 3 |
- Other32 bets
- Hit rate
- 44% (14/32)
- ROI
- +111%
- Politics21 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (7/21)
- ROI
- +70%
- Tech4 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/4)
- ROI
- -100%
- Sports4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- -24%
- Geopolitics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- -29%
Track record
38% hit · 24/64- Yes$87 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
- No$101 @ 81.9¢
- Yes$433 @ 20.6¢
- Yes$34 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$151 @ 28.8¢
- Yes$3 @ 0.8¢
- Yes$157 @ 64.8¢
- No$8 @ 1.6¢
- No$198 @ 66.0¢
- Yes$286 @ 33.0¢
- Yes$120 @ 6.0¢
- Yes$716 @ 28.0¢
- No$11 @ 8.7¢
- No$34 @ 0.4¢
- No$50 @ 50.0¢
- No$25 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$24 @ 68.0¢
- No$27 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$9 @ 0.6¢
- No$99 @ 13.5¢
- No$184 @ 14.7¢
- Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$110 @ 7.2¢
- Yes$33 @ 54.0¢
- No$1.7k @ 37.1¢
- Yes$890 @ 10.8¢
- Yes$8 @ 0.9¢
- Yes$23 @ 11.6¢
- Yes$3.9k @ 50.9¢
- No$39 @ 7.3¢
- No$6 @ 56.0¢
- Yes$728 @ 57.2¢
- No$23 @ 37.0¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 34.5¢
- No$118 @ 2.6¢
- No$296 @ 59.1¢
- Yes$22 @ 19.8¢
- Yes$373 @ 5.3¢
- Yes$63 @ 12.4¢
- No$1.2k @ 60.2¢
- Canadiens$205 @ 45.0¢
- No$477 @ 1.2¢
- No$313 @ 76.7¢
- Yes$72 @ 8.5¢
- Yes$407 @ 64.3¢
- Yes$70 @ 9.6¢
- No$14 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$204 @ 2.9¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? | Politics | No | $944 | 63.1¢ |
| Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September? | Politics | No | $172 | 66.4¢ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $161 | 76.2¢ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $154 | 63.1¢ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026? | Politics | No | $118 | 61.5¢ |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30? | Culture | Yes | $76 | 56.7¢ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ilhan Omar by September 30, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $39 | 37.1¢ |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | Geopolitics | Yes | $32 | 16.0¢ |
| Will Trump insult Xi by end of summit? | Politics | No | $20 | 92.0¢ |
| Will Gibraltar win the UEFA EURO 2028? | Sports | Yes | $4 | 4.0¢ |
- No$944 @ 63.1¢
- No$172 @ 66.4¢
- No$161 @ 76.2¢
- No$154 @ 63.1¢
- No$118 @ 61.5¢
- Yes$76 @ 56.7¢
- Yes$39 @ 37.1¢
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?GeopoliticsYes$32 @ 16.0¢
- No$20 @ 92.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 4.0¢