0x9272…0a19

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x927253833a29ff9825f5e3ffec83748765f90a19
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.8pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

65% @ 55.0¢

Brier

0.188

Resolved

182

Avg size

$54

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (28/49)	+26%	49
Tech	60% (3/5)	+62%	5
Sports	80% (4/5)	+2%	5
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-85%	3
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other49 bets
Hit rate
57% (28/49)
ROI
+26%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+62%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-85%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

55% hit · 36/65

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	No	$446	85.0¢	Won
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Makhachev	$10	74.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$98	24.4¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$39	78.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner	PARIVISION	$35	70.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?	Yes	$83	83.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$31	34.3¢	Lost
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)	Shevchenko	$57	55.0¢	Won
Grokipedia released by October 31?	No	$3	6.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	No	$530	51.4¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?	No	$1	64.0¢	Lost
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?	Yes	$1	78.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?	Yes	$34	59.4¢	Won
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$42	50.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?	Yes	$1	74.0¢	Won
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$10	59.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?	No	$82	84.0¢	Won
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	Yes	$38	3.8¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?	No	$58	19.3¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?	Yes	$16	78.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$20	88.4¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1	89.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?	150k	$52	62.0¢	Lost
Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$12	29.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	$23	13.7¢	Lost
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?	No	$30	60.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?	No	$385	70.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on October 8?	Yes	$50	45.5¢	Won
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	No	$87	25.4¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$62	9.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	$101	78.0¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$205	46.0¢	Lost
Grokipedia released by October 24?	No	$215	71.7¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$10	63.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 8?	Yes	$10	31.0¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?	No	$372	82.6¢	Won
Will Team Yandex win PGL Wallachia Season 9?	Yes	$20	83.7¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?	Yes	$330	66.0¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by October 31?	Yes	$10	11.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?	Yes	$46	21.7¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?	No	$4	78.0¢	Won
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?	No	$20	67.0¢	Won
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	$41	82.0¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?	No	$497	58.7¢	Won
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$61	76.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 8?	Yes	$1	23.4¢	Lost
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	$42	14.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?	No	$117	48.8¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?	Yes	$29	7.3¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?	No	$84	18.1¢	Lost

100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
No$446 @ 85.0¢
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Won
Makhachev$10 @ 74.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$98 @ 24.4¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$39 @ 78.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerLost
PARIVISION$35 @ 70.0¢
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?Won
Yes$83 @ 83.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 34.3¢
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)Won
Shevchenko$57 @ 55.0¢
Grokipedia released by October 31?Lost
No$3 @ 6.0¢
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Won
No$530 @ 51.4¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?Lost
No$1 @ 64.0¢
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 78.0¢
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?Won
Yes$34 @ 59.4¢
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
No$42 @ 50.7¢
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?Won
Yes$1 @ 74.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$10 @ 59.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?Won
No$82 @ 84.0¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?Lost
Yes$38 @ 3.8¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Lost
No$58 @ 19.3¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Won
Yes$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$20 @ 88.4¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$1 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?Lost
150k$52 @ 62.0¢
Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$12 @ 29.7¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?Lost
No$23 @ 13.7¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?Lost
No$30 @ 60.0¢
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?Lost
No$385 @ 70.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on October 8?Won
Yes$50 @ 45.5¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Lost
No$87 @ 25.4¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 9.0¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsWon
Team Yandex$101 @ 78.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$205 @ 46.0¢
Grokipedia released by October 24?Won
No$215 @ 71.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 8?Lost
Yes$10 @ 31.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?Won
No$372 @ 82.6¢
Will Team Yandex win PGL Wallachia Season 9?Won
Yes$20 @ 83.7¢
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Won
Yes$330 @ 66.0¢
TikTok sale announced by October 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 11.9¢
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?Lost
Yes$46 @ 21.7¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?Won
No$4 @ 78.0¢
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?Won
No$20 @ 67.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?Won
No$41 @ 82.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?Won
No$497 @ 58.7¢
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$61 @ 76.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 23.4¢
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?Lost
No$42 @ 14.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?Won
No$117 @ 48.8¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?Lost
Yes$29 @ 7.3¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?Lost
No$84 @ 18.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$1.5k	86.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$350	87.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	79.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$38	79.0¢

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$1.5k @ 86.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$350 @ 87.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 79.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$38 @ 79.0¢