0x9238…b73e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9238743eeba8bbfe9e85ac7ba2e1e3d77877b73e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.7pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

36% @ 32.9¢

Brier

0.153

Resolved

2520

Avg size

$21

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	39% (65/166)	-5%	166
Other	52% (74/142)	+35%	142
Geopolitics	30% (27/91)	+5%	91
Sports	51% (42/83)	+28%	83
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Politics166 bets
Hit rate
39% (65/166)
ROI
-5%
Other142 bets
Hit rate
52% (74/142)
ROI
+35%
Geopolitics91 bets
Hit rate
30% (27/91)
ROI
+5%
Sports83 bets
Hit rate
51% (42/83)
ROI
+28%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 208/484

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$2	6.1¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	$18	35.0¢	Won
Spain leading at halftime?	Yes	$10	39.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$71	35.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	10.5¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$35	34.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$68	68.2¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$23	45.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$430	44.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$548	23.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$12	8.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	$444	33.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	No	$712	53.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	Yes	$562	67.4¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Team Falcons	$20	65.5¢	Won
Will United Russia win the next Sverdlovsk Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	$44	88.4¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$30	2.4¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$44	36.2¢	Lost
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?	Yes	$4	3.8¢	Lost
Will United Russia win the next Tambov Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	$1	83.0¢	Won
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19?	No	$121	36.4¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	$294	58.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	18.8¢	Lost
Will United Russia win the next Altai Krai Parliament elections?	Yes	$39	84.7¢	Won
Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	$35	88.0¢	Won
Will A Just Russia win the next Tyumen Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	$105	84.6¢	Lost
Belgium vs. France: O/U 1.5	Over	$6	12.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$44	25.1¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$64	25.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$49	12.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$150	12.5¢	Lost
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	No	$71	31.9¢	Won
Spain leading at halftime?	Yes	$11	74.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$244	67.7¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$55	13.4¢	Lost
Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?	Yes	$56	85.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$18	0.8¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	No	$123	42.1¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$77	9.0¢	Lost
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Under	$219	54.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	$112	45.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?	No	$52	30.4¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	No	$15	7.5¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	$19	64.0¢	Won
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$32	64.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$17	5.0¢	Lost
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	6.0¢	Lost
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Under	$39	38.5¢	Won

Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.1¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Won
Yes$18 @ 35.0¢
Spain leading at halftime?Won
Yes$10 @ 39.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$71 @ 35.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 10.5¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$35 @ 34.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$68 @ 68.2¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$23 @ 45.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$430 @ 44.6¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$548 @ 23.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 8.0¢
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?Lost
Yes$444 @ 33.6¢
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?Lost
No$712 @ 53.5¢
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?Won
Yes$562 @ 67.4¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
Team Falcons$20 @ 65.5¢
Will United Russia win the next Sverdlovsk Oblast Parliament elections?Won
Yes$44 @ 88.4¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$30 @ 2.4¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$44 @ 36.2¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.8¢
Will United Russia win the next Tambov Oblast Parliament elections?Won
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19?Lost
No$121 @ 36.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Won
No$294 @ 58.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 18.8¢
Will United Russia win the next Altai Krai Parliament elections?Won
Yes$39 @ 84.7¢
Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?Won
Yes$35 @ 88.0¢
Will A Just Russia win the next Tyumen Oblast Parliament elections?Lost
Yes$105 @ 84.6¢
Belgium vs. France: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$6 @ 12.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$44 @ 25.1¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$64 @ 25.6¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$49 @ 12.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$150 @ 12.5¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Won
No$71 @ 31.9¢
Spain leading at halftime?Won
Yes$11 @ 74.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$244 @ 67.7¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$55 @ 13.4¢
Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?Won
Yes$56 @ 85.3¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$18 @ 0.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Lost
No$123 @ 42.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$77 @ 9.0¢
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$219 @ 54.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Won
No$112 @ 45.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Won
No$52 @ 30.4¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?Lost
No$15 @ 7.5¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsWon
Team Falcons$19 @ 64.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$32 @ 64.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$17 @ 5.0¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 6.0¢
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5Won
Under$39 @ 38.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.3k	78.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$1.9k	66.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.6k	86.5¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$923	40.2¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$860	90.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$781	65.1¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$761	74.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$483	64.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$475	63.3¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$470	58.7¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$469	52.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$439	62.7¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$428	45.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$404	63.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$354	28.3¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$346	65.3¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$322	24.3¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$314	17.4¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$277	55.7¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$260	16.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$251	43.3¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$241	32.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$233	21.2¢
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$227	37.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$218	30.3¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$214	71.3¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$211	32.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$206	54.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$192	64.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$184	61.4¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.3k @ 78.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$1.9k @ 66.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.6k @ 86.5¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?Geopolitics
No$923 @ 40.2¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$860 @ 90.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$781 @ 65.1¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$761 @ 74.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$483 @ 64.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$475 @ 63.3¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$470 @ 58.7¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$469 @ 52.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$439 @ 62.7¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$428 @ 45.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$404 @ 63.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$354 @ 28.3¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$346 @ 65.3¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$322 @ 24.3¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$314 @ 17.4¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?Geopolitics
No$277 @ 55.7¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$260 @ 16.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$251 @ 43.3¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$241 @ 32.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$233 @ 21.2¢
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$227 @ 37.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$218 @ 30.3¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$214 @ 71.3¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Politics
Yes$211 @ 32.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$206 @ 54.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$192 @ 64.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$184 @ 61.4¢