0x8fed…a1f9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8feda380128930f5edf6025f247b12312fa6a1f9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

58% @ 53.2¢

Brier

0.179

Resolved

570

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (73/150)	+1%	150
Politics	81% (26/32)	+19%	32
Sports	39% (7/18)	-28%	18
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+19%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+10%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other150 bets
Hit rate
49% (73/150)
ROI
+1%
Politics32 bets
Hit rate
81% (26/32)
ROI
+19%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
-28%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+19%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+10%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

53% hit · 109/207

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$60	85.1¢	Won
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?	No	$41	33.5¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	No	$10	24.0¢	Lost
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16?	No	$20	46.5¢	Won
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	No	$20	62.0¢	Won
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11?	No	$43	28.0¢	Lost
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Over	$20	50.5¢	Lost
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand	Bangladesh	$10	41.0¢	Lost
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	No	$50	74.0¢	Won
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	$29	41.4¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09?	No	$20	36.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$45	72.6¢	Won
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	$24	50.0¢	Lost
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	$1	25.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$50	45.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$60	79.3¢	Won
Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$10	44.0¢	Won
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11?	No	$20	26.0¢	Lost
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12?	No	$35	58.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$10	64.0¢	Won
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	No	$54	50.6¢	Lost
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-25?	No	$1	53.0¢	Won
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	No	$10	63.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	No	$36	77.0¢	Lost
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	Yes	$46	88.4¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Natus Vincere	$20	21.5¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Vitality	$40	80.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$18	71.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$9	18.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$34	42.5¢	Lost
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	No	$43	70.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 22?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 217.5	Over	$1	48.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??	No	$45	89.0¢	Won
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5	Over	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$50	73.3¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$20	35.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$38	69.6¢	Won
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?	No	$58	44.0¢	Won
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	No	$10	43.0¢	Lost
Senators vs. Devils	Senators	$41	49.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 24?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$10	71.0¢	Lost
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5	Under	$27	49.0¢	Lost
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)	KT Rolster	$46	43.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 19?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$10	57.0¢	Lost
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	$49	47.2¢	Lost
Penguins vs. Capitals	Penguins	$10	41.0¢	Lost
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	Yes	$10	72.7¢	Won

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 85.1¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?Won
No$41 @ 33.5¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Lost
No$10 @ 24.0¢
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16?Won
No$20 @ 46.5¢
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Won
No$20 @ 62.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11?Lost
No$43 @ 28.0¢
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$20 @ 50.5¢
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New ZealandLost
Bangladesh$10 @ 41.0¢
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?Won
No$50 @ 74.0¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Lost
Rockets$29 @ 41.4¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09?Lost
No$20 @ 36.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$45 @ 72.6¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
No$24 @ 50.0¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Lost
Dplus KIA$1 @ 25.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 45.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$60 @ 79.3¢
Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
No$10 @ 44.0¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11?Lost
No$20 @ 26.0¢
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12?Lost
No$35 @ 58.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$10 @ 64.0¢
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$54 @ 50.6¢
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-25?Won
No$1 @ 53.0¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Won
No$10 @ 63.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?Lost
No$36 @ 77.0¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Won
Yes$46 @ 88.4¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsLost
Natus Vincere$20 @ 21.5¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsWon
Vitality$40 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 71.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 18.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 42.5¢
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Won
No$43 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 22?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 217.5Won
Over$1 @ 48.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??Won
No$45 @ 89.0¢
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5Lost
Over$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 73.3¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$20 @ 35.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$38 @ 69.6¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?Won
No$58 @ 44.0¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
No$10 @ 43.0¢
Senators vs. DevilsLost
Senators$41 @ 49.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 24?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$10 @ 71.0¢
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$27 @ 49.0¢
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)Lost
KT Rolster$46 @ 43.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 19?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$10 @ 57.0¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Lost
No$49 @ 47.2¢
Penguins vs. CapitalsLost
Penguins$10 @ 41.0¢
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?Won
Yes$10 @ 72.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?	—	Yes	$65	37.7¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$39	76.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$33	37.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$20	39.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$19	65.0¢
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	—	Yes	$16	99.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	Yes	$10	23.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	95.0¢
Will another outcome occur in the CO-01 Democratic primary?	—	No	$10	99.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$10	95.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	96.4¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$10	96.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	93.4¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Politics	No	$10	95.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	92.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$10	94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	93.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	Geopolitics	No	$10	78.0¢
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?	—	No	$10	77.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	70.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Politics	Yes	$10	13.7¢
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?	—	No	$10	99.9¢
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Politics	No	$10	99.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$10	98.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	95.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	95.0¢

Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?—
Yes$65 @ 37.7¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$39 @ 76.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$33 @ 37.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$20 @ 39.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Politics
No$19 @ 65.0¢
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?—
Yes$16 @ 99.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
Yes$10 @ 23.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 95.0¢
Will another outcome occur in the CO-01 Democratic primary?—
No$10 @ 99.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 95.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 96.4¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$10 @ 96.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 93.4¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Politics
No$10 @ 95.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 92.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 93.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?Geopolitics
No$10 @ 78.0¢
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?—
No$10 @ 77.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 70.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics
Yes$10 @ 13.7¢
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?—
No$10 @ 99.9¢
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics
No$10 @ 99.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 98.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 95.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 95.0¢