← Smart money
0x8f3f…a2b7
ProfitableEdge
+29.4pp
ROI
+29%
Win rate
75% @ 46.1¢
Brier
0.332
Resolved
57
Avg size
$60
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 86% (6/7) | +99% | 7 |
| Politics | 40% (2/5) | -81% | 5 |
| Economy | 50% (1/2) | +25% | 2 |
- Other7 bets
- Hit rate
- 86% (6/7)
- ROI
- +99%
- Politics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 40% (2/5)
- ROI
- -81%
- Economy2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +25%
Track record
64% hit · 9/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | Yes | $50 | 57.4¢ | Lost |
| French election called by October 31? | Yes | $60 | 22.8¢ | Lost |
| French election called by December 31? | Yes | $1.0k | 59.6¢ | Lost |
| Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | Yes | $81 | 66.4¢ | Won |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | $40 | 74.9¢ | Won |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | $120 | 48.0¢ | Won |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | $9 | 43.0¢ | Lost |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | $22 | 56.5¢ | Won |
| Will Éric Lombard be the next Prime Minister of France? | No | $17 | 84.9¢ | Won |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | No | $702 | 58.9¢ | Won |
| Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | Yes | $220 | 29.3¢ | Won |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | $240 | 24.0¢ | Lost |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | Yes | $750 | 39.7¢ | Won |
| French election called by June 30, 2026? | No | $100 | 77.8¢ | Won |
- Yes$50 @ 57.4¢
- Yes$60 @ 22.8¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 59.6¢
- Yes$81 @ 66.4¢
- Yes$40 @ 74.9¢
- Yes$120 @ 48.0¢
- No$9 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 56.5¢
- No$17 @ 84.9¢
- No$702 @ 58.9¢
- Yes$220 @ 29.3¢
- Yes$240 @ 24.0¢
- Yes$750 @ 39.7¢
- No$100 @ 77.8¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $675 | 28.5¢ |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $540 | 22.7¢ |
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | Business | No | $100 | 89.0¢ |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $93 | 3.6¢ |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $92 | 3.8¢ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Politics | Yes | $50 | 12.0¢ |
- Yes$675 @ 28.5¢
- Yes$540 @ 22.7¢
- Mistral AI IPO before 2027?BusinessNo$100 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$93 @ 3.6¢
- Yes$92 @ 3.8¢
- Yes$50 @ 12.0¢