0x8e8d…5a27

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8e8d8163c34d90ce063c7438637a0e5c3ffa5a27
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.6pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

18% @ 16.6¢

Brier

0.066

Resolved

3350

Avg size

$32

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	22% (172/792)	+22%	792
Politics	18% (10/57)	-36%	57
Sports	43% (13/30)	-1%	30
Geopolitics	24% (7/29)	-6%	29
Tech	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Crypto	25% (1/4)	-33%	4
Business	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other792 bets
Hit rate
22% (172/792)
ROI
+22%
Politics57 bets
Hit rate
18% (10/57)
ROI
-36%
Sports30 bets
Hit rate
43% (13/30)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics29 bets
Hit rate
24% (7/29)
ROI
-6%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-33%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

22% hit · 203/922

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?	Yes	$14	9.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August 2026?	Yes	$4	1.8¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?	No	$89	86.0¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?	Yes	$11	4.2¢	Lost
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Lost
Colts vs. Seahawks	Colts	$968	38.6¢	Lost
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?	No	$91	88.0¢	Won
Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will the Conservative Party (H) win more than 31 seats in the Norwegian election?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC August 12-18?	Yes	$14	6.2¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	No	$93	88.0¢	Won
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$28	6.1¢	Lost
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$16	8.0¢	Lost
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?	No	$32	87.7¢	Won
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?	Yes	$117	7.5¢	Lost
Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?	No	$39	87.5¢	Won
Next French confidence vote passes?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	$49	40.7¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$49	69.6¢	Won
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the next Prime Minister of France?	Yes	$7	3.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1?	Yes	$11	10.0¢	Lost
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?	No	$13	4.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?	No	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?	No	$92	89.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?	Yes	$1	9.7¢	Won
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?	Yes	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $340b on August 31?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will LaTrice Verrett be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 6)?	Yes	$13	9.7¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$130	8.3¢	Lost
Hezbollah strike on Israel by September 30?	Yes	$20	7.4¢	Lost
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?	No	$54	88.0¢	Lost
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	$35	88.0¢	Won
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$11	13.7¢	Lost
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?	No	$8	87.9¢	Won
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	$28	8.6¢	Lost
OpenAI browser by September 30?	No	$191	89.0¢	Won
OpenAI browser by September 30?	Yes	$40	7.8¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Putin" during "Fighting Oligarchy" speech on September 1?	No	$15	88.0¢	Lost
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	$1	7.2¢	Lost
Will Melania Trump sue Hunter Biden by August 31?	Yes	$14	6.8¢	Lost
Kash Patel out by August 31?	Yes	$2	2.2¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$3	5.5¢	Lost
Will Paulo Portas win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Will a Justin Bieber song reach #1 this year?	Yes	$23	7.4¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$438	68.4¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$589	27.7¢	Lost
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?Lost
Yes$14 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.8¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Won
No$89 @ 86.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 4.2¢
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Colts vs. SeahawksLost
Colts$968 @ 38.6¢
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?Won
No$91 @ 88.0¢
Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will the Conservative Party (H) win more than 31 seats in the Norwegian election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC August 12-18?Lost
Yes$14 @ 6.2¢
Will Base launch a token in 2025?Won
No$93 @ 88.0¢
Will Base launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$28 @ 6.1¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$16 @ 8.0¢
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Won
No$32 @ 87.7¢
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Lost
Yes$117 @ 7.5¢
Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Won
No$39 @ 87.5¢
Next French confidence vote passes?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Lost
No$49 @ 40.7¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$49 @ 69.6¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the next Prime Minister of France?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$11 @ 10.0¢
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?Lost
No$13 @ 4.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?Lost
No$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?Lost
No$92 @ 89.0¢
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 9.7¢
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $340b on August 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will LaTrice Verrett be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 6)?Lost
Yes$13 @ 9.7¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$130 @ 8.3¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by September 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 7.4¢
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?Lost
No$54 @ 88.0¢
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Won
No$35 @ 88.0¢
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$11 @ 13.7¢
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?Won
No$8 @ 87.9¢
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?Lost
Yes$28 @ 8.6¢
OpenAI browser by September 30?Won
No$191 @ 89.0¢
OpenAI browser by September 30?Lost
Yes$40 @ 7.8¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Putin" during "Fighting Oligarchy" speech on September 1?Lost
No$15 @ 88.0¢
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.2¢
Will Melania Trump sue Hunter Biden by August 31?Lost
Yes$14 @ 6.8¢
Kash Patel out by August 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.5¢
Will Paulo Portas win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will a Justin Bieber song reach #1 this year?Lost
Yes$23 @ 7.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$438 @ 68.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$589 @ 27.7¢
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$351	88.0¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$242	93.0¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$186	89.1¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$145	72.5¢
Will Martin Ross win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?	Politics	No	$144	95.4¢
Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	Culture	No	$141	94.0¢
Will Namadi Umar Alhaji win the 2027 Jigawa State gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$138	92.0¢
Will Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?	Politics	Yes	$93	91.0¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$90	90.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$81	92.7¢
Will Jamie Joyce win the CA-12 House seat?	Politics	No	$77	91.0¢
Will Iraq join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$60	93.0¢
Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	No	$60	92.0¢
GTA VI released by November 30?	Culture	Yes	$60	92.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	No	$60	92.0¢
Will Lateefah Simon win the CA-12 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$60	92.0¢
Will Helio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?	Politics	No	$59	91.0¢
Will the National Rally group hold 12 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Politics	No	$59	91.0¢
Will Eduardo Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$59	91.0¢
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$59	98.5¢
Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	Politics	No	$59	90.0¢
Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Politics	No	$59	90.0¢
Will Penélope Cruz win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$58	89.0¢
Will Alfredo Willy Benavente Godoy win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?	Politics	No	$58	96.0¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?	Politics	Yes	$56	94.0¢
Will Don Woodstock win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?	Politics	No	$55	92.2¢
Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$54	94.0¢
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?	Tech	No	$53	93.0¢
Will Otaviano Pivetta win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?	Politics	No	$52	89.0¢
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$50	7.2¢

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$351 @ 88.0¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$242 @ 93.0¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$186 @ 89.1¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$145 @ 72.5¢
Will Martin Ross win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?Politics
No$144 @ 95.4¢
Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?Culture
No$141 @ 94.0¢
Will Namadi Umar Alhaji win the 2027 Jigawa State gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$138 @ 92.0¢
Will Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?Politics
Yes$93 @ 91.0¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$90 @ 90.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$81 @ 92.7¢
Will Jamie Joyce win the CA-12 House seat?Politics
No$77 @ 91.0¢
Will Iraq join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$60 @ 93.0¢
Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
No$60 @ 92.0¢
GTA VI released by November 30?Culture
Yes$60 @ 92.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
No$60 @ 92.0¢
Will Lateefah Simon win the CA-12 House seat?Politics
Yes$60 @ 92.0¢
Will Helio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?Politics
No$59 @ 91.0¢
Will the National Rally group hold 12 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?Politics
No$59 @ 91.0¢
Will Eduardo Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?Politics
Yes$59 @ 91.0¢
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$59 @ 98.5¢
Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?Politics
No$59 @ 90.0¢
Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?Politics
No$59 @ 90.0¢
Will Penélope Cruz win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$58 @ 89.0¢
Will Alfredo Willy Benavente Godoy win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?Politics
No$58 @ 96.0¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?Politics
Yes$56 @ 94.0¢
Will Don Woodstock win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?Politics
No$55 @ 92.2¢
Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$54 @ 94.0¢
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?Tech
No$53 @ 93.0¢
Will Otaviano Pivetta win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?Politics
No$52 @ 89.0¢
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?Geopolitics
Yes$50 @ 7.2¢