0x8e58…205a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8e581b4bfaee8af48ad44fb16f301d6cd77f205a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.3pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

55% @ 42.5¢

Brier

0.147

Resolved

190

Avg size

$299

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (18/44)	+18%	44
Sports	17% (4/23)	-78%	23
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other44 bets
Hit rate
41% (18/44)
ROI
+18%
Sports23 bets
Hit rate
17% (4/23)
ROI
-78%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 22/69

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Under	$10	27.0¢	Won
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$29	18.4¢	Lost
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?	Yes	$450	44.2¢	Lost
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score	No	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Spain?	Yes	$8	11.0¢	Lost
Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	Yes	$36	25.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 15?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$15	1.3¢	Lost
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: FC Bayern München O/U 3.5	Under	$51	55.0¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	$94	38.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Italy?	Yes	$5	14.0¢	Lost
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?	Yes	$2.2k	88.5¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $120 in October?	No	$200	51.9¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	$94	60.0¢	Lost
Jeju SK FC vs. Bayern Munich: O/U 4.5	Under	$10	46.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?	Yes	$10.4k	56.2¢	Won
Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley?	Yes	$2.1k	84.4¢	Won
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score	No	$103	52.0¢	Won
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?	Trump	$1.7k	18.3¢	Lost
Bills vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	$100	50.0¢	Lost
Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?	Yes	$460	40.1¢	Won
Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France?	No	$1.4k	79.3¢	Won
Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa	Mayar Sherif	$10	48.0¢	Won
Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa	Paula Badosa	$14	17.9¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	$100	41.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?	No	$1000	51.7¢	Lost
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$13	24.0¢	Lost
Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France?	Yes	$80	4.0¢	Lost
Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024?	No	$2.0k	58.5¢	Lost
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?	No	$6.2k	45.8¢	Won
Lucie Castets appointed as French PM by August 31?	No	$1.1k	72.7¢	Won
Lucie Castets appointed as French PM by August 31?	Yes	$2.4k	48.0¢	Lost
Someone else next Prime Minister of France?	Yes	$10	23.0¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$216	41.9¢	Lost
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: FC Augsburg O/U 1.5	Under	$67	46.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 16?	Yes	$27	5.1¢	Lost
Spread: Bayern Munich (-1.5)	Jeju SK FC	$5	37.0¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	$21	36.0¢	Lost
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe	Frances Tiafoe	$16	16.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 30?	Yes	$30	0.3¢	Lost
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 France?	Yes	$10	13.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	$5	22.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "MAGA" 3 or more times at debate?	No	$50	30.0¢	Lost
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?	Yes	$475	20.0¢	Lost
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?	Kamala	$2.6k	41.4¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Yes	$50	19.0¢	Lost
Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?	No	$281	46.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?	No	$53	55.0¢	Won
Will Germany beat France?	Yes	$104	21.9¢	Lost
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?	Yes	$50	12.0¢	Lost

Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Won
Under$10 @ 27.0¢
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$29 @ 18.4¢
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?Lost
Yes$450 @ 44.2¢
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$1 @ 2.5¢
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Spain?Lost
Yes$8 @ 11.0¢
Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election?Lost
Yes$36 @ 25.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$15 @ 1.3¢
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: FC Bayern München O/U 3.5Won
Under$51 @ 55.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-09-24?Lost
Yes$94 @ 38.0¢
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Italy?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 88.5¢
Will Solana dip to $120 in October?Won
No$200 @ 51.9¢
Will France win on 2026-10-02?Lost
Yes$94 @ 60.0¢
Jeju SK FC vs. Bayern Munich: O/U 4.5Won
Under$10 @ 46.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?Won
Yes$10.4k @ 56.2¢
Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 84.4¢
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreWon
No$103 @ 52.0¢
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?Lost
Trump$1.7k @ 18.3¢
Bills vs. JaguarsLost
Jaguars$100 @ 50.0¢
Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?Won
Yes$460 @ 40.1¢
Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? Won
No$1.4k @ 79.3¢
Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula BadosaWon
Mayar Sherif$10 @ 48.0¢
Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula BadosaLost
Paula Badosa$14 @ 17.9¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?Lost
Yes$100 @ 41.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Lost
No$1000 @ 51.7¢
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$13 @ 24.0¢
Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France? Lost
Yes$80 @ 4.0¢
Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024?Lost
No$2.0k @ 58.5¢
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?Won
No$6.2k @ 45.8¢
Lucie Castets appointed as French PM by August 31?Won
No$1.1k @ 72.7¢
Lucie Castets appointed as French PM by August 31?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 48.0¢
Someone else next Prime Minister of France?Won
Yes$10 @ 23.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$216 @ 41.9¢
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: FC Augsburg O/U 1.5Lost
Under$67 @ 46.0¢
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 16?Lost
Yes$27 @ 5.1¢
Spread: Bayern Munich (-1.5)Won
Jeju SK FC$5 @ 37.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?Lost
No$21 @ 36.0¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Arthur Fils vs Frances TiafoeLost
Frances Tiafoe$16 @ 16.0¢
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 0.3¢
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 France?Lost
Yes$10 @ 13.0¢
Will England win on 2026-09-26?Lost
Yes$5 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" 3 or more times at debate?Lost
No$50 @ 30.0¢
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?Lost
Yes$475 @ 20.0¢
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?Lost
Kamala$2.6k @ 41.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 19.0¢
Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?Lost
No$281 @ 46.5¢
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?Won
No$53 @ 55.0¢
Will Germany beat France?Lost
Yes$104 @ 21.9¢
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?Lost
Yes$50 @ 12.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?	—	Kamala	$2.0k	41.4¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?	—	No	$1000	51.7¢
Simone Biles wins 4 gold medals?	—	Yes	$829	94.9¢
Will Aresnal win the Premier League?	—	Yes	$502	31.0¢
Will the missing submarine be found by June 23?	—	No	$500	16.9¢
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?	—	Yes	$364	20.0¢
Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?	—	No	$281	46.5¢
FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: FC Bayern München O/U 2.5	Sports	Over	$204	56.5¢
Spain vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Sports	No	$194	69.7¢
Will Germany beat France?	—	Yes	$104	21.9¢
Bills vs. Jaguars	—	Jaguars	$100	50.0¢
SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score	—	No	$100	53.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?	Sports	Yes	$97	41.0¢
Will France win on 2026-10-02?	Sports	Yes	$92	60.0¢
Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France?	—	Yes	$80	4.0¢
Spain vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Sports	No	$75	50.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-09-24?	Sports	Yes	$73	38.0¢
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: FC Augsburg O/U 1.5	Sports	Under	$65	46.0¢
Spread: FC Bayern München (-3.5)	Sports	1. FC Magdeburg	$56	57.0¢
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Sports	No	$50	68.0¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" 3 or more times at debate?	—	No	$50	30.0¢
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?	—	Yes	$50	12.0¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Sports	Yamal	$48	27.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Sports	Yes	$47	33.0¢
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 30?	—	Yes	$30	0.3¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Sports	No	$29	43.0¢
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$29	18.4¢
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 16?	—	Yes	$27	5.1¢
Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch	—	Anna Bondar	$27	29.0¢
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score	—	No	$27	44.0¢

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?—
Kamala$2.0k @ 41.4¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?—
No$1000 @ 51.7¢
Simone Biles wins 4 gold medals?—
Yes$829 @ 94.9¢
Will Aresnal win the Premier League?—
Yes$502 @ 31.0¢
Will the missing submarine be found by June 23?—
No$500 @ 16.9¢
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?—
Yes$364 @ 20.0¢
Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?—
No$281 @ 46.5¢
FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: FC Bayern München O/U 2.5Sports
Over$204 @ 56.5¢
Spain vs. Czechia: Both Teams to ScoreSports
No$194 @ 69.7¢
Will Germany beat France?—
Yes$104 @ 21.9¢
Bills vs. Jaguars—
Jaguars$100 @ 50.0¢
SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score—
No$100 @ 53.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?Sports
Yes$97 @ 41.0¢
Will France win on 2026-10-02?Sports
Yes$92 @ 60.0¢
Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France? —
Yes$80 @ 4.0¢
Spain vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreSports
No$75 @ 50.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-09-24?Sports
Yes$73 @ 38.0¢
FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München: FC Augsburg O/U 1.5Sports
Under$65 @ 46.0¢
Spread: FC Bayern München (-3.5)Sports
1. FC Magdeburg$56 @ 57.0¢
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreSports
No$50 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" 3 or more times at debate?—
No$50 @ 30.0¢
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?—
Yes$50 @ 12.0¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?Sports
Yamal$48 @ 27.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?Sports
Yes$47 @ 33.0¢
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 30?—
Yes$30 @ 0.3¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?Sports
No$29 @ 43.0¢
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$29 @ 18.4¢
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 16?—
Yes$27 @ 5.1¢
Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch—
Anna Bondar$27 @ 29.0¢
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score—
No$27 @ 44.0¢