← Smart money
0x8c92…ebd9
SharpEdge
+13.6pp
ROI
+5%
Win rate
92% @ 78.2¢
Brier
0.064
Resolved
450
Avg size
$875
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 75% (6/8) | +5% | 8 |
| Sports | 50% (1/2) | +17% | 2 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +20% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other8 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (6/8)
- ROI
- +5%
- Sports2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +17%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +20%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
67% hit · 8/12| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | No | $234 | 78.3¢ | Lost |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | $65.6k | 83.2¢ | Won |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? | Yes | $37.3k | 86.4¢ | Won |
| James Comey arrested by April 29? | Yes | $24.1k | 80.5¢ | Won |
| Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? | Yes | $302 | 4.3¢ | Lost |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | $100.3k | 75.6¢ | Won |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? | No | $44.0k | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | No | $14.0k | 84.0¢ | Won |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? | No | $46.8k | 86.4¢ | Won |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | $11.0k | 37.6¢ | Lost |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | Khamzat Chimaev | $42.9k | 81.5¢ | Lost |
| The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani | Inoue | $7.4k | 84.1¢ | Won |
- No$234 @ 78.3¢
- Yes$65.6k @ 83.2¢
- Yes$37.3k @ 86.4¢
- Yes$24.1k @ 80.5¢
- Yes$302 @ 4.3¢
- Yes$100.3k @ 75.6¢
- No$44.0k @ 88.0¢
- No$14.0k @ 84.0¢
- No$46.8k @ 86.4¢
- Yes$11.0k @ 37.6¢
- Khamzat Chimaev$42.9k @ 81.5¢
- Inoue$7.4k @ 84.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…