0x8c65…dcf7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8c65191e411feec6c73aefbd74a55d246099dcf7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

39% @ 34.4¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

2328

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (294/827)	+14%	827
Sports	40% (34/85)	-8%	85
Politics	38% (29/77)	-33%	77
Science	50% (11/22)	+75%	22
Tech	48% (10/21)	+15%	21
Geopolitics	38% (6/16)	+22%	16
Culture	9% (1/11)	+15%	11
Economy	43% (3/7)	+54%	7
Crypto	50% (3/6)	+220%	6
Business	67% (4/6)	+49%	6

Other827 bets
Hit rate
36% (294/827)
ROI
+14%
Sports85 bets
Hit rate
40% (34/85)
ROI
-8%
Politics77 bets
Hit rate
38% (29/77)
ROI
-33%
Science22 bets
Hit rate
50% (11/22)
ROI
+75%
Tech21 bets
Hit rate
48% (10/21)
ROI
+15%
Geopolitics16 bets
Hit rate
38% (6/16)
ROI
+22%
Culture11 bets
Hit rate
9% (1/11)
ROI
+15%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+54%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+220%
Business6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+49%

Track record

37% hit · 395/1078

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	Spurs	$6	57.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$7	68.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?	Yes	$17	86.8¢	Won
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$12	24.0¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	$7	74.0¢	Won
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?	No	$2	51.0¢	Won
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$25	46.9¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	No	$1	5.9¢	Lost
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Nuggets vs. Pelicans	Pelicans	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5	Over	$3	51.0¢	Lost
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	No	$2	15.0¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Lost
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?	Yes	$79	80.0¢	Won
Pacers vs. Pelicans	Pelicans	$15	56.0¢	Won
Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 20?	No	$6	31.8¢	Lost
Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$11	22.0¢	Lost
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trae Young be traded this season?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Won
Will "Sarah's Oil" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	No	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$2	34.0¢	Lost
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones	Kentucky Wildcats	$680	34.0¢	Lost
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 1.5% and 3%?	Yes	$5	12.2¢	Lost
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote?	No	$5	54.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or higher on November 21?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City?	No	$273	46.6¢	Won
Wizards vs. Hornets	Hornets	$7	66.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 3?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Elliot Anderson join Liverpool?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Stars vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	$11	53.0¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$31	62.9¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$11	55.0¢	Won
Will Kanye visit Israel by December 31?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?	Yes	$8	3.1¢	Lost
Heat vs. Mavericks	Heat	$2	19.0¢	Lost
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	$7	14.0¢	Lost
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Weibo Gaming	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	21.5¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$13	63.5¢	Won
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)	Hornets	$10	52.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$61	61.0¢	Won
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?	Yes	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?	Yes	$24	48.0¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?	No	$72	72.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$39	19.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 4?	No	$12	24.0¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$23	45.0¢	Won

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Won
Spurs$6 @ 57.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$7 @ 68.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Won
Yes$17 @ 86.8¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$12 @ 24.0¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
Yes$7 @ 74.0¢
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?Won
No$2 @ 51.0¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$25 @ 46.9¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?Lost
No$1 @ 5.9¢
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Nuggets vs. PelicansLost
Pelicans$1 @ 12.0¢
Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Lost
Over$3 @ 51.0¢
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Won
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Lost
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?Won
Yes$79 @ 80.0¢
Pacers vs. PelicansWon
Pelicans$15 @ 56.0¢
Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 20?Lost
No$6 @ 31.8¢
Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$11 @ 22.0¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Trae Young be traded this season?Won
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will "Sarah's Oil" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Lost
No$1 @ 6.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$2 @ 34.0¢
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesLost
Kentucky Wildcats$680 @ 34.0¢
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 1.5% and 3%?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.2¢
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Won
No$5 @ 54.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or higher on November 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City?Won
No$273 @ 46.6¢
Wizards vs. HornetsWon
Hornets$7 @ 66.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Elliot Anderson join Liverpool?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Stars vs. CanadiensLost
Canadiens$11 @ 53.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Won
Yes$31 @ 62.9¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$11 @ 55.0¢
Will Kanye visit Israel by December 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.1¢
Heat vs. MavericksLost
Heat$2 @ 19.0¢
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.0¢
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLost
Weibo Gaming$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 21.5¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$13 @ 63.5¢
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Won
Hornets$10 @ 52.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?Won
Yes$24 @ 48.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?Won
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$39 @ 19.3¢
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 4?Won
No$12 @ 24.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$23 @ 45.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$67	68.0¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	No	$66	66.6¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$26	26.4¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Crypto	No	$14	39.4¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5	15.8¢
Will Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be delayed?	Culture	No	$3	49.1¢

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$67 @ 68.0¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
No$66 @ 66.6¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
Yes$26 @ 26.4¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?Crypto
No$14 @ 39.4¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?Crypto
No$5 @ 15.8¢
Will Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be delayed?Culture
No$3 @ 49.1¢