0x8c0b…f0fb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8c0b637b43ccbd2069b0f789b8439777fdb4f0fb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

41% @ 36.6¢

Brier

0.156

Resolved

2557

Avg size

$92

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	56% (43/77)	+33%	77
Other	44% (32/72)	-20%	72
Sports	38% (6/16)	-74%	16
Geopolitics	56% (9/16)	+6%	16
Culture	71% (10/14)	+17%	14
Tech	33% (4/12)	+101%	12
Economy	75% (3/4)	+54%	4
Crypto	0% (0/2)	—	2
Science	0% (0/1)	—	1

Politics77 bets
Hit rate
56% (43/77)
ROI
+33%
Other72 bets
Hit rate
44% (32/72)
ROI
-20%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
38% (6/16)
ROI
-74%
Geopolitics16 bets
Hit rate
56% (9/16)
ROI
+6%
Culture14 bets
Hit rate
71% (10/14)
ROI
+17%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
+101%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+54%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
—
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
—

Track record

50% hit · 107/214

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$44	43.0¢	Lost
LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner	Team WE	$74	32.4¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$4.7k	58.4¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$2.3k	53.3¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$66	15.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$104	41.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$770	77.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$438	17.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	No	$735	73.5¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	No	$955	47.8¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$147	29.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$243	32.6¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$125	50.0¢	Lost
Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$275	70.7¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$6	2.0¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?	Yes	$44	29.5¢	Lost
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?	No	$249	63.1¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	No	$8	41.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	Yes	$220	37.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$1.1k	85.4¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$1.8k	38.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$483	70.7¢	Won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	No	$32	16.0¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	$197	49.3¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$516	59.8¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$914	26.6¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$3.4k	79.3¢	Won
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	Dplus KIA	$130	52.0¢	Won
Will "Digger" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$11	24.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$177	33.1¢	Lost
Will "Primetime" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$33	40.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$5.0k	84.1¢	Won
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	No	$65	86.1¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$1.6k	58.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$3.2k	40.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$7.7k	47.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$798	48.5¢	Lost
Will "Primetime" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$66	59.2¢	Won
Will "Primetime" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	$7	35.0¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 26m?	Yes	$4	0.9¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$246	74.0¢	Won
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?	No	$4.6k	34.2¢	Lost
LoL: Fuego vs Zeu5 Esports (BO5) - LRN Playoffs	Fuego	$115	57.5¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$144	72.0¢	Lost
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?	No	$83	82.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	$113	15.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$439	87.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$26	7.9¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$269	77.6¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$35	35.0¢	Won

Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$44 @ 43.0¢
LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 WinnerLost
Team WE$74 @ 32.4¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$4.7k @ 58.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$2.3k @ 53.3¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$66 @ 15.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$104 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$770 @ 77.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$438 @ 17.5¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Won
No$735 @ 73.5¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Won
No$955 @ 47.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$147 @ 29.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$243 @ 32.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$125 @ 50.0¢
Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
No$275 @ 70.7¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 2.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?Lost
Yes$44 @ 29.5¢
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?Won
No$249 @ 63.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Won
No$8 @ 41.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Lost
Yes$220 @ 37.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 85.4¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 38.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$483 @ 70.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?Lost
No$32 @ 16.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
No$197 @ 49.3¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$516 @ 59.8¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$914 @ 26.6¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 79.3¢
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 WinnerWon
Dplus KIA$130 @ 52.0¢
Will "Digger" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$11 @ 24.0¢
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$177 @ 33.1¢
Will "Primetime" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$33 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$5.0k @ 84.1¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Won
No$65 @ 86.1¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$1.6k @ 58.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 40.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$7.7k @ 47.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$798 @ 48.5¢
Will "Primetime" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$66 @ 59.2¢
Will "Primetime" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
Yes$7 @ 35.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 26m?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$246 @ 74.0¢
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?Lost
No$4.6k @ 34.2¢
LoL: Fuego vs Zeu5 Esports (BO5) - LRN PlayoffsLost
Fuego$115 @ 57.5¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$144 @ 72.0¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?Won
No$83 @ 82.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Lost
No$113 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$439 @ 87.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 7.9¢
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
No$269 @ 77.6¢
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
Yes$35 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	No	$2.5k	98.0¢
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$2.3k	91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.0k	79.9¢
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Science	No	$1.7k	42.7¢
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.7k	75.8¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 6?	Culture	No	$1.2k	95.9¢
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$1.2k	89.0¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?	Culture	No	$1.2k	88.8¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 60 and 89 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?	Culture	No	$1.1k	87.2¢
Will over 68 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$1.0k	91.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$920	92.0¢
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Science	No	$857	85.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$826	82.0¢
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Science	No	$778	97.3¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Culture	No	$747	74.7¢
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Tech	Yes	$600	24.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$550	55.0¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by fire?	Culture	Yes	$483	65.2¢
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$481	96.3¢
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$428	95.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$427	64.0¢
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$418	93.0¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a vex?	Culture	No	$352	88.0¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?	Culture	No	$307	85.1¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?	Crypto	No	$291	92.4¢
Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	Culture	Yes	$290	42.4¢
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$263	65.9¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$249	34.3¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by a projectile again?	Culture	Yes	$233	93.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	No	$223	67.0¢

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
No$2.5k @ 98.0¢
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$2.3k @ 91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$2.0k @ 79.9¢
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Science
No$1.7k @ 42.7¢
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.7k @ 75.8¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 6?Culture
No$1.2k @ 95.9¢
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
No$1.2k @ 89.0¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?Culture
No$1.2k @ 88.8¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 60 and 89 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Culture
No$1.1k @ 87.2¢
Will over 68 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Politics
No$1.0k @ 91.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$920 @ 92.0¢
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Science
No$857 @ 85.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$826 @ 82.0¢
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Science
No$778 @ 97.3¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?Culture
No$747 @ 74.7¢
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Tech
Yes$600 @ 24.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$550 @ 55.0¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by fire?Culture
Yes$483 @ 65.2¢
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$481 @ 96.3¢
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$428 @ 95.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$427 @ 64.0¢
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$418 @ 93.0¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a vex?Culture
No$352 @ 88.0¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Culture
No$307 @ 85.1¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?Crypto
No$291 @ 92.4¢
Will Drake release a new album by December 31?Culture
Yes$290 @ 42.4¢
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$263 @ 65.9¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$249 @ 34.3¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by a projectile again?Culture
Yes$233 @ 93.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
No$223 @ 67.0¢