0x8bf9…6a86

Specialization by sphere

• Politics27 bets

  Hit rate

  44% (12/27)

  ROI

  +81%

• Sports18 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (9/18)

  ROI

  -5%

• Other11 bets

  Hit rate

  45% (5/11)

  ROI

  -10%

• Tech6 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (4/6)

  ROI

  +6%

• Geopolitics2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
  Yes$6 @ 68.5¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
• Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
  Yes$6 @ 59.5¢
• Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
  9z$1 @ 46.0¢
• Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 1.6¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$3 @ 66.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$39 @ 22.7¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
  No$3 @ 61.3¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 12.2¢
• Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 41.0¢
• Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Lost
  No$1 @ 32.0¢
• Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
  Yes$5 @ 69.4¢
• Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
  No$1 @ 76.5¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 22.8¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
  Yes$9 @ 31.0¢
• Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)Lost
  Legacy$3 @ 62.0¢
• Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
  Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 1.8¢
• Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1Won
  BetBoom Team$1 @ 55.0¢
• Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Lost
  Under$1 @ 14.9¢
• Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
  Yes$4 @ 53.3¢
• Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Lost
  No$1 @ 7.0¢
• Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$13 @ 14.9¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
  Yes$6 @ 67.9¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 71.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
• Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 1.4¢
• Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 2.1¢
• Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Won
  No$7 @ 69.5¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Lost
  No$1 @ 4.1¢
• Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 12.2¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
  No$6 @ 55.4¢
• Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 45.0¢
• Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
• Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil TeichmannLost
  Jil Teichmann$6 @ 10.2¢
• Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles?Won
  No$5 @ 46.0¢
• Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
  Yes$1 @ 90.0¢
• NBA: SGA Award ParlayLost
  Yes$4 @ 14.0¢
• Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$4 @ 68.1¢
• Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
  No$1 @ 80.9¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
  No$1 @ 9.0¢
• Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Lost
  No$1 @ 62.0¢
• Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$4 @ 8.0¢
• Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$4 @ 86.0¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  No$2 @ 33.0¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  Yes$56 @ 69.6¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 5.9¢
• Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$1 @ 37.2¢

Current positions

• Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
  Yes$7 @ 64.0¢
• Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
  Yes$7 @ 15.8¢
• Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
  Yes$6 @ 62.5¢
• Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
  Yes$6 @ 34.3¢
• Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$6 @ 80.3¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
  No$6 @ 76.2¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$6 @ 79.0¢
• Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$6 @ 63.9¢
• Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
  No$6 @ 87.2¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$6 @ 48.3¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Politics
  No$6 @ 75.4¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$6 @ 49.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$6 @ 16.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$5 @ 55.5¢
• Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Politics
  Yes$5 @ 38.6¢
• Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
  Yes$5 @ 49.0¢
• Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?Politics
  No$5 @ 52.1¢
• Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?Tech
  No$4 @ 31.8¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
  No$4 @ 45.8¢
• Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$4 @ 55.0¢
• Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$4 @ 31.1¢
• Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$4 @ 54.0¢
• Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  No$4 @ 94.8¢
• FDA approves Retatrutide this year?Tech
  No$4 @ 77.0¢
• Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
  Yes$4 @ 16.0¢
• Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$4 @ 90.0¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
  Yes$4 @ 75.0¢
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$3 @ 46.7¢
• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  No$3 @ 69.6¢
• Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?Politics
  Yes$3 @ 46.3¢