0x8bf9…6a86

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8bf92bfa584f6a524fa7b9465d777c03f1016a86
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.6pp

ROI

+46%

Win rate

45% @ 35.3¢

Brier

0.147

Resolved

147

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	47% (21/45)	+65%	45
Sports	42% (14/33)	-7%	33
Other	46% (11/24)	-25%	24
Tech	78% (7/9)	+12%	9
Geopolitics	29% (2/7)	-90%	7
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics45 bets
Hit rate
47% (21/45)
ROI
+65%
Sports33 bets
Hit rate
42% (14/33)
ROI
-7%
Other24 bets
Hit rate
46% (11/24)
ROI
-25%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-90%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

46% hit · 55/120

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0034 by December 31, 2026?	No	$4	78.0¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$3	15.8¢	Lost
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	16.2¢	Lost
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$3	46.3¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	8.1¢	Lost
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	5.2¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$3	61.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	72.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?	Yes	$2	13.4¢	Lost
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	No	$1	27.0¢	Lost
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?	Yes	$3	27.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?	Yes	$3	64.0¢	Won
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	46.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by June 30?	No	$1	93.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$6	80.3¢	Won
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	$2	20.7¢	Lost
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$6	59.2¢	Lost
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Lost
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$2	19.6¢	Lost
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$5	49.0¢	Lost
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	98.1¢	Won
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	75.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	68.4¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$0	0.0¢	Won
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$1	3.6¢	Lost
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	97.4¢	Won
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	93.0¢	Won
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?	Yes	$2	23.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$4	39.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$3	68.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?	No	$3	64.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	89.0¢	Won
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	$1	94.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?	No	$5	52.1¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	86.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	16.0¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	86.0¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$3	64.0¢	Won
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?	SpaceX	$2	89.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost

Will Pump.fun reach $0.0034 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 78.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.8¢
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.2¢
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$3 @ 46.3¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.1¢
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.2¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 61.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 72.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.4¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
No$1 @ 27.0¢
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 27.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 64.0¢
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$4 @ 46.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 93.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$6 @ 80.3¢
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$2 @ 20.7¢
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$6 @ 59.2¢
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?Lost
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.6¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$5 @ 49.0¢
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1 @ 98.1¢
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$1 @ 75.0¢
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$6 @ 68.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Won
No$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1 @ 97.4¢
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1 @ 93.0¢
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Won
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$4 @ 39.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$3 @ 68.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?Won
No$3 @ 64.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 89.0¢
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?Won
No$1 @ 94.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?Won
No$5 @ 52.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 86.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 16.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 86.0¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 64.0¢
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?Won
SpaceX$2 @ 89.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1	6.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.4¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.5¢

Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢