0x8bf9…6a86

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8bf92bfa584f6a524fa7b9465d777c03f1016a86
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.6pp

ROI

+46%

Win rate

45% @ 35.3¢

Brier

0.147

Resolved

147

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	47% (14/30)	+77%	30
Sports	47% (9/19)	-7%	19
Other	54% (7/13)	+11%	13
Tech	67% (4/6)	+6%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics30 bets
Hit rate
47% (14/30)
ROI
+77%
Sports19 bets
Hit rate
47% (9/19)
ROI
-7%
Other13 bets
Hit rate
54% (7/13)
ROI
+11%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 34/71

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$6	59.5¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$8	46.6¢	Won
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	9z	$1	46.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$39	22.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$3	61.3¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$5	12.2¢	Lost
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	Yes	$5	41.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	No	$1	32.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$5	69.4¢	Won
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$1	76.5¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$3	22.8¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$9	31.0¢	Won
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)	Legacy	$3	62.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$3	69.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	1.8¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	BetBoom Team	$1	55.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	Under	$1	14.9¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$4	53.3¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$10	78.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?	No	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$13	14.9¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	71.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$3	2.1¢	Lost
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	$7	69.5¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?	No	$1	4.1¢	Lost
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$4	12.2¢	Lost
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$7	45.0¢	Lost
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann	Jil Teichmann	$6	10.2¢	Lost
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles?	No	$5	46.0¢	Won
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$1	90.0¢	Won
NBA: SGA Award Parlay	Yes	$4	14.0¢	Lost
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$4	68.1¢	Won
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$1	80.9¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	$1	62.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$3	64.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	5.9¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	37.2¢	Won
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	B8	$4	53.7¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7?	Yes	$1	15.2¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?	No	$2	47.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	$7	7.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?	Yes	$4	12.9¢	Lost

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$6 @ 59.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$8 @ 46.6¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
9z$1 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$39 @ 22.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$3 @ 61.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.2¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 41.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$1 @ 32.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$5 @ 69.4¢
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 76.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 22.8¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$9 @ 31.0¢
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)Lost
Legacy$3 @ 62.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.8¢
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1Won
BetBoom Team$1 @ 55.0¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Lost
Under$1 @ 14.9¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
Yes$4 @ 53.3¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$10 @ 78.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$13 @ 14.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 71.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.1¢
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Won
No$7 @ 69.5¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Lost
No$1 @ 4.1¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$4 @ 12.2¢
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 45.0¢
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil TeichmannLost
Jil Teichmann$6 @ 10.2¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles?Won
No$5 @ 46.0¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$1 @ 90.0¢
NBA: SGA Award ParlayLost
Yes$4 @ 14.0¢
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$4 @ 68.1¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$1 @ 80.9¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
No$1 @ 9.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Lost
No$1 @ 62.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 64.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.9¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 37.2¢
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2Won
B8$4 @ 53.7¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.2¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?Lost
No$2 @ 47.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Won
No$7 @ 7.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 0.8¢
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?Lost
Yes$4 @ 12.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1	6.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.4¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.5¢

Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢