0x8bac…cb3f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8bace556530cf4ef1bc91e56efa0be429e8ecb3f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+31.1pp

ROI

+30%

Win rate

81% @ 49.8¢

Brier

0.253

Resolved

Avg size

$122

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	80% (4/5)	+49%	5
Other	50% (2/4)	+33%	4
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-29%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	-20%	3
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+69%	1

Politics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+49%
Other4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+33%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-29%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-20%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+69%

Track record

56% hit · 10/18

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	Yes	$150	16.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$115	25.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$86	24.4¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$944	67.4¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$165	11.5¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$5	15.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	No	$102	65.1¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$818	59.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$314	62.8¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	$563	90.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$594	42.4¢	Won
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the South Africa vs Canada FIFA World Cup Match?	No	$20	73.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	49.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$260	81.6¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	$143	71.5¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	$53	26.6¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?	No	$25	50.0¢	Won
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	No	$1.5k	87.0¢	Won

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Lost
Yes$150 @ 16.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$115 @ 25.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$86 @ 24.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$944 @ 67.4¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$165 @ 11.5¢
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$5 @ 15.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?Won
No$102 @ 65.1¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$818 @ 59.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$314 @ 62.8¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Won
No$563 @ 90.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$594 @ 42.4¢
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the South Africa vs Canada FIFA World Cup Match?Lost
No$20 @ 73.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 49.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$260 @ 81.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Won
No$143 @ 71.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Lost
Yes$53 @ 26.6¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?Won
No$25 @ 50.0¢
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?Won
No$1.5k @ 87.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$1.2k	83.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$550	91.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$336	84.0¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$303	96.3¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$224	94.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$141	62.7¢
Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on March 13, 2027?	—	Yes	$22	56.0¢
Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on November 13, 2026?	—	No	$8	87.0¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$1.2k @ 83.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$550 @ 91.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$336 @ 84.0¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto
No$303 @ 96.3¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$224 @ 94.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$141 @ 62.7¢
Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on March 13, 2027?—
Yes$22 @ 56.0¢
Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on November 13, 2026?—
No$8 @ 87.0¢