← Smart money
0x8b1c…d8a9
ProfitableEdge
+42.7pp
ROI
+99%
Win rate
87% @ 44.5¢
Brier
0.262
Resolved
612
Avg size
$7
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 75% (3/4) | +110% | 4 |
| Sports | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- +110%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
60% hit · 3/5| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | $243 | 23.8¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $3.8k | 47.2¢ | Won |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $28 | 70.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $17 | 19.9¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | $17 | 85.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$243 @ 23.8¢
- Yes$3.8k @ 47.2¢
- Yes$28 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$17 @ 19.9¢
- No$17 @ 85.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Politics | Yes | $42 | 30.1¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Politics | No | $19 | 50.0¢ |
- Yes$42 @ 30.1¢
- No$19 @ 50.0¢