0x8b1c…d8a9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8b1cd879ca6250cd15f98653c950c25bedd6d8a9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.8pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

58% @ 44.1¢

Brier

0.213

Resolved

1638

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (14/30)	-2%	30
Politics	48% (11/23)	+58%	23
Sports	33% (5/15)	-80%	15
Geopolitics	40% (4/10)	-15%	10
Science	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Tech	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Culture	33% (1/3)	-16%	3
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other30 bets
Hit rate
47% (14/30)
ROI
-2%
Politics23 bets
Hit rate
48% (11/23)
ROI
+58%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
33% (5/15)
ROI
-80%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
-15%
Science6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-16%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 35/93

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.25B by October 31?	No	$9	44.0¢	Lost
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 2, 2026?	No	$4	48.0¢	Lost
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 2, 2026?	Yes	$6	46.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31?	Yes	$14	69.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 18?	Yes	$6	18.0¢	Lost
Henan FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Under	$20	28.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 15?	No	$4	36.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 15?	Yes	$5	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 15?	Yes	$3	22.0¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?	No	$19	70.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	No	$10	51.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	$12	29.0¢	Lost
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on October 14?	Up	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	No	$1	40.0¢	Lost
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$15	63.1¢	Won
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 3?	Yes	$9	47.0¢	Lost
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260-$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?	Yes	$8	11.7¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	$5	54.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$565	67.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$899	33.7¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: OG vs Sangal - Map 1 Winner	Sangal	$4	49.0¢	Won
Fight to Go the Distance?	No	$8	41.0¢	Won
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	$13	86.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?	Yes	$8	0.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$873	47.7¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$243	23.8¢	Lost
Sarasota: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Clement Tabur	Clement Tabur	$9	42.1¢	Lost
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	$8	40.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Mena Warriors vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs	Dawn Bulls	$15	58.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$17	17.3¢	Lost
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	No	$14	68.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	$284	53.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	$482	33.5¢	Lost
Fight to Go the Distance?	No	$6	64.0¢	Lost
Fight to Go the Distance?	Yes	$5	50.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$340 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?	No	$26	63.5¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	$21	51.8¢	Lost
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$7	30.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$105	39.1¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 8?	Yes	$2	44.0¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	$4	39.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$319	52.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4.9k	47.7¢	Won
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Paula Badosa vs Lilli Tagger	Paula Badosa	$1	6.9¢	Lost
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	LGD Gaming	$15	38.0¢	Lost
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	T1	$12	37.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner	BakS eSports	$2	48.0¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	$8	38.0¢	Lost
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Katie Volynets vs Donna Vekic	Donna Vekic	$18	89.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?	Yes	$121	64.3¢	Lost

Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.25B by October 31?Lost
No$9 @ 44.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 2, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 48.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 2, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 46.0¢
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 18?Lost
Yes$6 @ 18.0¢
Henan FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersLost
Under$20 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 15?Lost
No$4 @ 36.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?Lost
No$19 @ 70.0¢
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Lost
No$10 @ 51.0¢
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Lost
No$12 @ 29.0¢
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on October 14?Lost
Up$2 @ 4.0¢
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?Lost
No$1 @ 40.0¢
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?Won
Yes$15 @ 63.1¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 3?Lost
Yes$9 @ 47.0¢
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260-$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?Won
Yes$8 @ 11.7¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Won
Under$5 @ 54.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$565 @ 67.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$899 @ 33.7¢
Counter-Strike: OG vs Sangal - Map 1 WinnerWon
Sangal$4 @ 49.0¢
Fight to Go the Distance?Won
No$8 @ 41.0¢
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?Won
Yes$13 @ 86.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$873 @ 47.7¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$243 @ 23.8¢
Sarasota: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Clement TaburLost
Clement Tabur$9 @ 42.1¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de MinaurWon
Alex de Minaur$8 @ 40.0¢
Dota 2: Mena Warriors vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Open Qualifier 2 PlayoffsWon
Dawn Bulls$15 @ 58.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.3¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Lost
No$14 @ 68.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Won
No$284 @ 53.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Lost
Yes$482 @ 33.5¢
Fight to Go the Distance?Lost
No$6 @ 64.0¢
Fight to Go the Distance?Won
Yes$5 @ 50.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$340 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?Won
No$26 @ 63.5¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$21 @ 51.8¢
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Lost
Yes$7 @ 30.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$105 @ 39.1¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 8?Won
Yes$2 @ 44.0¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$4 @ 39.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$319 @ 52.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$4.9k @ 47.7¢
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Paula Badosa vs Lilli TaggerLost
Paula Badosa$1 @ 6.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsLost
LGD Gaming$15 @ 38.0¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions PlayoffsLost
T1$12 @ 37.0¢
Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 WinnerWon
BakS eSports$2 @ 48.0¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$8 @ 38.0¢
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Katie Volynets vs Donna VekicWon
Donna Vekic$18 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?Lost
Yes$121 @ 64.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Palmer Luckey attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	28.3¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Geopolitics	No	$13	66.0¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$12	31.0¢
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$11	53.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?	Geopolitics	No	$11	53.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Economy	No	$10	24.5¢
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	29.0¢
Will Jahmyr Gibbs finish as a top-5 FLEX in the 2026-27 NFL season?	Sports	No	$5	25.0¢
Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October?	Tech	No	$5	24.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	17.9¢
Will BetBoom Team qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?	Sports	No	$1	27.0¢
Will Natus Vincere qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?	Sports	No	$0	8.0¢

Will Palmer Luckey attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 28.3¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?Geopolitics
No$13 @ 66.0¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$12 @ 31.0¢
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?Politics
Yes$11 @ 53.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?Geopolitics
No$11 @ 53.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Economy
No$10 @ 24.5¢
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by October 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 29.0¢
Will Jahmyr Gibbs finish as a top-5 FLEX in the 2026-27 NFL season?Sports
No$5 @ 25.0¢
Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October?Tech
No$5 @ 24.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 17.9¢
Will BetBoom Team qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?Sports
No$1 @ 27.0¢
Will Natus Vincere qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?Sports
No$0 @ 8.0¢