0x8a7b…782f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8a7b576b7a53ef54876f9eca18bcd84f12d8782f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.8pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

13% @ 8.9¢

Brier

0.035

Resolved

1734

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	23% (21/93)	-10%	93
Politics	43% (30/70)	-8%	70
Economy	46% (18/39)	+20%	39
Geopolitics	52% (13/25)	+7%	25
Tech	0% (0/19)	-100%	19
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+22%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+5%	1

Other93 bets
Hit rate
23% (21/93)
ROI
-10%
Politics70 bets
Hit rate
43% (30/70)
ROI
-8%
Economy39 bets
Hit rate
46% (18/39)
ROI
+20%
Geopolitics25 bets
Hit rate
52% (13/25)
ROI
+7%
Tech19 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/19)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+22%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+5%

Track record

34% hit · 84/249

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?	No	$10	51.0¢	Won
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$16	0.2¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$618	79.8¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.00% (LOW) in April?	No	$166	83.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$37	76.5¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$5	12.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$16	40.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	$31	0.9¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Moonshot have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$10	0.2¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the US lose more than 150k jobs in March?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?	No	$1	86.0¢	Won
US bank failure by June 30?	No	$52	44.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$70	41.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$440	52.5¢	Won
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?	Yes	$25	33.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$323	82.1¢	Won
Trump out as President by August 31?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?	Yes	$14	6.1¢	Lost
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	0.2¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$405	81.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$25	0.6¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$59	0.7¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?	No	$96	87.6¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$34	6.0¢	Lost
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$13	0.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$609	68.9¢	Won
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$146	73.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$14	68.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$12	60.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost

Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?Won
No$10 @ 51.0¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.2¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$618 @ 79.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.00% (LOW) in April?Won
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$37 @ 76.5¢
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.0¢
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will DeepSeek have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 40.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?Lost
Yes$31 @ 0.9¢
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Moonshot have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the US lose more than 150k jobs in March?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?Won
No$1 @ 86.0¢
US bank failure by June 30?Won
No$52 @ 44.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$70 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$440 @ 52.5¢
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?Won
Yes$25 @ 33.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Won
Yes$323 @ 82.1¢
Trump out as President by August 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?Lost
Yes$14 @ 6.1¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.2¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$405 @ 81.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$25 @ 0.6¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$59 @ 0.7¢
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?Won
No$96 @ 87.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Lost
Yes$34 @ 6.0¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$609 @ 68.9¢
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$146 @ 73.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 68.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 60.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Other	Yes	$1.4k	89.2¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Economy	No	$1.2k	82.3¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$1.0k	33.1¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$954	95.4¢
Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$937	85.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$935	93.5¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$900	90.0¢
ECB rate cut in 2026?	Economy	No	$848	91.4¢
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?	Economy	No	$818	75.8¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$558	93.0¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Politics	Yes	$481	96.2¢
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?	Crypto	No	$452	90.1¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?	Politics	No	$386	84.0¢
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$385	92.8¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$364	91.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$334	96.7¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$279	93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$258	86.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Politics	No	$246	86.0¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$227	33.0¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	Politics	No	$216	91.7¢
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?	Politics	No	$195	88.9¢
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	Crypto	No	$188	90.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$186	93.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$180	90.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	Politics	No	$176	88.0¢
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$171	93.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.2% before 2027?	Politics	No	$165	89.0¢
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?	Tech	No	$162	82.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$117	89.0¢

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
Yes$1.4k @ 89.2¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?Economy
No$1.2k @ 82.3¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$1.0k @ 33.1¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$954 @ 95.4¢
Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$937 @ 85.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$935 @ 93.5¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$900 @ 90.0¢
ECB rate cut in 2026?Economy
No$848 @ 91.4¢
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?Economy
No$818 @ 75.8¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$558 @ 93.0¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Politics
Yes$481 @ 96.2¢
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?Crypto
No$452 @ 90.1¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?Politics
No$386 @ 84.0¢
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?Economy
No$385 @ 92.8¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$364 @ 91.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$334 @ 96.7¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
No$279 @ 93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$258 @ 86.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Politics
No$246 @ 86.0¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$227 @ 33.0¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?Politics
No$216 @ 91.7¢
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?Politics
No$195 @ 88.9¢
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?Crypto
No$188 @ 90.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?Other
No$186 @ 93.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?Other
No$180 @ 90.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?Politics
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?Geopolitics
No$171 @ 93.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.2% before 2027?Politics
No$165 @ 89.0¢
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?Tech
No$162 @ 82.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?Other
No$117 @ 89.0¢