0x8a65…a3de

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8a658e5863d109b9b1c34a22440b6fd0d7f3a3de
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+33.6pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

93% @ 59.3¢

Brier

0.180

Resolved

112

Avg size

$67

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	71% (10/14)	+46%	14
Other	90% (9/10)	+32%	10
Sports	60% (3/5)	-16%	5
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+36%	2

Politics14 bets
Hit rate
71% (10/14)
ROI
+46%
Other10 bets
Hit rate
90% (9/10)
ROI
+32%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-16%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+36%

Track record

77% hit · 24/31

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$252	70.6¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$352	71.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$126	59.5¢	Won
Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?	No	$826	73.2¢	Won
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$145	14.0¢	Lost
LoL: Fuego vs Zeu5 Esports (BO5) - LRN Playoffs	Zeu5 Esports	$103	76.0¢	Won
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	No	$8	40.0¢	Lost
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	Yes	$425	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$206	57.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$788	53.3¢	Won
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	$137	68.0¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$290	60.0¢	Won
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins	Boston Red Sox	$50	49.0¢	Won
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?	Yes	$692	73.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	27.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$301	67.0¢	Won
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	No	$299	59.0¢	Lost
Augsburg: Facundo Mena vs Max Hans Rehberg	Facundo Mena	$354	88.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?	Yes	$358	79.7¢	Won
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	No	$287	71.0¢	Won
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$318	79.5¢	Won
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$18	41.0¢	Lost
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	Chicago Cubs	$206	41.5¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$119	39.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$169	28.1¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Yes	$19	0.8¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$180	72.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	No	$62	58.5¢	Won
Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$214	80.2¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	$12	57.0¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	$169	84.0¢	Lost

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$252 @ 70.6¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$352 @ 71.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$126 @ 59.5¢
Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?Won
No$826 @ 73.2¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
Yes$145 @ 14.0¢
LoL: Fuego vs Zeu5 Esports (BO5) - LRN PlayoffsWon
Zeu5 Esports$103 @ 76.0¢
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?Lost
No$8 @ 40.0¢
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?Won
Yes$425 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$206 @ 57.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$788 @ 53.3¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?Won
Yes$137 @ 68.0¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
No$290 @ 60.0¢
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsWon
Boston Red Sox$50 @ 49.0¢
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?Won
Yes$692 @ 73.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 27.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$301 @ 67.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?Lost
No$299 @ 59.0¢
Augsburg: Facundo Mena vs Max Hans RehbergWon
Facundo Mena$354 @ 88.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?Won
Yes$358 @ 79.7¢
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
No$287 @ 71.0¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$318 @ 79.5¢
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$18 @ 41.0¢
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLost
Chicago Cubs$206 @ 41.5¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?Won
Yes$119 @ 39.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$169 @ 28.1¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.8¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?Won
Yes$180 @ 72.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?Won
No$62 @ 58.5¢
Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$214 @ 80.2¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 57.0¢
Will England win on 2026-06-23?Lost
Yes$169 @ 84.0¢

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