0x8a4c…2c4c

Specialization by sphere

• Other51 bets

  Hit rate

  57% (29/51)

  ROI

  +104%

• Politics36 bets

  Hit rate

  56% (20/36)

  ROI

  +12%

• Crypto9 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (3/9)

  ROI

  -6%

• Geopolitics8 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (6/8)

  ROI

  +45%

• Economy7 bets

  Hit rate

  57% (4/7)

  ROI

  +31%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
  No$529 @ 83.8¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$239 @ 40.8¢
• Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$3 @ 44.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?Won
  No$250 @ 81.9¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$500 @ 76.7¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
  Yes$43 @ 42.9¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$408 @ 71.8¢
• JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$200 @ 7.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$270 @ 0.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$300 @ 85.3¢
• Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$14 @ 21.0¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
  No$60 @ 3.8¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
  No$71 @ 71.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$200 @ 84.8¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
  Yes$106 @ 3.2¢
• US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$50 @ 0.2¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 6.7¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
  Yes$143 @ 18.1¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
  No$277 @ 79.1¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$5.0k @ 69.3¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$250 @ 68.5¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
  Yes$390 @ 39.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
  Yes$200 @ 18.0¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
  No$290 @ 45.4¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Lost
  Yes$103 @ 15.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$108 @ 43.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
  No$450 @ 69.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
  Yes$310 @ 4.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$1.5k @ 48.0¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
  Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?Won
  No$1.2k @ 75.2¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
  Yes$95 @ 19.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Lost
  No$317 @ 44.4¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
  Yes$60 @ 61.8¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$200 @ 65.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
  No$570 @ 81.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$1.5k @ 62.1¢
• Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?Won
  No$811 @ 73.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
  No$90 @ 68.2¢
• US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Won
  Yes$590 @ 39.3¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Won
  No$19 @ 15.9¢
• Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29?Won
  No$154 @ 53.6¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$50 @ 34.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 6.8¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Won
  Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 89.0¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Won
  No$200 @ 88.0¢
• Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
  No$1.2k @ 44.7¢
• Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
  Yes$2.4k @ 39.8¢

Current positions

• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
  No$3.2k @ 81.3¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
  No$1.5k @ 88.0¢
• Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
  Yes$1.2k @ 13.6¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  No$1000 @ 70.0¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  No$1000 @ 51.0¢
• Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
  Yes$939 @ 25.6¢
• New pandemic before 2028?Other
  No$500 @ 78.6¢
• Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
  No$500 @ 90.4¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$500 @ 78.0¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$480 @ 55.9¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$410 @ 73.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
  No$400 @ 32.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  Yes$290 @ 11.9¢
• Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$209 @ 9.9¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
  No$205 @ 80.5¢
• Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?Geopolitics
  No$200 @ 89.7¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
  No$200 @ 48.0¢
• Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Other
  Yes$200 @ 8.8¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Politics
  No$100 @ 12.2¢
• Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Tech
  Yes$55 @ 17.5¢
• 5kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
  Yes$40 @ 32.3¢
• ECB rate cut in 2026?Economy
  Yes$36 @ 15.9¢
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$35 @ 26.8¢
• Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$20 @ 4.8¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$20 @ 4.8¢
• Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026?Other
  Yes$19 @ 63.0¢