0x8a21…fec3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8a21383bea53b7a7ef20025158a9f6b368a0fec3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+47%

Win rate

6% @ 2.2¢

Brier

0.037

Resolved

1392

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	14% (7/49)	-10%	49
Tech	45% (9/20)	+199%	20
Politics	0% (0/13)	-100%	13
Crypto	20% (1/5)	-81%	5
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other49 bets
Hit rate
14% (7/49)
ROI
-10%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
45% (9/20)
ROI
+199%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/13)
ROI
-100%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-81%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

19% hit · 17/89

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Danish People’s Party win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$64	2.4¢	Lost
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?	Yes	$44	0.9¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	$78	39.5¢	Won
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?	Yes	$11	22.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for 15 seconds or more on November 18 2025?	Yes	$9	8.8¢	Lost
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Lost
Will Workers’ Party of Bangladesh win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16?	Yes	$12	0.1¢	Lost
Will Navan Inc IPO closing market capitalization be between 5 billion and 6 billion?	Yes	$25	0.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?	Yes	$12	4.6¢	Lost
Will Union Party win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?	Yes	$12	10.0¢	Lost
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Mamdani removes Jessica Tisch as NYC Police Commissioner by March 31?	Yes	$8	4.0¢	Lost
Amouranth divorced by June 30?	Yes	$13	12.0¢	Lost
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?	Yes	$17	8.5¢	Lost
Will Felix Protocol launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$16	7.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?	Yes	$25	0.1¢	Lost
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$26	3.8¢	Lost
Will The Alternative win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	Yes	$19	7.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	Yes	$10	13.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$27	4.9¢	Won
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will a transgender women athlete compete at the 2026 Winter Games?	Yes	$28	2.7¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.0% before 2027?	No	$38	0.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	Yes	$32	79.5¢	Won
Will Moderates win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Conservative People’s Party win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?	Yes	$11	72.5¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?	Yes	$13	0.1¢	Lost
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31?	Yes	$58	29.3¢	Won
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	Yes	$12	3.1¢	Lost
Will Ventuals launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	25.0¢	Won
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?	Yes	$13	5.1¢	Lost
Will Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	$12	60.0¢	Won
Will Islami Andolan Bangladesh win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary Election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	$5	3.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	Yes	$9	3.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	$15	76.0¢	Won
Will Danish Social Liberal Party win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	No	$30	16.0¢	Lost
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31?	Yes	$46	30.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost

Will Danish People’s Party win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Base launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$64 @ 2.4¢
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?Lost
Yes$44 @ 0.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Won
Yes$78 @ 39.5¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Won
Yes$11 @ 22.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for 15 seconds or more on November 18 2025?Lost
Yes$9 @ 8.8¢
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Will Workers’ Party of Bangladesh win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.1¢
Will Navan Inc IPO closing market capitalization be between 5 billion and 6 billion?Lost
Yes$25 @ 0.1¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 4.6¢
Will Union Party win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 10.0¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Mamdani removes Jessica Tisch as NYC Police Commissioner by March 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.0¢
Amouranth divorced by June 30? Lost
Yes$13 @ 12.0¢
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?Lost
Yes$17 @ 8.5¢
Will Felix Protocol launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$16 @ 7.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?Lost
Yes$25 @ 0.1¢
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 3.8¢
Will The Alternative win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?Lost
Yes$19 @ 7.4¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 13.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$27 @ 4.9¢
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will a transgender women athlete compete at the 2026 Winter Games?Lost
Yes$28 @ 2.7¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.0% before 2027?Lost
No$38 @ 0.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?Won
Yes$32 @ 79.5¢
Will Moderates win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Conservative People’s Party win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 72.5¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.1¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31?Won
Yes$58 @ 29.3¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.1¢
Will Ventuals launch a token by September 30 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?Lost
Yes$13 @ 5.1¢
Will Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?Won
No$12 @ 60.0¢
Will Islami Andolan Bangladesh win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary Election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 76.0¢
Will Danish Social Liberal Party win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Lost
No$30 @ 16.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31?Won
Yes$46 @ 30.0¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$17	11.2¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$16	10.3¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$14	7.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$13	8.9¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$13	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$13	50.0¢
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$8	8.3¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$5	5.1¢

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?Other
Yes$17 @ 11.2¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?Other
Yes$16 @ 10.3¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?Tech
Yes$14 @ 7.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?Tech
Yes$13 @ 8.9¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$13 @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$13 @ 50.0¢
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$8 @ 8.3¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?Other
Yes$5 @ 5.1¢