0x8a14…b0b5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8a1480dad6a335b8b527731bee0e14e7c0bfb0b5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.7pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

47% @ 38.4¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

174

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	31% (11/35)	-9%	35
Other	39% (13/33)	+56%	33
Tech	100% (2/2)	+109%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+361%	1

Politics35 bets
Hit rate
31% (11/35)
ROI
-9%
Other33 bets
Hit rate
39% (13/33)
ROI
+56%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+109%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+361%

Track record

36% hit · 27/75

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	No	$1	72.0¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	4.8¢	Lost
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	No	$1	16.9¢	Won
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	Yes	$2	69.8¢	Lost
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	$1	76.0¢	Won
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$1	28.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	27.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$4	6.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Yes	$1	22.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$4	49.4¢	Lost
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$6	21.7¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$1	6.1¢	Lost
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	No	$5	80.9¢	Won
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$5	18.5¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$10	14.0¢	Won
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$1	83.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$10	45.0¢	Won
Will "Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3" win Best Isekai Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$1	89.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?	Yes	$3	33.2¢	Lost
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$24	77.2¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	Yes	$1	9.2¢	Lost
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?	Yes	$5	6.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Won
Megaquake by June 30?	Yes	$2	28.0¢	Lost
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$3	59.5¢	Won
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	$2	26.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	$4	13.0¢	Lost
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	No	$2	88.3¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	47.9¢	Lost
Will "Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$2	25.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$3	11.5¢	Lost
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02?	No	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02?	Yes	$2	2.5¢	Lost
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$2	79.5¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$2	86.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.7¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Won
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?	Yes	$1	75.0¢	Won

Weed rescheduled by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 72.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 4.8¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Won
No$1 @ 16.9¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Lost
Yes$2 @ 69.8¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Won
No$1 @ 76.0¢
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
Yes$1 @ 28.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 27.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.5¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 22.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 49.4¢
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?Won
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 21.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.1¢
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?Won
No$5 @ 80.9¢
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$5 @ 18.5¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$10 @ 14.0¢
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Won
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$10 @ 45.0¢
Will "Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3" win Best Isekai Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Won
Yes$1 @ 89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 33.2¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$24 @ 77.2¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.2¢
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Megaquake by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$3 @ 59.5¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Lost
No$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
No$2 @ 26.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.0¢
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?Won
No$2 @ 88.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 47.9¢
Will "Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Lost
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.5¢
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02?Lost
No$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.5¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 79.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 86.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 75.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$18	71.5¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	45.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$7	22.5¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$4	67.3¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Politics	No	$3	91.7¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	87.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$2	61.5¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$2	96.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	23.5¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Politics	Yes	$2	7.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	20.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	32.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	32.0¢
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	50.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	25.0¢
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	97.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	54.0¢
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1	95.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1	78.0¢
X banned in any European country by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	60.0¢
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?	Politics	Yes	$1	98.8¢
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1	99.2¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$1	84.0¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Politics	Yes	$1	87.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Politics	Yes	$1	79.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1	85.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	61.0¢
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	58.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	69.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$1	69.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$18 @ 71.5¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 45.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$7 @ 22.5¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$4 @ 67.3¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Politics
No$3 @ 91.7¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 87.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 61.5¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$2 @ 96.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 23.5¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Politics
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 50.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 97.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 95.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 78.0¢
X banned in any European country by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 60.0¢
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?Politics
Yes$1 @ 98.8¢
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 99.2¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$1 @ 84.0¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 87.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
Yes$1 @ 79.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 69.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?Culture
Yes$1 @ 69.0¢