0x8920…bdb2

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other121 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (71/121)

  ROI

  +27%

• Politics31 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (15/31)

  ROI

  +20%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  17% (1/6)

  ROI

  -54%

• Economy2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  -41%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +77%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Won
  Yes$5 @ 9.6¢
• Israel closes its airspace by May 31?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
• Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$1 @ 65.6¢
• Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
  No$0 @ 92.2¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: Israel EditionWon
  No$460 @ 45.1¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: AI EditionLost
  No$266 @ 39.0¢
• Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?Lost
  Yes$84 @ 13.8¢
• Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
  No$56 @ 51.2¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
  Yes$1.9k @ 56.8¢
• U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?Won
  No$240 @ 54.5¢
• US bank failure by March 31?Won
  Yes$29 @ 28.6¢
• US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
  No$1.3k @ 36.7¢
• Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Won
  No$39 @ 77.6¢
• Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$262 @ 72.8¢
• Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?Lost
  Yes$64 @ 43.1¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$106 @ 35.5¢
• Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Lost
  No$5 @ 10.0¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
  Yes$2.0k @ 75.3¢
• North Korea missile launch by January 31?Won
  Yes$12 @ 60.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?Won
  Yes$781 @ 62.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
  Yes$307 @ 39.9¢
• Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?Lost
  No$55 @ 27.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$21 @ 71.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 28.0¢
• US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?Lost
  Yes$35 @ 11.5¢
• Will Democrats win five elections in Nov?Lost
  No$7 @ 13.0¢
• Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$768 @ 53.9¢
• Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by August 31?Lost
  No$20 @ 9.0¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
  Yes$13 @ 25.3¢
• Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?Lost
  No$55 @ 25.1¢
• Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?Lost
  No$299 @ 32.1¢
• Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
  No$764 @ 53.4¢
• Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$803 @ 56.9¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by September 22?Won
  No$31 @ 83.0¢
• Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?Won
  Yes$88 @ 73.2¢
• Jimmy Kimmel hosts an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" by October 15?Won
  Yes$91 @ 20.0¢
• U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?Won
  Yes$232 @ 52.8¢
• US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Won
  No$8 @ 78.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
  No$85 @ 45.6¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
  Yes$789 @ 41.5¢
• Iran leadership change by May 31?Lost
  Yes$126 @ 16.0¢
• French election called by December 31?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 44.0¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$365 @ 60.8¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
  No$386 @ 23.0¢
• Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
  No$6 @ 58.0¢
• Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?Won
  Yes$150 @ 78.6¢
• Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 16.3¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$388 @ 66.4¢
• Trump's Christmas Wishlist ParlayWon
  No$822 @ 89.3¢
• Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?Lost
  No$10 @ 29.0¢

Current positions

• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?—
  No$162 @ 54.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Politics
  No$46 @ 4.4¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?—
  Yes$20 @ 67.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Politics
  Yes$17 @ 1.8¢
• Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Politics
  Yes$17 @ 2.8¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?—
  No$12 @ 41.0¢
• Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?—
  No$9 @ 44.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?—
  No$5 @ 28.7¢
• Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Politics
  Yes$5 @ 9.6¢
• US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?—
  No$4 @ 68.9¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?—
  Yes$4 @ 60.4¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30?Politics
  Yes$4 @ 19.0¢
• Israel closes its airspace by May 24?—
  Yes$3 @ 5.4¢
• XRP all time high by September 30, 2026?Crypto
  No$3 @ 86.0¢
• Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?—
  No$3 @ 82.3¢
• US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?—
  Yes$3 @ 42.1¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$3 @ 66.4¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Geopolitics
  Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
• Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?—
  Yes$2 @ 93.8¢
• Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$2 @ 9.6¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics
  No$2 @ 65.1¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  No$1 @ 51.9¢
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?—
  No$1 @ 70.0¢
• Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?—
  Yes$1 @ 40.5¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?—
  Yes$1 @ 67.1¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?—
  No$1 @ 11.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?—
  No$1 @ 8.1¢
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?—
  Yes$1 @ 52.4¢
• Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?—
  Yes$1 @ 90.9¢