0x8797…bbbe

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x879752bca887bc247ba883a52bc45e9c6be6bbbe
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.9pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

69% @ 53.2¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

659

Avg size

$200

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	63% (31/49)	-10%	49
Other	40% (17/42)	+17%	42
Geopolitics	100% (5/5)	+72%	5
Tech	100% (2/2)	+53%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+333%	1

Politics49 bets
Hit rate
63% (31/49)
ROI
-10%
Other42 bets
Hit rate
40% (17/42)
ROI
+17%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+72%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+53%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+333%

Track record

56% hit · 56/100

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	No	$91	24.2¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$241	24.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$447	53.0¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$125	8.3¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$29	10.0¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?	No	$39	12.6¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?	Yes	$108	69.0¢	Won
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?	Yes	$9	28.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$218	25.1¢	Lost
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	No	$35	76.3¢	Won
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	No	$22	76.8¢	Won
Will Calvin Lee advance from the CA-34 primary election?	No	$21	52.5¢	Won
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	No	$39	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?	Yes	$25	71.0¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	Yes	$12	3.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$20.0k	51.0¢	Won
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	No	$628	21.5¢	Lost
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%?	No	$218	87.0¢	Won
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election?	No	$755	86.1¢	Won
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?	Yes	$11	54.0¢	Won
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$553	84.0¢	Won
Will Tom Willis be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	No	$50	72.3¢	Won
Will Tom Willis be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Yes	$49	71.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$1.7k	82.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$11.0k	48.2¢	Won
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?	No	$640	79.8¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Yes	$35	7.0¢	Won
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?	No	$65	85.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	No	$291	20.5¢	Lost
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?	Yes	$306	26.1¢	Lost
Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Yes	$84	67.0¢	Won
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	No	$1.3k	56.7¢	Won
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	Yes	$259	66.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$7.4k	86.2¢	Won
Will Wilton Simpson be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	$45	85.9¢	Won
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	$559	84.8¢	Lost
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$204	78.8¢	Won
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?	No	$274	75.0¢	Won
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?	No	$127	70.4¢	Lost
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$109	70.0¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$1.7k	84.0¢	Won
Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	$1.7k	41.8¢	Lost
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	No	$36	81.2¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?	No	$691	87.8¢	Won
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?	Yes	$131	73.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?	Yes	$6	14.0¢	Lost
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?	Yes	$71	46.7¢	Won
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$107	24.0¢	Lost
Will Yuh-Line Niou be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?	No	$37	83.0¢	Won
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?	Yes	$335	64.6¢	Lost

Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Lost
No$91 @ 24.2¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
No$241 @ 24.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$447 @ 53.0¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$125 @ 8.3¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$29 @ 10.0¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Lost
No$39 @ 12.6¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Won
Yes$108 @ 69.0¢
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?Won
Yes$9 @ 28.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$218 @ 25.1¢
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Won
No$35 @ 76.3¢
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Won
No$22 @ 76.8¢
Will Calvin Lee advance from the CA-34 primary election?Won
No$21 @ 52.5¢
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?Lost
No$39 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 71.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$20.0k @ 51.0¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Lost
No$628 @ 21.5¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%?Won
No$218 @ 87.0¢
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election?Won
No$755 @ 86.1¢
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?Won
Yes$11 @ 54.0¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$553 @ 84.0¢
Will Tom Willis be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?Won
No$50 @ 72.3¢
Will Tom Willis be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?Lost
Yes$49 @ 71.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$1.7k @ 82.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$11.0k @ 48.2¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?Won
No$640 @ 79.8¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Won
Yes$35 @ 7.0¢
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$65 @ 85.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Lost
No$291 @ 20.5¢
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?Lost
Yes$306 @ 26.1¢
Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?Won
Yes$84 @ 67.0¢
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 56.7¢
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?Lost
Yes$259 @ 66.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$7.4k @ 86.2¢
Will Wilton Simpson be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Won
No$45 @ 85.9¢
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Lost
Yes$559 @ 84.8¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$204 @ 78.8¢
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?Won
No$274 @ 75.0¢
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?Lost
No$127 @ 70.4¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
No$109 @ 70.0¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 84.0¢
Kash Patel out by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 41.8¢
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?Won
No$36 @ 81.2¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?Won
No$691 @ 87.8¢
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?Won
Yes$131 @ 73.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?Lost
Yes$6 @ 14.0¢
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?Won
Yes$71 @ 46.7¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$107 @ 24.0¢
Will Yuh-Line Niou be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?Won
No$37 @ 83.0¢
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?Lost
Yes$335 @ 64.6¢

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