0x8797…bbbe

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x879752bca887bc247ba883a52bc45e9c6be6bbbe
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.3pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

44% @ 36.9¢

Brier

0.175

Resolved

2543

Avg size

$116

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (163/427)	+3%	427
Politics	55% (53/97)	+10%	97
Geopolitics	100% (5/5)	+72%	5
Tech	100% (2/2)	+53%	2
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+333%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+68%	1

Other427 bets
Hit rate
38% (163/427)
ROI
+3%
Politics97 bets
Hit rate
55% (53/97)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+72%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+53%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+333%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+68%

Track record

42% hit · 225/535

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be no OpenAI Astra model release by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$300	74.5¢	Lost
Will any state ban or pause police use of Flock cameras by December 31?	No	$465	74.6¢	Lost
Will CDU win at least 26% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$14	9.0¢	Lost
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6?	Yes	$7	1.4¢	Lost
Will "Tony" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$12	81.5¢	Lost
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	$5	0.4¢	Lost
Will Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will "Pluribus" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Leavitt say "Alien" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	$65	19.8¢	Lost
Will "Pluribus" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	$60	4.4¢	Lost
Will Leavitt say "Illegal" or "Illegals" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	$49	10.4¢	Lost
Will "The Pitt" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	$12	5.9¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?	Yes	$142	7.5¢	Lost
Will 240 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?	Yes	$9	6.1¢	Lost
Will Alexander Hoffmann be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	$311	53.5¢	Lost
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 5 and 10 minutes long?	Yes	$10	7.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be less than 5 minutes long?	Yes	$7	4.7¢	Lost
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 10 and 15 minutes long?	Yes	$11	7.8¢	Lost
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 15 and 20 minutes long?	Yes	$38	26.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31?	No	$94	15.5¢	Lost
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?	Yes	$7	15.0¢	Lost
Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?	No	$1.3k	84.5¢	Lost
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for LA Galaxy next?	Yes	$3	3.4¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15?	Yes	$10	37.0¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	Yes	$217	20.0¢	Lost
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Yes	$685	67.5¢	Lost
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$29	18.7¢	Lost
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?	Yes	$81	33.5¢	Lost
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$2	0.9¢	Lost
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$77	12.2¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	$2.0k	73.6¢	Lost
Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	$545	30.5¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?	Yes	$315	82.0¢	Lost
Will Democrats win 9 or more House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?	No	$284	83.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?	Yes	$362	83.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	$67	57.9¢	Won
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?	No	$172	46.5¢	Lost
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?	Yes	$7	23.2¢	Won
Will Minerva Torres Shelton win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?	Yes	$16	2.3¢	Lost
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?	No	$26	2.3¢	Lost
Will Democrats win exactly 8 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	$1.4k	91.0¢	Won
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	No	$166	39.0¢	Won
Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?	Yes	$164	9.6¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	$95	83.0¢	Won
Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?	No	$127	77.8¢	Won
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	$16	4.6¢	Lost
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	$52	90.5¢	Won

Will there be no OpenAI Astra model release by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$300 @ 74.5¢
Will any state ban or pause police use of Flock cameras by December 31?Lost
No$465 @ 74.6¢
Will CDU win at least 26% of all valid second votes?Lost
Yes$14 @ 9.0¢
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.4¢
Will "Tony" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
No$12 @ 81.5¢
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.4¢
Will Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by less than 4%?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will "Pluribus" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Leavitt say "Alien" during the next White House Press Briefing?Lost
Yes$65 @ 19.8¢
Will "Pluribus" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?Lost
Yes$60 @ 4.4¢
Will Leavitt say "Illegal" or "Illegals" during the next White House Press Briefing?Lost
Yes$49 @ 10.4¢
Will "The Pitt" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys?Lost
Yes$12 @ 5.9¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Lost
Yes$142 @ 7.5¢
Will 240 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.1¢
Will Alexander Hoffmann be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Lost
Yes$311 @ 53.5¢
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 5 and 10 minutes long?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.0¢
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be less than 5 minutes long?Lost
Yes$7 @ 4.7¢
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 10 and 15 minutes long?Lost
Yes$11 @ 7.8¢
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 15 and 20 minutes long?Lost
Yes$38 @ 26.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31?Lost
No$94 @ 15.5¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?Lost
Yes$7 @ 15.0¢
Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?Lost
No$1.3k @ 84.5¢
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for LA Galaxy next?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.4¢
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15?Lost
Yes$10 @ 37.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Lost
Yes$217 @ 20.0¢
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?Lost
Yes$685 @ 67.5¢
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$29 @ 18.7¢
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?Lost
Yes$81 @ 33.5¢
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$77 @ 12.2¢
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
No$2.0k @ 73.6¢
Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?Won
No$545 @ 30.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?Lost
Yes$315 @ 82.0¢
Will Democrats win 9 or more House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?Won
No$284 @ 83.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?Won
Yes$362 @ 83.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?Won
No$67 @ 57.9¢
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?Lost
No$172 @ 46.5¢
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 23.2¢
Will Minerva Torres Shelton win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.3¢
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?Lost
No$26 @ 2.3¢
Will Democrats win exactly 8 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections?Won
No$1.4k @ 91.0¢
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?Won
No$166 @ 39.0¢
Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?Lost
Yes$164 @ 9.6¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?Won
No$95 @ 83.0¢
Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Won
No$127 @ 77.8¢
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Lost
Yes$16 @ 4.6¢
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Won
No$52 @ 90.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$10.9k	56.4¢
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?	—	No	$2.0k	60.5¢
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$2.0k	73.6¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?	—	Yes	$1.9k	33.1¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$1.4k	72.3¢
Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?	—	No	$1.3k	84.5¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	—	Yes	$1.1k	36.6¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.1k	45.0¢
Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary?	—	Yes	$1.0k	10.8¢
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 14?	—	Yes	$949	34.9¢
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?	—	Yes	$797	26.1¢
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?	—	No	$787	28.1¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Politics	No	$778	77.8¢
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?	Politics	No	$726	90.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Politics	No	$720	46.5¢
Kash Patel out by May 31?	Politics	Yes	$720	33.4¢
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Politics	Yes	$685	67.5¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July?	—	Yes	$684	12.8¢
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?	—	Yes	$651	29.3¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	No	$633	57.5¢
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?	—	No	$622	28.9¢
Kash Patel out by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$592	38.6¢
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?	—	Yes	$584	26.2¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	Politics	No	$569	22.5¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$552	82.3¢
Will Michigan Make the 2026-27 CFB Playoffs?	—	No	$543	74.9¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$533	29.0¢
Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025?	—	Yes	$525	25.4¢
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?	—	Yes	$517	9.8¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?	—	No	$486	8.6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$10.9k @ 56.4¢
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?—
No$2.0k @ 60.5¢
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$2.0k @ 73.6¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?—
Yes$1.9k @ 33.1¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$1.4k @ 72.3¢
Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?—
No$1.3k @ 84.5¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?—
Yes$1.1k @ 36.6¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1.1k @ 45.0¢
Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary?—
Yes$1.0k @ 10.8¢
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 14?—
Yes$949 @ 34.9¢
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?—
Yes$797 @ 26.1¢
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?—
No$787 @ 28.1¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Politics
No$778 @ 77.8¢
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?Politics
No$726 @ 90.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Politics
No$720 @ 46.5¢
Kash Patel out by May 31?Politics
Yes$720 @ 33.4¢
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?Politics
Yes$685 @ 67.5¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July?—
Yes$684 @ 12.8¢
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?—
Yes$651 @ 29.3¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
No$633 @ 57.5¢
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?—
No$622 @ 28.9¢
Kash Patel out by June 30?Politics
Yes$592 @ 38.6¢
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?—
Yes$584 @ 26.2¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Politics
No$569 @ 22.5¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$552 @ 82.3¢
Will Michigan Make the 2026-27 CFB Playoffs?—
No$543 @ 74.9¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$533 @ 29.0¢
Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025?—
Yes$525 @ 25.4¢
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?—
Yes$517 @ 9.8¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?—
No$486 @ 8.6¢