0x874b…4af0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x874b25071e6260301efc844c86f361693ca24af0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.7pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

44% @ 32.4¢

Brier

0.158

Resolved

274

Avg size

$11

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	39% (12/31)	+11%	31
Other	35% (6/17)	+41%	17
Crypto	29% (4/14)	+54%	14
Geopolitics	20% (1/5)	-90%	5
Tech	33% (1/3)	+30%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics31 bets
Hit rate
39% (12/31)
ROI
+11%
Other17 bets
Hit rate
35% (6/17)
ROI
+41%
Crypto14 bets
Hit rate
29% (4/14)
ROI
+54%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-90%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+30%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

34% hit · 24/71

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	15.0¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$10	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$368	18.1¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$28	89.9¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$64	28.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$89	14.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14?	Yes	$2	1.6¢	Lost
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$2	18.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$480	47.4¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$37	1.6¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$33	24.2¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$4	43.2¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$9	66.8¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$2	57.0¢	Won
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	$17	1.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	5.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$138	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 2?	Yes	$5	8.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14?	Yes	$2	2.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	Yes	$2	2.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?	No	$7	67.2¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$11	1.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$57	62.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$315	33.9¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$13	64.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$4	6.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$28	7.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$29	9.3¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$251	84.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$16	24.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$158	57.1¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	2.5¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$7	2.7¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?	Yes	$1	7.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?	Yes	$5	5.4¢	Lost
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	$1	17.5¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$307	57.3¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$69	1.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$159	42.2¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	10.6¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$50	40.4¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	$5	20.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	Yes	$2	87.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	77.0¢	Won
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31?	Yes	$1	2.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Won
Ethereum flipped in 2026?	No	$32	57.5¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	$4	4.9¢	Lost

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 15.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$10 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$368 @ 18.1¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$28 @ 89.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$64 @ 28.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$89 @ 14.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.6¢
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 18.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$480 @ 47.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 1.6¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$33 @ 24.2¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$4 @ 43.2¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$9 @ 66.8¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$2 @ 57.0¢
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.1¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$138 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 2?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?Won
No$7 @ 67.2¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$11 @ 1.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$57 @ 62.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$315 @ 33.9¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$13 @ 64.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$28 @ 7.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 9.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$251 @ 84.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 24.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$158 @ 57.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.7¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.4¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$307 @ 57.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$69 @ 1.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$159 @ 42.2¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 10.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 40.4¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
No$5 @ 20.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Won
Yes$2 @ 87.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 77.0¢
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
Ethereum flipped in 2026?Lost
No$32 @ 57.5¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Lost
No$4 @ 4.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 3?	—	No	$500	99.9¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$499	90.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 3?	—	No	$129	96.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 3?	—	Yes	$117	94.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 3?	—	No	$68	99.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 3?	—	No	$63	99.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 3?	—	No	$59	99.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 3?	—	Yes	$39	99.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 3?	—	No	$38	99.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 3?	—	Yes	$32	99.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on July 3?	—	No	$23	99.9¢
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?	Sports	No	$17	91.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$11	18.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 3?	—	Yes	$9	12.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 3?	—	No	$7	99.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?	—	No	$5	99.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?	Tech	No	$3	54.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$3	13.1¢
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	8.9¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1	10.6¢
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Politics	Yes	$1	21.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	0.5¢
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31?	—	Yes	$1	2.3¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?	Tech	No	$1	9.0¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$1	53.0¢

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 3?—
No$500 @ 99.9¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$499 @ 90.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 3?—
No$129 @ 96.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 3?—
Yes$117 @ 94.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 3?—
No$68 @ 99.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 3?—
No$63 @ 99.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 3?—
No$59 @ 99.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 3?—
Yes$39 @ 99.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 3?—
No$38 @ 99.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 3?—
Yes$32 @ 99.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on July 3?—
No$23 @ 99.9¢
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?Sports
No$17 @ 91.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$11 @ 18.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 3?—
Yes$9 @ 12.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 3?—
No$7 @ 99.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?—
No$5 @ 99.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Tech
No$3 @ 54.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Politics
Yes$3 @ 13.1¢
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 8.9¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Tech
No$1 @ 10.6¢
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Politics
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31?—
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?Tech
No$1 @ 9.0¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Politics
Yes$1 @ 53.0¢