0x86c2…41be

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x86c21640e98204b628b12179080fe8a88e5941be
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.7pp

ROI

+27%

Win rate

59% @ 46.6¢

Brier

0.174

Resolved

204

Avg size

$42

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (46/80)	+7%	80
Politics	100% (5/5)	+171%	5
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other80 bets
Hit rate
57% (46/80)
ROI
+7%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+171%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

59% hit · 51/86

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?	Yes	$71	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Capone" during Digital Asset Summit?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$153	15.1¢	Lost
Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$26	51.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during announcement today?	No	$13	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Drone war" in October?	No	$3	12.0¢	Lost
Will EA say "Competition" during earnings call?	No	$28	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Turkey" 8+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?	No	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?	Yes	$6	15.4¢	Lost
Will Hillary say "Victim" during her Epstein testimony?	No	$80	80.4¢	Won
Will Elise Stefanik be out as Ambassador to the United Nations in Trump's first 100 days?	Yes	$140	70.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?	Yes	$3	16.0¢	Won
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by September 30?	No	$21	28.2¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$17	57.1¢	Won
Will Elon say "Social Security" during Baier interview on Thursday?	Yes	$19	78.0¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$134	76.3¢	Won
Israel military action against Iran in July?	Yes	$80	17.7¢	Lost
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?	Yes	$111	78.0¢	Won
Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel	Crawford	$43	85.0¢	Won
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$165	82.0¢	Won
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	$53	71.1¢	Lost
Will Trump attend UFC 320?	No	$17	83.0¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?	Yes	$36	21.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kash" or "Patel" during Diwali Celebration events on October 21?	Yes	$26	42.5¢	Won
Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?	Yes	$41	60.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hindu" or "Hinduism" during Diwali Celebration events on October 21?	Yes	$229	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?	No	$41	8.2¢	Lost
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	$223	44.7¢	Won
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	$13	2.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?	No	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during the UK state banquet on September 17?	Yes	$85	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?	No	$11	70.2¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	No	$110	22.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$1.4k	70.4¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$669	65.1¢	Won
Will any Democratic senator vote for government funding bill by Friday?	No	$678	14.5¢	Lost
Will MillerKnoll (MLKN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	No	$18	0.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Commonwealth" during the UK state banquet on September 17?	No	$35	49.7¢	Won
700+ Measles cases in U.S. before May?	Yes	$36	71.0¢	Won
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$32	63.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?	Yes	$3	9.0¢	Lost
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?	Yes	$1	1.7¢	Lost
US strikes Yemen by September 30?	Yes	$48	38.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (September 29 - October 5)	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?	Yes	$95	19.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?	Yes	$10	49.0¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	$259	45.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?	No	$34	16.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?	Yes	$18	35.0¢	Won

Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?Lost
Yes$71 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump say "Capone" during Digital Asset Summit?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$153 @ 15.1¢
Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$26 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during announcement today?Won
No$13 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump say "Drone war" in October?Lost
No$3 @ 12.0¢
Will EA say "Competition" during earnings call?Won
No$28 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump say "Turkey" 8+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?Lost
No$2 @ 0.2¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.4¢
Will Hillary say "Victim" during her Epstein testimony?Won
No$80 @ 80.4¢
Will Elise Stefanik be out as Ambassador to the United Nations in Trump's first 100 days?Won
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?Won
Yes$3 @ 16.0¢
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by September 30?Won
No$21 @ 28.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$17 @ 57.1¢
Will Elon say "Social Security" during Baier interview on Thursday?Won
Yes$19 @ 78.0¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$134 @ 76.3¢
Israel military action against Iran in July?Lost
Yes$80 @ 17.7¢
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?Won
Yes$111 @ 78.0¢
Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel Won
Crawford$43 @ 85.0¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
No$165 @ 82.0¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Lost
Yes$53 @ 71.1¢
Will Trump attend UFC 320?Won
No$17 @ 83.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Lost
Yes$36 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump say "Kash" or "Patel" during Diwali Celebration events on October 21?Won
Yes$26 @ 42.5¢
Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?Lost
Yes$41 @ 60.4¢
Will Trump say "Hindu" or "Hinduism" during Diwali Celebration events on October 21?Won
Yes$229 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?Lost
No$41 @ 8.2¢
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Won
No$223 @ 44.7¢
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Lost
Yes$13 @ 2.3¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?Lost
No$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during the UK state banquet on September 17?Lost
Yes$85 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?Won
No$11 @ 70.2¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Lost
No$110 @ 22.0¢
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$1.4k @ 70.4¢
Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Won
Yes$669 @ 65.1¢
Will any Democratic senator vote for government funding bill by Friday?Lost
No$678 @ 14.5¢
Will MillerKnoll (MLKN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?Lost
No$18 @ 0.9¢
Will Trump say "Commonwealth" during the UK state banquet on September 17?Won
No$35 @ 49.7¢
700+ Measles cases in U.S. before May?Won
Yes$36 @ 71.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$32 @ 63.0¢
Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
US strikes Yemen by September 30?Lost
Yes$48 @ 38.3¢
Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (September 29 - October 5)Won
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?Lost
Yes$95 @ 19.0¢
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?Lost
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Won
Yes$259 @ 45.5¢
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?Won
No$34 @ 16.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$18 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$707	45.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$437	39.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$332	41.5¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$163	77.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$160	32.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$121	17.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$117	15.5¢
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$83	37.0¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$46	34.6¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$44	88.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$27	18.2¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$19	26.6¢

Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$707 @ 45.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$437 @ 39.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$332 @ 41.5¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$163 @ 77.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$160 @ 32.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Politics
No$121 @ 17.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$117 @ 15.5¢
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$83 @ 37.0¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$46 @ 34.6¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$44 @ 88.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$27 @ 18.2¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$19 @ 26.6¢