0x8697…190d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x86974dde10087a6ff34978364ccd67dbea21190d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.6pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

54% @ 45.1¢

Brier

0.134

Resolved

145

Avg size

$16

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (20/54)	+19%	54
Sports	10% (1/10)	+10%	10
Politics	33% (1/3)	-24%	3
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+49%	1

Other54 bets
Hit rate
37% (20/54)
ROI
+19%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
10% (1/10)
ROI
+10%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-24%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+49%

Track record

34% hit · 23/68

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	$12	13.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$77	77.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4?	No	$20	39.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?	Yes	$4	43.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?	No	$56	89.3¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 11?	No	$9	83.0¢	Lost
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?	No	$149	67.1¢	Won
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	$10	28.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 11?	Yes	$4	44.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$336	67.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?	Yes	$5	29.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 14?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?	No	$34	66.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3?	Yes	$5	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?	No	$75	88.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 23?	Yes	$46	14.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$45	45.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?	Yes	$5	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 23?	No	$149	82.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6?	Yes	$4	13.5¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 10?	No	$4	80.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 3?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$132	55.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 3?	Yes	$5	4.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?	No	$88	88.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?	Yes	$30	18.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22?	Yes	$14	13.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$322	71.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1?	Yes	$47	67.7¢	Won
Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	$11	4.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on April 23?	Yes	$57	33.4¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May 10?	No	$27	83.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 4?	Yes	$3	6.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5?	Yes	$3	1.2¢	Lost
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?	No	$69	50.5¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12?	No	$16	76.1¢	Won
Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	$21	20.8¢	Lost
Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?	Yes	$5	9.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2?	Yes	$3	5.9¢	Lost
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	$25	5.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 14?	Yes	$4	5.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?	Yes	$9	8.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?	Yes	$4	8.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?	Yes	$287	84.9¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 11?	No	$23	79.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 22?	Yes	$7	3.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 27?	Yes	$7	12.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 3?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	No	$43	88.0¢	Won

Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?Lost
Yes$12 @ 13.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$77 @ 77.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4?Lost
No$20 @ 39.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?Won
Yes$4 @ 43.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?Lost
No$56 @ 89.3¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 11?Lost
No$9 @ 83.0¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?Won
No$149 @ 67.1¢
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?Lost
Yes$10 @ 28.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 11?Lost
Yes$4 @ 44.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$336 @ 67.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?Won
No$34 @ 66.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3?Won
Yes$5 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?Won
No$75 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 23?Lost
Yes$46 @ 14.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$45 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 23?Won
No$149 @ 82.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.5¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 10?Won
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 3?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$132 @ 55.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 3?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?Won
No$88 @ 88.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?Lost
Yes$30 @ 18.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22?Lost
Yes$14 @ 13.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$322 @ 71.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1?Won
Yes$47 @ 67.7¢
Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?Won
Yes$11 @ 4.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on April 23?Lost
Yes$57 @ 33.4¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May 10?Lost
No$27 @ 83.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 4?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.2¢
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?Won
No$69 @ 50.5¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12?Won
No$16 @ 76.1¢
Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?Lost
Yes$21 @ 20.8¢
Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.9¢
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?Lost
Yes$25 @ 5.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 14?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?Won
Yes$9 @ 8.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?Won
Yes$4 @ 8.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?Won
Yes$287 @ 84.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 11?Won
No$23 @ 79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 22?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 27?Lost
Yes$7 @ 12.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 3?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?Won
No$43 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 22?	—	Yes	$1.0k	99.9¢
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?	—	No	$919	99.2¢
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in July?	—	No	$724	99.2¢
Will Seoul have 100mm or more of precipitation in July?	—	Yes	$718	98.5¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 22?	—	No	$671	99.9¢
Will Seoul have between 40-50mm of precipitation in July?	—	No	$540	99.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$501	31.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$432	72.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 22?	—	No	$416	99.9¢
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?	—	No	$385	99.6¢
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in July?	—	No	$331	98.2¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 22?	—	No	$255	99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on July 22?	—	No	$140	99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 22?	—	No	$113	99.7¢
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 23?	—	No	$110	99.9¢
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?	—	No	$98	98.4¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 22?	—	No	$90	99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 22?	—	No	$85	99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 22?	—	No	$77	98.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?	—	No	$55	99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on July 22?	—	No	$35	99.9¢
Will Seoul have between 70-80mm of precipitation in July?	—	No	$24	97.6¢
Will Seoul have between 50-60mm of precipitation in July?	—	No	$22	99.2¢
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on July 23?	—	No	$22	99.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 22?	—	No	$20	99.8¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$10	23.0¢
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$7	16.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$6	14.0¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	No	$5	66.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 23?	—	No	$5	99.9¢

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 22?—
Yes$1.0k @ 99.9¢
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?—
No$919 @ 99.2¢
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in July?—
No$724 @ 99.2¢
Will Seoul have 100mm or more of precipitation in July?—
Yes$718 @ 98.5¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 22?—
No$671 @ 99.9¢
Will Seoul have between 40-50mm of precipitation in July?—
No$540 @ 99.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$501 @ 31.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$432 @ 72.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 22?—
No$416 @ 99.9¢
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?—
No$385 @ 99.6¢
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in July?—
No$331 @ 98.2¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 22?—
No$255 @ 99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on July 22?—
No$140 @ 99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 22?—
No$113 @ 99.7¢
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 23?—
No$110 @ 99.9¢
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?—
No$98 @ 98.4¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 22?—
No$90 @ 99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 22?—
No$85 @ 99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 22?—
No$77 @ 98.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?—
No$55 @ 99.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on July 22?—
No$35 @ 99.9¢
Will Seoul have between 70-80mm of precipitation in July?—
No$24 @ 97.6¢
Will Seoul have between 50-60mm of precipitation in July?—
No$22 @ 99.2¢
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on July 23?—
No$22 @ 99.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 22?—
No$20 @ 99.8¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$10 @ 23.0¢
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$7 @ 16.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$6 @ 14.0¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
No$5 @ 66.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 23?—
No$5 @ 99.9¢