0x8697…190d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x86974dde10087a6ff34978364ccd67dbea21190d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.6pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

46% @ 38.4¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

330

Avg size

$21

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (60/125)	+2%	125
Sports	18% (3/17)	+3%	17
Politics	40% (4/10)	-0%	10
Science	71% (5/7)	-0%	7
Geopolitics	75% (3/4)	+161%	4

Other125 bets
Hit rate
48% (60/125)
ROI
+2%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
18% (3/17)
ROI
+3%
Politics10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
-0%
Science7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
-0%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+161%

Track record

46% hit · 75/163

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May?	Yes	$18	63.6¢	Won
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in June?	No	$336	87.4¢	Won
0x074bbefa…	Yes	$24	79.0¢	Won
0x07a23c51…	Yes	$10	22.0¢	Lost
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	$12	13.6¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$15	75.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$72	33.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$77	77.0¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$16	31.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$15	50.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4?	No	$20	39.4¢	Lost
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?	Yes	$11	12.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?	Yes	$4	43.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	5.2¢	Lost
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$50	9.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 18?	No	$25	71.8¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 19?	Yes	$11	18.3¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$10	28.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?	No	$56	89.3¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 11?	No	$9	83.0¢	Lost
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$17	17.0¢	Lost
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$50	12.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27?	Yes	$11	7.5¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	8.6¢	Lost
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?	No	$2	2.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?	Yes	$5	18.9¢	Lost
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$885	33.2¢	Won
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?	No	$149	67.1¢	Won
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	$10	28.0¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	11.1¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	No	$6	0.3¢	Lost
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$10	13.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 11?	Yes	$4	44.0¢	Lost
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$10	11.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	$36	72.0¢	Won
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$10	12.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$336	67.2¢	Won
0x52a5ce59…	Yes	$13	8.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?	Yes	$5	29.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 14?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?	No	$34	66.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3?	Yes	$5	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?	No	$75	88.0¢	Won
0x5be682bc…	Yes	$46	14.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$45	45.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?	Yes	$5	10.0¢	Lost
0x639c0827…	No	$149	82.7¢	Won

Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May?Won
Yes$18 @ 63.6¢
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in June?Won
No$336 @ 87.4¢
0x074bbefa…Won
Yes$24 @ 79.0¢
0x07a23c51…Lost
Yes$10 @ 22.0¢
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?Lost
Yes$12 @ 13.6¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$15 @ 75.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$72 @ 33.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$77 @ 77.0¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$16 @ 31.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$15 @ 50.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4?Lost
No$20 @ 39.4¢
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?Won
Yes$11 @ 12.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?Won
Yes$4 @ 43.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.2¢
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 18?Lost
No$25 @ 71.8¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 19?Won
Yes$11 @ 18.3¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$10 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?Lost
No$56 @ 89.3¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 11?Lost
No$9 @ 83.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 12.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27?Won
Yes$11 @ 7.5¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.6¢
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?Lost
No$2 @ 2.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?Lost
Yes$5 @ 18.9¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$885 @ 33.2¢
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?Won
No$149 @ 67.1¢
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?Lost
Yes$10 @ 28.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Lost
No$6 @ 0.3¢
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$10 @ 13.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 11?Lost
Yes$4 @ 44.0¢
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$10 @ 11.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Won
Yes$36 @ 72.0¢
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$336 @ 67.2¢
0x52a5ce59…Lost
Yes$13 @ 8.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?Won
No$34 @ 66.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3?Won
Yes$5 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?Won
No$75 @ 88.0¢
0x5be682bc…Lost
Yes$46 @ 14.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$45 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
0x639c0827…Won
No$149 @ 82.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$740	34.1¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	No	$85	29.1¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$82	23.3¢
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$17	17.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$740 @ 34.1¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
No$85 @ 29.1¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$82 @ 23.3¢
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢