0x8673…4025

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8673e56b63b9cec4bbf96b4d4bd01a9333464025
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.8pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

12% @ 10.1¢

Brier

0.063

Resolved

1974

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (53/142)	+38%	142
Tech	25% (26/105)	-21%	105
Politics	31% (11/35)	+50%	35
Economy	32% (7/22)	+84%	22
Geopolitics	16% (3/19)	-67%	19
Sports	14% (1/7)	-94%	7
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+438%	1

Other142 bets
Hit rate
37% (53/142)
ROI
+38%
Tech105 bets
Hit rate
25% (26/105)
ROI
-21%
Politics35 bets
Hit rate
31% (11/35)
ROI
+50%
Economy22 bets
Hit rate
32% (7/22)
ROI
+84%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
16% (3/19)
ROI
-67%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-94%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+438%

Track record

31% hit · 102/332

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the median home value in Miami be less than $1,017,000 on September 30?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?	Yes	$17	14.0¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	$4	5.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$27	11.1¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$5	41.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	$12	75.7¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$31	69.5¢	Won
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	$9	76.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$60	14.4¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$32	16.8¢	Lost
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$14	0.8¢	Lost
Will ByteDance be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$9	0.5¢	Lost
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	$7	31.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$23	12.9¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$12	87.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$40	42.2¢	Won
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$8	0.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	1.4¢	Lost
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30?	Yes	$1	13.7¢	Won
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	15.3¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$25	12.9¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$27	4.1¢	Lost
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$7	2.2¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?	No	$18	73.9¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?	Yes	$2	25.0¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Won
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	$2	30.0¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?	Yes	$2	8.9¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	$2	62.8¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$2	85.4¢	Lost
Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$9	2.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$11	76.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$29	16.0¢	Lost
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?	Yes	$3	11.9¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$5	13.8¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Yes	$2	13.2¢	Lost
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	$8	33.4¢	Won
Will SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$3	0.7¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$32	6.7¢	Lost

Will the median home value in Miami be less than $1,017,000 on September 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?Lost
Yes$17 @ 14.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 11.1¢
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 41.2¢
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 75.7¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$31 @ 69.5¢
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?Won
Yes$9 @ 76.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$60 @ 14.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$32 @ 16.8¢
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.8¢
Will ByteDance be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.5¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 31.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 12.9¢
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 87.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$40 @ 42.2¢
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.4¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 13.7¢
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 15.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$25 @ 12.9¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 4.1¢
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.2¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 73.9¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 30.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.9¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 62.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 85.4¢
Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 76.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 16.0¢
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?Won
Yes$3 @ 11.9¢
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 13.8¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.2¢
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 33.4¢
Will SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.7¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$32 @ 6.7¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$35	87.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$25	38.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$17	63.9¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$14	2.5¢
Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$10	16.3¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	61.8¢
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$8	51.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$7	16.1¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$7	14.4¢
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	13.5¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	0.9¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	14.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Tech	No	$1	1.5¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	10.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	13.6¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	9.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	4.3¢

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$35 @ 87.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$25 @ 38.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$17 @ 63.9¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$14 @ 2.5¢
Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$10 @ 16.3¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 61.8¢
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech
Yes$8 @ 51.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$7 @ 16.1¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$7 @ 14.4¢
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 13.5¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Tech
No$1 @ 1.5¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 13.6¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 4.3¢