0x85d5…bbf0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x85d57ae07c1c0cae93f1ed6d05166eff4233bbf0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.1pp

ROI

+37%

Win rate

38% @ 28.6¢

Brier

0.187

Resolved

1585

Avg size

$11

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (50/141)	+15%	141
Science	36% (24/66)	-7%	66
Sports	52% (13/25)	+23%	25
Politics	45% (9/20)	+97%	20
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	-77%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other141 bets
Hit rate
35% (50/141)
ROI
+15%
Science66 bets
Hit rate
36% (24/66)
ROI
-7%
Sports25 bets
Hit rate
52% (13/25)
ROI
+23%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
45% (9/20)
ROI
+97%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-77%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 97/256

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on September 25?	Yes	$12	37.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on September 25?	Yes	$11	7.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 25?	Yes	$13	32.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on September 25?	No	$77	56.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on September 25?	Yes	$4	17.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on September 25?	Yes	$4	9.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 25?	Yes	$29	17.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 25?	No	$12	14.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 25?	No	$8	67.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 25?	No	$33	39.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 25?	Yes	$1	32.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 25?	Yes	$1	9.6¢	Lost
Will Brazil win on 2026-09-25?	No	$72	23.7¢	Won
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	No	$84	53.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$839	17.5¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$24	9.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 20?	Yes	$6	7.3¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$213	6.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$304	52.8¢	Won
M15 Bologna: Jacopo Bilardo vs Manuel Mazza	Jacopo Bilardo	$26	33.0¢	Lost
M15 Bologna: Jacopo Bilardo vs Manuel Mazza	Manuel Mazza	$7	66.0¢	Won
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?	No	$13	11.0¢	Lost
Will FK Kudrivka vs. FK Kolos Kovalivka end in a draw?	Yes	$6	31.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$487	5.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?	Yes	$0	2.8¢	Lost
Will CSD Suchitepéquez win on 2026-09-24?	No	$21	84.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 12?	Yes	$115	21.9¢	Lost
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	$43	10.8¢	Lost
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Kia Tigers	Kiwoom Heroes	$1	34.7¢	Lost
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	$9	4.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 23?	Yes	$40	15.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 12?	No	$303	70.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 12?	Yes	$0	26.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?	No	$207	89.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?	Yes	$12	5.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on September 23?	No	$37	77.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on September 23?	Yes	$30	19.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 21?	No	$59	62.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 21?	Yes	$3	30.6¢	Lost
LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Lodis (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A	Lodis	$33	18.0¢	Won
Will CSD Municipal win on 2026-09-24?	No	$117	34.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 15?	Yes	$17	6.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 23?	No	$31	54.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on September 23?	No	$75	85.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on September 23?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 5?	No	$35	55.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 5?	Yes	$7	42.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on September 21?	No	$105	49.7¢	Lost
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Hokori (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage	Hokori	$8	4.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on September 23?	No	$67	84.0¢	Won

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on September 25?Lost
Yes$12 @ 37.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on September 25?Lost
Yes$11 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 25?Lost
Yes$13 @ 32.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on September 25?Lost
No$77 @ 56.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on September 25?Won
Yes$4 @ 17.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on September 25?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 25?Lost
Yes$29 @ 17.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 25?Lost
No$12 @ 14.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 25?Won
No$8 @ 67.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 25?Won
No$33 @ 39.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 25?Lost
Yes$1 @ 32.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 25?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.6¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-09-25?Won
No$72 @ 23.7¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?Won
No$84 @ 53.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$839 @ 17.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$24 @ 9.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 20?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.3¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$213 @ 6.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$304 @ 52.8¢
M15 Bologna: Jacopo Bilardo vs Manuel MazzaLost
Jacopo Bilardo$26 @ 33.0¢
M15 Bologna: Jacopo Bilardo vs Manuel MazzaWon
Manuel Mazza$7 @ 66.0¢
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?Lost
No$13 @ 11.0¢
Will FK Kudrivka vs. FK Kolos Kovalivka end in a draw?Lost
Yes$6 @ 31.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$487 @ 5.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.8¢
Will CSD Suchitepéquez win on 2026-09-24?Won
No$21 @ 84.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 12?Lost
Yes$115 @ 21.9¢
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$43 @ 10.8¢
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Kia TigersLost
Kiwoom Heroes$1 @ 34.7¢
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 4.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 23?Lost
Yes$40 @ 15.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 12?Won
No$303 @ 70.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 12?Lost
Yes$0 @ 26.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?Lost
No$207 @ 89.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?Won
Yes$12 @ 5.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on September 23?Won
No$37 @ 77.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on September 23?Lost
Yes$30 @ 19.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 21?Won
No$59 @ 62.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 21?Lost
Yes$3 @ 30.6¢
LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Lodis (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group AWon
Lodis$33 @ 18.0¢
Will CSD Municipal win on 2026-09-24?Lost
No$117 @ 34.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 15?Lost
Yes$17 @ 6.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 23?Won
No$31 @ 54.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on September 23?Lost
No$75 @ 85.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on September 23?Won
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 5?Won
No$35 @ 55.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 5?Lost
Yes$7 @ 42.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on September 21?Lost
No$105 @ 49.7¢
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Hokori (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageLost
Hokori$8 @ 4.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on September 23?Won
No$67 @ 84.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$279	35.7¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$253	33.6¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$250	81.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Politics	No	$243	24.6¢
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Culture	No	$235	26.4¢
Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Culture	No	$228	64.9¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$215	17.2¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$135	45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 27?	Science	No	$101	59.0¢
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?	Politics	Yes	$99	12.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$93	31.0¢
KBO: NC Dinos vs. LG Twins	—	NC Dinos	$83	45.0¢
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Sports	No	$80	83.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$78	26.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on September 25?	Science	No	$77	70.8¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?	Geopolitics	No	$72	54.0¢
Will Jamaica win on 2026-09-25?	Sports	No	$71	47.0¢
Will Eno Umo Bassey win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?	Politics	No	$70	26.0¢
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$66	66.8¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$63	26.0¢
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$62	64.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on September 25?	Science	No	$59	92.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on September 26?	Science	Yes	$53	42.4¢
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?	Politics	Yes	$51	17.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Other	Yes	$51	40.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 25?	Science	No	$50	22.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$48	16.0¢
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$43	43.7¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September?	Other	Yes	$37	26.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on September 25?	Science	No	$35	26.2¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$279 @ 35.7¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Politics
No$253 @ 33.6¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Politics
No$250 @ 81.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?Politics
No$243 @ 24.6¢
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?Culture
No$235 @ 26.4¢
Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?Culture
No$228 @ 64.9¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$215 @ 17.2¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$135 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 27?Science
No$101 @ 59.0¢
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?Politics
Yes$99 @ 12.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$93 @ 31.0¢
KBO: NC Dinos vs. LG Twins—
NC Dinos$83 @ 45.0¢
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Sports
No$80 @ 83.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$78 @ 26.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on September 25?Science
No$77 @ 70.8¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?Geopolitics
No$72 @ 54.0¢
Will Jamaica win on 2026-09-25?Sports
No$71 @ 47.0¢
Will Eno Umo Bassey win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?Politics
No$70 @ 26.0¢
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
No$66 @ 66.8¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$63 @ 26.0¢
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$62 @ 64.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on September 25?Science
No$59 @ 92.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on September 26?Science
Yes$53 @ 42.4¢
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?Politics
Yes$51 @ 17.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?Other
Yes$51 @ 40.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 25?Science
No$50 @ 22.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$48 @ 16.0¢
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$43 @ 43.7¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September?Other
Yes$37 @ 26.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on September 25?Science
No$35 @ 26.2¢