0x858b…a2ce

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x858b2b912db9b4f0086a97d9cc13c604fdc6a2ce
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+3.0pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

37% @ 34.5¢

Brier

0.171

Resolved

2097

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (92/240)	-1%	240
Science	16% (19/120)	+13%	120
Tech	55% (23/42)	+16%	42
Politics	25% (4/16)	+16%	16
Geopolitics	13% (1/8)	+117%	8
Culture	25% (1/4)	+20%	4
Economy	100% (1/1)	+104%	1

Other240 bets
Hit rate
38% (92/240)
ROI
-1%
Science120 bets
Hit rate
16% (19/120)
ROI
+13%
Tech42 bets
Hit rate
55% (23/42)
ROI
+16%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
25% (4/16)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
+117%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+20%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+104%

Track record

33% hit · 141/431

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	$4	79.0¢	Won
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	22.0¢	Won
Baidu announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$9	95.0¢	Won
DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
Moonshot announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$9	88.5¢	Won
Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$3	11.7¢	Won
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Won
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Won
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$9	47.0¢	Lost
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9?	Yes	$15	30.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2?	Yes	$28	32.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23?	No	$9	76.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26?	Yes	$3	20.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?	Yes	$5	22.1¢	Lost
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$8	41.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?	Yes	$212	87.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?	Yes	$23	31.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 17?	No	$12	88.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?	Yes	$13	32.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?	Yes	$3	14.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?	Yes	$18	54.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?	Yes	$10	50.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9?	Yes	$35	42.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?	Yes	$18	14.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?	Yes	$15	29.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8?	No	$7	70.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 31?	Yes	$8	7.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?	Yes	$84	40.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 24?	No	$45	76.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26?	Yes	$12	39.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?	Yes	$15	28.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 13?	Yes	$5	88.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10?	Yes	$0	2.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 25?	Yes	$2	20.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25?	No	$12	76.7¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$3	32.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 13?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2?	Yes	$9	25.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?	Yes	$4	20.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 2?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost

Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 79.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
Baidu announces a training pause by October 31?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?Won
No$9 @ 95.0¢
DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Moonshot announces a training pause by October 31?Won
No$9 @ 88.5¢
Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 11.7¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 47.0¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9?Lost
Yes$15 @ 30.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$28 @ 32.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23?Lost
No$9 @ 76.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26?Lost
Yes$3 @ 20.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?Lost
Yes$5 @ 22.1¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$8 @ 41.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?Won
Yes$212 @ 87.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?Won
Yes$23 @ 31.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 17?Won
No$12 @ 88.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?Lost
Yes$13 @ 32.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?Won
Yes$3 @ 14.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?Won
Yes$18 @ 54.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?Lost
Yes$10 @ 50.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9?Lost
Yes$35 @ 42.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?Won
Yes$18 @ 14.8¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?Won
Yes$15 @ 29.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8?Won
No$7 @ 70.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?Won
Yes$84 @ 40.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 24?Lost
No$45 @ 76.2¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26?Won
Yes$12 @ 39.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?Lost
Yes$15 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 13?Won
Yes$5 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 25?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25?Won
No$12 @ 76.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 32.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$9 @ 25.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?Lost
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 2?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?	Tech	No	$33	98.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$15	75.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$14	93.8¢
Will Mina the Hollower win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	No	$10	99.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$10	98.1¢
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$10	60.5¢
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?	Tech	No	$9	93.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?	Tech	No	$9	92.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	34.3¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$9	89.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$9	87.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$8	76.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$6	64.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$5	96.9¢
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	22.5¢
Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$2	27.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	12.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	4.4¢
Will Control Resonant win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	Yes	$0	7.0¢

Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?Tech
No$33 @ 98.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$15 @ 75.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$14 @ 93.8¢
Will Mina the Hollower win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
No$10 @ 99.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$10 @ 98.1¢
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$10 @ 60.5¢
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?Tech
No$9 @ 93.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?Tech
No$9 @ 92.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 34.3¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$9 @ 89.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$9 @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
Yes$8 @ 76.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$6 @ 64.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$5 @ 96.9¢
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 22.5¢
Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 4.4¢
Will Control Resonant win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
Yes$0 @ 7.0¢