0x858b…a2ce

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x858b2b912db9b4f0086a97d9cc13c604fdc6a2ce
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

39% @ 33.3¢

Brier

0.170

Resolved

1150

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (34/104)	+14%	104
Science	27% (3/11)	+31%	11
Politics	33% (2/6)	+25%	6
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other104 bets
Hit rate
33% (34/104)
ROI
+14%
Science11 bets
Hit rate
27% (3/11)
ROI
+31%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+25%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

31% hit · 39/124

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?	Yes	$5	22.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?	Yes	$23	31.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?	Yes	$13	32.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?	Yes	$3	14.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?	Yes	$18	54.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?	Yes	$10	50.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?	Yes	$18	14.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?	Yes	$84	40.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?	Yes	$15	28.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?	Yes	$4	20.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 2?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 14?	Yes	$19	41.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 12?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 6?	Yes	$13	36.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 4?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?	Yes	$17	27.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19?	Yes	$1	2.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 13?	Yes	$14	36.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?	Yes	$91	43.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?	Yes	$133	64.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 12?	Yes	$3	19.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 13?	Yes	$0	3.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 10?	Yes	$16	45.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17?	Yes	$1	6.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 3?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16?	Yes	$3	6.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 4?	Yes	$10	49.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 26?	Yes	$24	59.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 3?	Yes	$4	19.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?	Yes	$47	35.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28?	No	$2	55.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 13?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23?	Yes	$56	32.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?	Yes	$15	59.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?	Yes	$130	51.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 5?	Yes	$5	26.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 19?	Yes	$2	11.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 13?	Yes	$10	27.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18?	Yes	$41	40.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?	Yes	$73	52.8¢	Won
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	$2	6.7¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$2	16.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 3?	Yes	$5	50.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Yes	$1	11.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 12?	Yes	$4	10.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 26?	Yes	$28	45.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 9?	Yes	$27	33.1¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?Lost
Yes$5 @ 22.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?Won
Yes$23 @ 31.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?Lost
Yes$13 @ 32.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?Won
Yes$3 @ 14.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?Won
Yes$18 @ 54.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?Lost
Yes$10 @ 50.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?Won
Yes$18 @ 14.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?Won
Yes$84 @ 40.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?Lost
Yes$15 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?Lost
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 2?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 14?Won
Yes$19 @ 41.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 12?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 6?Won
Yes$13 @ 36.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 4?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?Lost
Yes$17 @ 27.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 13?Lost
Yes$14 @ 36.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?Lost
Yes$91 @ 43.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?Won
Yes$133 @ 64.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 12?Lost
Yes$3 @ 19.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 13?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 10?Lost
Yes$16 @ 45.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 3?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 4?Won
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 26?Won
Yes$24 @ 59.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 3?Lost
Yes$4 @ 19.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?Won
Yes$47 @ 35.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28?Won
No$2 @ 55.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$56 @ 32.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?Won
Yes$15 @ 59.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?Won
Yes$130 @ 51.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 5?Lost
Yes$5 @ 26.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 13?Lost
Yes$10 @ 27.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18?Won
Yes$41 @ 40.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?Won
Yes$73 @ 52.8¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Lost
No$2 @ 6.7¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 16.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 3?Won
Yes$5 @ 50.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 12?Lost
Yes$4 @ 10.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 26?Lost
Yes$28 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 9?Lost
Yes$27 @ 33.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?	Tech	No	$24	98.5¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$16	93.5¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$16	78.5¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$14	93.8¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Tech	No	$14	75.4¢
Will Mina the Hollower win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	No	$10	99.0¢
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$10	60.5¢
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?	Tech	No	$9	93.0¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$9	92.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?	Tech	No	$9	92.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$9	91.5¢
Moonshot announces a training pause by October 31?	—	No	$9	88.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$8	83.0¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Politics	Yes	$8	39.9¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Tech	Yes	$7	73.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$7	73.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$7	68.0¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$7	65.5¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$6	64.0¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$6	63.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$5	96.9¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Tech	Yes	$5	46.0¢
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	—	Yes	$5	46.0¢
Will Tencent have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	—	No	$5	92.0¢
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?	—	Yes	$5	22.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	45.0¢
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?	—	No	$4	89.0¢
Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31?	—	No	$4	89.0¢
Baidu announces a training pause by October 31?	—	No	$4	88.0¢
DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31?	—	No	$4	88.0¢

Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?Tech
No$24 @ 98.5¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Tech
Yes$16 @ 93.5¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$16 @ 78.5¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$14 @ 93.8¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Tech
No$14 @ 75.4¢
Will Mina the Hollower win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
No$10 @ 99.0¢
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$10 @ 60.5¢
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?Tech
No$9 @ 93.0¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$9 @ 92.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?Tech
No$9 @ 92.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$9 @ 91.5¢
Moonshot announces a training pause by October 31?—
No$9 @ 88.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$8 @ 83.0¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics
Yes$8 @ 39.9¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Tech
Yes$7 @ 73.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$7 @ 73.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$7 @ 68.0¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$7 @ 65.5¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$6 @ 64.0¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$6 @ 63.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$5 @ 96.9¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?Tech
Yes$5 @ 46.0¢
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?—
Yes$5 @ 46.0¢
Will Tencent have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?—
No$5 @ 92.0¢
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?—
Yes$5 @ 22.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 45.0¢
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?—
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31?—
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Baidu announces a training pause by October 31?—
No$4 @ 88.0¢
DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31?—
No$4 @ 88.0¢