0x853c…bd03

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x853c37a959a5791b849e3f3225c7f5963746bd03
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-4.0pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

37% @ 40.6¢

Brier

0.190

Resolved

2474

Avg size

$467

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (156/338)	+61%	338
Politics	34% (47/140)	-14%	140
Sports	31% (4/13)	-50%	13
Geopolitics	36% (4/11)	-78%	11
Tech	25% (2/8)	+193%	8
Economy	67% (2/3)	+3%	3
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-53%	3
Culture	100% (1/1)	+144%	1

Other338 bets
Hit rate
46% (156/338)
ROI
+61%
Politics140 bets
Hit rate
34% (47/140)
ROI
-14%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
-50%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
-78%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
+193%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+3%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-53%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+144%

Track record

42% hit · 217/517

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$1.2k	9.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	No	$2.9k	29.0¢	Lost
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at market close on IPO day?	No	$508	48.9¢	Lost
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$43	22.6¢	Won
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	$433	42.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	No	$2.0k	58.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	No	$2.2k	82.8¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?	Yes	$609	84.0¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$9	30.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Invasion" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	No	$18	71.8¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$508	45.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	No	$2.8k	82.4¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$1.2k	28.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$351	87.8¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$5	2.7¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$2.2k	51.8¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$518	9.3¢	Lost
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	$554	57.7¢	Lost
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	$673	51.0¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$9.4k	41.1¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$762	10.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$9.2k	62.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$40.1k	14.0¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	Yes	$1.5k	85.6¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$989	88.0¢	Won
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	$1.0k	29.5¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$2.6k	49.4¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$1.5k	37.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$68	34.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nuclear" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	No	$137	47.2¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$167	63.1¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$1.0k	29.3¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$93	3.7¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	19.0¢	Won
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2?	Yes	$8	2.0¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$429	17.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "World Cup" during events with Brazilian president?	Yes	$900	45.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	No	$76	6.7¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$3.4k	46.9¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	No	$4.8k	61.8¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$9.3k	22.8¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	Yes	$6.0k	76.9¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$1.1k	74.4¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	Yes	$518	10.6¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$509	40.0¢	Won
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	$970	35.5¢	Lost
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	$18.6k	87.7¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$997	83.2¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	41.0¢	Lost
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	$77	69.0¢	Won

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 9.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Lost
No$2.9k @ 29.0¢
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at market close on IPO day?Lost
No$508 @ 48.9¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$43 @ 22.6¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Lost
Yes$433 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 58.5¢
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 82.8¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Won
Yes$609 @ 84.0¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$9 @ 30.1¢
Will Trump say "Invasion" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?Won
No$18 @ 71.8¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$508 @ 45.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Won
No$2.8k @ 82.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 28.3¢
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$351 @ 87.8¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceLost
Switzerland$5 @ 2.7¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
No$2.2k @ 51.8¢
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? Lost
Yes$518 @ 9.3¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
No$554 @ 57.7¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Won
Yes$673 @ 51.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$9.4k @ 41.1¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$762 @ 10.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$9.2k @ 62.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$40.1k @ 14.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 85.6¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$989 @ 88.0¢
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 29.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 49.4¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$1.5k @ 37.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$68 @ 34.2¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?Won
No$137 @ 47.2¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
Yes$167 @ 63.1¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 29.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$93 @ 3.7¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 19.0¢
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$429 @ 17.2¢
Will Trump say "World Cup" during events with Brazilian president?Lost
Yes$900 @ 45.0¢
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$76 @ 6.7¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$3.4k @ 46.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Lost
No$4.8k @ 61.8¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Lost
No$9.3k @ 22.8¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Won
Yes$6.0k @ 76.9¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 74.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$518 @ 10.6¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$509 @ 40.0¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Lost
No$970 @ 35.5¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$18.6k @ 87.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$997 @ 83.2¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 41.0¢
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Won
Yes$77 @ 69.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$3.7k	47.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$289	15.6¢
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Politics	Yes	$201	55.1¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	55.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$49	41.2¢
Will Anthropic list on the NASDAQ?	Tech	Yes	$43	92.2¢
RFK Jr. Out by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$16	6.9¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	29.4¢
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	10.6¢
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anthropic PBC?	Politics	No	$7	61.0¢

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$3.7k @ 47.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?Politics
Yes$289 @ 15.6¢
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Politics
Yes$201 @ 55.1¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 55.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$49 @ 41.2¢
Will Anthropic list on the NASDAQ?Tech
Yes$43 @ 92.2¢
RFK Jr. Out by October 31?Politics
Yes$16 @ 6.9¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 29.4¢
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 10.6¢
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anthropic PBC?Politics
No$7 @ 61.0¢