← Smart money
0x84d3…b286
SharpEdge
+14.9pp
ROI
+9%
Win rate
91% @ 76.5¢
Brier
0.039
Resolved
70
Avg size
$120
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 88% (7/8) | +24% | 8 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +1% | 1 |
- Other8 bets
- Hit rate
- 88% (7/8)
- ROI
- +24%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +1%
Track record
80% hit · 8/10| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September? | No | $23.3k | 98.6¢ | Won |
| No airdrop in 2025? | Yes | $4 | 7.0¢ | Lost |
| First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | Gold | $5 | 72.0¢ | Won |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in April? | No | $801 | 87.0¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | $999 | 34.0¢ | Lost |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | $500 | 66.0¢ | Won |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? | No | $3.5k | 82.2¢ | Won |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? | No | $2.0k | 82.5¢ | Won |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | Yes | $591 | 71.8¢ | Won |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | $5 | 87.0¢ | Won |
- No$23.3k @ 98.6¢
- Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
- Gold$5 @ 72.0¢
- No$801 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$999 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$500 @ 66.0¢
- No$3.5k @ 82.2¢
- No$2.0k @ 82.5¢
- Yes$591 @ 71.8¢
- Yes$5 @ 87.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 September 28-October 4? | Crypto | No | $11.8k | 97.4¢ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4? | Crypto | No | $8.6k | 98.7¢ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 28-October 4? | Crypto | No | $2.2k | 98.4¢ |
- No$11.8k @ 97.4¢
- No$8.6k @ 98.7¢
- No$2.2k @ 98.4¢