0x848d…35e6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x848df648f91091f0f90d941990764c895d1235e6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.0pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

71% @ 57.2¢

Brier

0.178

Resolved

535

Avg size

$50

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	54% (22/41)	+24%	41
Other	63% (20/32)	-9%	32
Geopolitics	64% (9/14)	+31%	14
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics41 bets
Hit rate
54% (22/41)
ROI
+24%
Other32 bets
Hit rate
63% (20/32)
ROI
-9%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
64% (9/14)
ROI
+31%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

58% hit · 51/88

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$276	61.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$136	42.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$346	86.9¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	No	$258	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.1k	67.2¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	$468	40.6¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$84	81.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$310	83.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	$74	10.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$52	26.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$84	84.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$65	54.0¢	Won
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$155	81.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$40	80.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?	Yes	$23	3.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$78	78.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$205	83.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$597	36.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$262	74.8¢	Won
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	$1.5k	78.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$189	8.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$380	76.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$1.1k	88.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$40	64.9¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?	Yes	$1000	85.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$364	71.3¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$100	83.0¢	Won
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?	No	$246	24.6¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$88	87.7¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$370	77.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$34	18.0¢	Lost
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?	No	$110	85.0¢	Won
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	$38	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$193	48.3¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$516	82.9¢	Won
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	2.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$254	60.6¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$21	35.0¢	Lost
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?	No	$350	85.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$80	66.3¢	Lost
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	$117	78.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$902	83.4¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$44	88.0¢	Won
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$24	60.0¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$237	52.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$900	73.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$300	64.7¢	Won

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$276 @ 61.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$136 @ 42.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$346 @ 86.9¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Won
No$258 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 67.2¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
Yes$468 @ 40.6¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$84 @ 81.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$310 @ 83.6¢
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?Lost
Yes$74 @ 10.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
No$84 @ 84.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$65 @ 54.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$155 @ 81.3¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$40 @ 80.0¢
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?Lost
Yes$23 @ 3.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$78 @ 78.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$205 @ 83.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$597 @ 36.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$262 @ 74.8¢
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 78.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$189 @ 8.3¢
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$380 @ 76.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$1.1k @ 88.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$40 @ 64.9¢
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Won
Yes$1000 @ 85.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$364 @ 71.3¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 83.0¢
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?Lost
No$246 @ 24.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$88 @ 87.7¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$370 @ 77.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 18.0¢
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?Won
No$110 @ 85.0¢
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Won
No$38 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$193 @ 48.3¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$516 @ 82.9¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$254 @ 60.6¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 35.0¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Won
No$350 @ 85.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$80 @ 66.3¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?Won
Yes$117 @ 78.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$902 @ 83.4¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$44 @ 88.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$24 @ 60.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$237 @ 52.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$900 @ 73.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$300 @ 64.7¢

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