0x8476…5418

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x847667d84fc4d81db36689c4f4c5845c8d125418
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+19.9pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

43% @ 23.4¢

Brier

0.180

Resolved

865

Avg size

$158

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	41% (18/44)	+19%	44
Other	36% (15/42)	+1%	42
Sports	100% (4/4)	+62%	4
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	+2%	4
Economy	100% (1/1)	+17%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+72%	1

Politics44 bets
Hit rate
41% (18/44)
ROI
+19%
Other42 bets
Hit rate
36% (15/42)
ROI
+1%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+62%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+2%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+17%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+72%

Track record

43% hit · 41/96

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	No	$219	73.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$599	20.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$7.8k	85.8¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$12	0.2¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	9.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.2k	11.1¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$819	82.0¢	Won
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$12	2.1¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$441	88.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$482	5.4¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$7	0.9¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Yes	$89	16.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$3.7k	88.4¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$200	2.0¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$46	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$21	0.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$9.7k	88.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	45.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$579	58.0¢	Won
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$649	65.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$48	2.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$590	59.0¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$769	77.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$60	1.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$104	0.3¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$1.5k	22.8¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$15.0k	84.5¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$316	15.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$800	80.0¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$10.2k	78.3¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$52	0.7¢	Lost
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$178	88.9¢	Won
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?	Yes	$13	1.3¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$11	0.1¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$355	64.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.1k	87.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$300	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$4.6k	84.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5.6k	28.2¢	Won
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	Yes	$114	81.0¢	Won
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	$214	4.6¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$35	7.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$311	14.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Yes	$799	80.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$50	1.8¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.2k	66.1¢	Won
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$160	0.3¢	Lost

Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Won
No$219 @ 73.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$599 @ 20.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$7.8k @ 85.8¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.2¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 11.1¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$819 @ 82.0¢
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$441 @ 88.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$482 @ 5.4¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$7 @ 0.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Lost
Yes$89 @ 16.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$3.7k @ 88.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$200 @ 2.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$46 @ 0.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$21 @ 0.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$9.7k @ 88.4¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 45.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$579 @ 58.0¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
No$649 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$48 @ 2.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$590 @ 59.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$769 @ 77.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$60 @ 1.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$104 @ 0.3¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$1.5k @ 22.8¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$15.0k @ 84.5¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$316 @ 15.8¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$800 @ 80.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$10.2k @ 78.3¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$52 @ 0.7¢
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$178 @ 88.9¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?Lost
Yes$13 @ 1.3¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$355 @ 64.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 87.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$300 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$4.6k @ 84.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$5.6k @ 28.2¢
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?Won
Yes$114 @ 81.0¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Lost
No$214 @ 4.6¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 7.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$311 @ 14.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Won
Yes$799 @ 80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 1.8¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 66.1¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$160 @ 0.3¢

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