0x8454…331a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8454f39e7fa6957dfbf1ecc574820ada1c92331a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.2pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

48% @ 44.7¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

2840

Avg size

$308

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (111/354)	-18%	354
Sports	31% (40/130)	+77%	130
Politics	42% (44/104)	+11%	104
Tech	34% (16/47)	-13%	47
Crypto	46% (17/37)	+2%	37
Geopolitics	68% (15/22)	+13%	22
Culture	25% (4/16)	+15%	16
Business	46% (6/13)	-24%	13
Economy	17% (1/6)	-93%	6
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other354 bets
Hit rate
31% (111/354)
ROI
-18%
Sports130 bets
Hit rate
31% (40/130)
ROI
+77%
Politics104 bets
Hit rate
42% (44/104)
ROI
+11%
Tech47 bets
Hit rate
34% (16/47)
ROI
-13%
Crypto37 bets
Hit rate
46% (17/37)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
68% (15/22)
ROI
+13%
Culture16 bets
Hit rate
25% (4/16)
ROI
+15%
Business13 bets
Hit rate
46% (6/13)
ROI
-24%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-93%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

35% hit · 254/730

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?	Yes	$63	70.0¢	Won
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	$16	71.0¢	Won
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?	No	$70	97.8¢	Won
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$216	36.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later?	Yes	$50	2.5¢	Lost
US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	$840	42.0¢	Lost
Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on target	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Tarsier Pharma not IPO before September 2026?	No	$18	6.0¢	Lost
Norway vs. England: O/U 1.5	Under	$514	34.2¢	Lost
Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on target	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on target	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Yassine Bounou: 4+ saves	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots on target	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Under	$1.2k	48.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by July 31?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?	Yes	$9	0.6¢	Lost
Simu Liu as Shang-Chi?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $14B by July 31?	Yes	$10	1.7¢	Lost
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by July 31?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	Under	$885	59.0¢	Lost
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Under	$2.0k	50.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-01?	No	$1.3k	44.0¢	Lost
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by July 31?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4.5B by July 31?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5	Under	$1.1k	21.5¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Under	$1.1k	54.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?	Yes	$644	46.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026?	Yes	$6	1.0¢	Lost
Will Tems perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	$8	2.5¢	Lost
Will Jordan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%?	Yes	$18	18.0¢	Lost
Will Panama reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?	Yes	$34	1.7¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$78	23.0¢	Lost
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11?	Yes	$34	17.0¢	Lost
Will Future perform "Wicked" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony?	Yes	$9	3.0¢	Lost
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Under	$0	0.0¢	Won
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$18	56.0¢	Lost
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	$13	42.0¢	Lost
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	33.0¢	Lost
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$38	17.0¢	Lost
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$29	57.0¢	Lost
Will Teun Koopmeiners score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$160	16.0¢	Lost

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?Won
Yes$63 @ 70.0¢
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?Won
Yes$16 @ 71.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?Won
No$70 @ 97.8¢
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$216 @ 36.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later?Lost
Yes$50 @ 2.5¢
US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos AlcarazLost
Carlos Alcaraz$840 @ 42.0¢
Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on targetLost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on targetLost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Tarsier Pharma not IPO before September 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 6.0¢
Norway vs. England: O/U 1.5Lost
Under$514 @ 34.2¢
Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on targetLost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Antonee Robinson: 1+ shotsLost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on targetLost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on targetLost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on targetLost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on targetLost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Yassine Bounou: 4+ savesLost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on targetLost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots on targetLost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Won
Under$1.2k @ 48.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.6¢
Simu Liu as Shang-Chi?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $14B by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.7¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by July 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5Lost
Under$885 @ 59.0¢
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$2.0k @ 50.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-01?Lost
No$1.3k @ 44.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4.5B by July 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5Lost
Under$1.1k @ 21.5¢
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$1.1k @ 54.0¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?Won
Yes$644 @ 46.0¢
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.0¢
Will Tems perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.5¢
Will Jordan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%?Lost
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Will Panama reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30? Lost
Yes$34 @ 1.7¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$78 @ 23.0¢
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11?Lost
Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
Will Future perform "Wicked" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.0¢
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Won
Under$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$18 @ 56.0¢
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Lost
No$13 @ 42.0¢
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 33.0¢
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$38 @ 17.0¢
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$29 @ 57.0¢
Will Teun Koopmeiners score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$160 @ 16.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	—	Yes	$13.8k	83.8¢
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 139.5	—	Under	$10.5k	45.7¢
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?	—	No	$9.5k	93.6¢
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?	—	No	$9.2k	88.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	—	No	$8.5k	83.4¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	—	Yes	$8.1k	81.8¢
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-22?	—	No	$7.0k	99.8¢
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5	Sports	Under	$6.0k	68.1¢
Nets vs. Pistons	—	Pistons	$5.9k	99.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	—	No	$5.5k	91.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	No	$5.5k	73.3¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.4k	63.9¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Crypto	No	$4.9k	81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.2k	84.5¢
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 162.5	—	Under	$4.1k	50.5¢
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda	—	Carlos Alcaraz	$3.5k	22.2¢
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5	—	Under	$3.0k	60.5¢
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Sports	Iraq	$2.9k	65.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	—	No	$2.9k	48.4¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei	—	Yes	$2.8k	82.6¢
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5	—	Under	$2.8k	30.6¢
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	—	Under	$2.7k	67.0¢
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14?	—	Yes	$2.5k	49.8¢
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	—	Yes	$2.5k	82.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	—	Yes	$2.2k	70.0¢
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	Sports	Under	$2.2k	59.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.1k	23.8¢
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	—	No	$2.0k	70.5¢
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	—	Under	$2.0k	50.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?	—	No	$2.0k	97.6¢

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?—
Yes$13.8k @ 83.8¢
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 139.5—
Under$10.5k @ 45.7¢
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?—
No$9.5k @ 93.6¢
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?—
No$9.2k @ 88.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?—
No$8.5k @ 83.4¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?—
Yes$8.1k @ 81.8¢
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-22?—
No$7.0k @ 99.8¢
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5Sports
Under$6.0k @ 68.1¢
Nets vs. Pistons—
Pistons$5.9k @ 99.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?—
No$5.5k @ 91.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
No$5.5k @ 73.3¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$5.4k @ 63.9¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto
No$4.9k @ 81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4.2k @ 84.5¢
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 162.5—
Under$4.1k @ 50.5¢
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda—
Carlos Alcaraz$3.5k @ 22.2¢
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5—
Under$3.0k @ 60.5¢
Spread: Norway (-2.5)Sports
Iraq$2.9k @ 65.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?—
No$2.9k @ 48.4¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei—
Yes$2.8k @ 82.6¢
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5—
Under$2.8k @ 30.6¢
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5—
Under$2.7k @ 67.0¢
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14?—
Yes$2.5k @ 49.8¢
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?—
Yes$2.5k @ 82.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?—
Yes$2.2k @ 70.0¢
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5Sports
Under$2.2k @ 59.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2.1k @ 23.8¢
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?—
No$2.0k @ 70.5¢
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5—
Under$2.0k @ 50.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?—
No$2.0k @ 97.6¢