← Smart money
0x8454…331a
SharpROI
+14%
Win rate
41%
Brier
0.113
Resolved
454
Avg size
$200
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 67% (2/3) | +7% | 3 |
| Other | 50% (1/2) | +0% | 2 |
| Business | 50% (1/2) | +8% | 2 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +27% | 1 |
| Tech | 100% (1/1) | +6% | 1 |
- Geopolitics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +7%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +0%
- Business2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +8%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +27%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +6%
Track record
67% hit · 6/9| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7? | No | $299 | 99.8¢ | Won |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7? | Yes | $0 | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.75B and $3B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | $70 | 25.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.25B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | $22 | 22.0¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $4.3k | 78.5¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $189 | 94.6¢ | Won |
| Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $0 | 0.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | No | $677 | 93.5¢ | Won |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | $2.8k | 94.7¢ | Won |
- No$299 @ 99.8¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$70 @ 25.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
- No$4.3k @ 78.5¢
- No$189 @ 94.6¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
- No$677 @ 93.5¢
- Yes$2.8k @ 94.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- Yes$15.0k @ 50.0¢
- No$15.0k @ 50.0¢
- No$9.9k @ 98.7¢
- No$9.6k @ 96.1¢
- Will Iran Play in the World Cup?GeopoliticsYes$9.2k @ 87.5¢
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?PoliticsNo$7.2k @ 83.3¢
- No$7.0k @ 92.3¢
- No$5.5k @ 51.8¢
- No$5.5k @ 73.3¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$5.4k @ 63.9¢
- No$4.9k @ 81.0¢
- No$4.7k @ 85.9¢
- No$3.8k @ 93.7¢
- No$3.0k @ 74.1¢
- No$2.8k @ 97.0¢
- No$2.8k @ 80.7¢
- No$2.5k @ 94.0¢
- Anthropic$2.5k @ 83.0¢
- No$2.5k @ 82.0¢
- No$2.4k @ 83.7¢
- No$2.0k @ 98.4¢
- $60$1.9k @ 93.0¢
- No$1.9k @ 88.0¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 57.1¢
- No$1.7k @ 90.3¢
- No$1.5k @ 98.0¢
- No$1.4k @ 96.4¢
- No$1.4k @ 93.0¢
- Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?GeopoliticsNo$1.3k @ 83.0¢
- No$1.3k @ 89.0¢