0x8454…331a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8454f39e7fa6957dfbf1ecc574820ada1c92331a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.8pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

49% @ 46.4¢

Brier

0.131

Resolved

2403

Avg size

$326

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (82/200)	-19%	200
Sports	41% (36/87)	+103%	87
Politics	53% (42/80)	+11%	80
Tech	43% (12/28)	-6%	28
Crypto	57% (12/21)	+2%	21
Geopolitics	65% (13/20)	+12%	20
Culture	23% (3/13)	+16%	13
Business	33% (2/6)	-46%	6
Economy	20% (1/5)	-88%	5

Other200 bets
Hit rate
41% (82/200)
ROI
-19%
Sports87 bets
Hit rate
41% (36/87)
ROI
+103%
Politics80 bets
Hit rate
53% (42/80)
ROI
+11%
Tech28 bets
Hit rate
43% (12/28)
ROI
-6%
Crypto21 bets
Hit rate
57% (12/21)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics20 bets
Hit rate
65% (13/20)
ROI
+12%
Culture13 bets
Hit rate
23% (3/13)
ROI
+16%
Business6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-46%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-88%

Track record

44% hit · 203/460

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$3.5k	78.9¢	Won
Will Timothée Chalamet be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	Yes	$7	2.1¢	Lost
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 144.5	Under	$96	49.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$28.0k	78.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$2.4k	83.0¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$6.1k	77.2¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1.4k	24.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$9.7k	77.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$37	23.0¢	Lost
Spread: Clippers (-13.5)	Kings	$1.0k	49.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$900	3.0¢	Lost
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	No	$308	86.0¢	Won
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	Yes	$3	7.0¢	Lost
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Under	$1.0k	52.7¢	Won
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?	No	$445	83.0¢	Won
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$299	14.9¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$21.5k	68.2¢	Won
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5	Under	$1.1k	54.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$464	75.9¢	Won
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-15?	No	$29	56.0¢	Won
Will Doja Cat be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	Yes	$64	64.0¢	Lost
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	$996	33.0¢	Lost
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$100	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$8.4k	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$465	4.7¢	Lost
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$66	2.2¢	Lost
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?	No	$751	49.3¢	Won
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$60	20.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$3.7k	74.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$150	3.0¢	Lost
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5	Over	$1.0k	50.0¢	Lost
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B?	No	$87	56.0¢	Won
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?	Yes	$53	8.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	No	$20	0.1¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	Yes	$48	0.8¢	Lost
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$291	80.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	No	$190	88.0¢	Won
Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$7	1.8¢	Lost
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Under	$2.2k	53.2¢	Won
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$4	0.9¢	Lost
Will Yesway’s market cap be between $600M and $700M at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$443	12.5¢	Lost
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$1.7k	85.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$38.8k	87.9¢	Won
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?	Yes	$90	3.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?	No	$267	88.9¢	Won
Will Statler Wright win Saddle Bronc Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?	Yes	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$1.1k	47.0¢	Won
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$3.5k @ 78.9¢
Will Timothée Chalamet be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.1¢
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 144.5Won
Under$96 @ 49.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$28.0k @ 78.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$2.4k @ 83.0¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$6.1k @ 77.2¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 24.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$9.7k @ 77.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 23.0¢
Spread: Clippers (-13.5)Lost
Kings$1.0k @ 49.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$900 @ 3.0¢
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Won
No$308 @ 86.0¢
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5Won
Under$1.0k @ 52.7¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?Won
No$445 @ 83.0¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$299 @ 14.9¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$21.5k @ 68.2¢
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5Won
Under$1.1k @ 54.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$464 @ 75.9¢
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-15?Won
No$29 @ 56.0¢
Will Doja Cat be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?Lost
Yes$64 @ 64.0¢
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLost
Cavaliers$996 @ 33.0¢
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$8.4k @ 84.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$465 @ 4.7¢
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$66 @ 2.2¢
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?Won
No$751 @ 49.3¢
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$60 @ 20.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$3.7k @ 74.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$150 @ 3.0¢
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B?Won
No$87 @ 56.0¢
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?Lost
Yes$53 @ 8.0¢
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 0.1¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?Lost
Yes$48 @ 0.8¢
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$291 @ 80.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Won
No$190 @ 88.0¢
Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.8¢
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Won
Under$2.2k @ 53.2¢
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.9¢
Will Yesway’s market cap be between $600M and $700M at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$443 @ 12.5¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 85.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$38.8k @ 87.9¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?Lost
Yes$90 @ 3.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?Won
No$267 @ 88.9¢
Will Statler Wright win Saddle Bronc Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$1.1k @ 47.0¢
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	No	$5.5k	73.3¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Crypto	No	$4.9k	81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.2k	84.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.1k	23.8¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	89.0¢
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.2k	65.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.2k	58.5¢
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$1000	87.4¢
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$924	84.0¢
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?	Crypto	$60	$915	89.6¢
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch	Crypto	Yes	$814	63.4¢
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$759	94.9¢
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027?	Crypto	No	$555	59.0¢
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$462	66.0¢
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$450	90.0¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI?	Tech	No	$372	93.0¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?	Business	Yes	$362	12.0¢
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$362	59.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$345	17.0¢
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$340	85.0¢
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$300	60.0¢
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$300	75.0¢
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$297	93.5¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Tech	No	$286	96.0¢
Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$230	96.5¢
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$215	63.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$211	52.0¢
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	No	$176	43.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?	Politics	No	$158	90.0¢
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$147	49.0¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
No$5.5k @ 73.3¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto
No$4.9k @ 81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4.2k @ 84.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2.1k @ 23.8¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 89.0¢
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Crypto
No$1.2k @ 65.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$1.2k @ 58.5¢
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$1000 @ 87.4¢
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$924 @ 84.0¢
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?Crypto
$60$915 @ 89.6¢
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launchCrypto
Yes$814 @ 63.4¢
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$759 @ 94.9¢
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027?Crypto
No$555 @ 59.0¢
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
Yes$462 @ 66.0¢
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027?Crypto
Yes$450 @ 90.0¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI?Tech
No$372 @ 93.0¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?Business
Yes$362 @ 12.0¢
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$362 @ 59.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
Yes$345 @ 17.0¢
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$340 @ 85.0¢
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
Yes$300 @ 60.0¢
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto
No$300 @ 75.0¢
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?Crypto
No$297 @ 93.5¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Tech
No$286 @ 96.0¢
Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch?Crypto
No$230 @ 96.5¢
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
No$215 @ 63.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
No$211 @ 52.0¢
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
No$176 @ 43.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?Politics
No$158 @ 90.0¢
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
Yes$147 @ 49.0¢